Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
There will be a lot to repair and rejuvenate -- if that opportunity even presents itself, warns Rathin Roy.
For all its claims to economic glory, the majority of India's population lives vulnerable lives, a situation that has only worsened over the past 15 years, to the extent that the government now fears to release economic data or even conduct a proper Census, notes Rathin Roy.
Every patriot should learn from our history and recognise that celebrating size will neither negate nor obscure the huge economic challenges that India faces, asserts Rathin Roy.
Tharoor said he learnt of the new word pogonotrophy, which means the growing or cultivation of a beard, from a friend.
By any economic theory or doctrine, this is no Budget that supports economic recovery, whether through supporting aggregate demand, or through expansionary stimulus, declares Rathin Roy.
Headed by NITI Aayog member Bibek Debroy, the EAC includes NITI Aayog's Principal Advisor Ratan Watal as its member and economists Surjit Bhalla, Rathin Roy and Ashima Goyal as part-time members.
There are several welcome standalone reforms, but these do not add up to a coherent strategy to achieve a $5 trillion economy or secure Aatmanirbharta, observes Rathin Roy.
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
We import from China not because we love China, but because they sell us these things at cheap prices, points out Rathin Roy.
''Even without major reforms, with a business as usual scenario, and with current inflation trends, we should be clocking around 11 to 12 per cent nominal growth.' 'That is not happening and is a source of worry,' Rathin Roy tells Arup Roychoudhury.
Among possible new members, former chief economic advisor Arvind Virmani's name is doing the rounds.
Rumours in the bureaucracy on his successor include the names of Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan, Rathin Roy of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse and the principal economic advisor, Sanjeev Sanyal.
'The coronavirus epidemic highlights the need to start thinking more actively about multilateral coordination, including, but not confined to, health emergencies and climate uncertainties,' says Rathin Roy.
'Event management can distract from, but not permanently mask, execution failures,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has approved composition of the 7th Pay Commission, which will revise the salaries of over 50 lakh Central government employees.
Sajjid Chenoy, India economist at JP Morgan is the new part-time member.
Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister has identified ten themes, including economic growth and job creations that need attention.
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
The council wants the government to stick to its fiscal consolidation road map.
Inclusive growth is about enabling wider participation in the growth story, but the current if fiscal debate is about how to compensate losers using annual Budgets, says Rathin Roy.
The FRBM report, to be submitted on Tuesday, is likely to have 'excuse clauses', absolving the government of meeting its fiscal commitments under certain conditions such as war or conflict, global economic meltdowns or natural disasters.
The Centre is grappling with the question of its fiscal roadmap not only for this year but for 2018-19
An official said that people in the government were aware of the benefits as well as the drawbacks of issuing overseas sovereign bonds, and there will be consultations with all stakeholders.
The current salary paid by the Delhi government amounts to 17 per cent of the total expenditure.
Over 15 years, with seven per cent growth, the Indian economy will be three times bigger.
energy is India's binding supply-side constraint for inclusive growth.
If oil prices rise, the government would face an uncomfortable political decision.
'In a serious fiscal situation like this, an ostrich-like focus on annual budgeting, event management and defensive rhetoric will only make matters worse,' warns Rathin Roy.
The RBI expects change, presumably commencing in the next Budget, but must hold its current view until this actually happens.
Poor predictability, credibility and effectiveness of fiscal performance have been key reasons for successive governments failing to deliver on their promises.
In a paper, EAC-PM accused Subramanian of "cherry-picking high-frequency indicators" to express his skepticism about the growth rates after 2011-12.
Concerned by GDP slowdown and unrealistic tax targets, the economists urged Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to implement long-term structural steps like land and labour reforms. Warning against any off-Budget financing the economists said the government should prepare a statement of intent for its social, rural and welfare sector expenditure.
The recent agreement between the RBI and the Centre marks a significant step forward toward financial inclusion.
BJP's reversals in rural Gujarat has prompted many policy watchers to predict that the Budget would have incentives for the agriculture sector and the rural economy.
The government has at last commenced important structural reforms.
Most forecasts do not have a track record of transparency and accuracy
'The Budget numbers presented severely underestimate the magnitude of the unstated fiscal crisis that we went through in 2018-2019, which cannot be conceivably be fully reversed in 2019-2020,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
'We have to stop thinking about GDP and look at the impact on output and unemployment.' 'And that is not going to be insignificant.'
'We are not able to manufacture even low-end products as cheaply as China.' 'We are not buying Chinese goods today out of any love for China.'
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