As the fight for deposits intensifies, the cost of money will rise and the margin will be under further pressure, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The second quarter results of banks show that net profits for the industry increased 57 per cent annually. The private sector banks recorded a 64 per cent rise in profits, whereas the net profits of public sector banks jumped 50 per cent in this period. A significant portion of this increase can be attributed to the rise in credit costs and a decline in non-performing assets (NPAs).
For over a decade, HDFC Bank consistently outperformed industry growth rates in both deposits and advances, maintaining impeccable asset quality. Amid a landscape where other banks struggled with soaring non-performing assets (NPAs), HDFC Bank thrived, eventually surpassing ICICI Bank to become the largest private sector lender in India. Its net interest margin (NIM) remained stable in the range of 4.1-4.4 per cent.
Human resource, or HR, development is one of the key portfolios that K C Chakrabarty handles as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor.
There was no smooth surge in middle class prosperity for foreign businesses to tap into because of the Indian economy was mismanaged, argues Debashis Basu.
If they are made accountable, bad loan cases will shrink dramatically, recoveries will rise, and the NCLT process will be more manageable, asserts Debashis Basu.
The size of Reserve Bank's balance sheet increased by 11.08 per cent to Rs 70.47 lakh crore as on March 2024, leading to the highest-ever dividend payout to the government, according to the central bank's annual report. In actual terms, the increase was Rs 7,02,946.97 crore over Rs 63.45 lakh crore as on March 2023.
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
India's economic growth prospects should remain strong over the medium term, with GDP expanding 6-7.1 per cent annually in fiscal years 2024-2026, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. In a report titled 'Global Banks Country-By-Country Outlook 2024', S&P said the banking sector's weak loans will decline to 3-3.5 per cent of gross advances by March 31, 2025, on the back of structural improvement, including healthy corporate balance sheets, tighter underwriting standards and improved risk-management practices. Interest rates in India are unlikely to rise materially, and this should limit the risk for the banking industry, it added.
The National Pension System (NPS) added 21.5 per cent fewer fresh subscribers under the corporate segment in 2023 compared to the preceding year. Government officials and experts attribute it to the higher exemption limit of income tax of Rs 7 lakh announced in the FY24 Budget that no more requires employees under this income bracket to opt for NPS for tax-saving purposes. Data collated from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) reveals that the corporate component is voluntary in nature and saw 158,212 new subscribers in 2023 compared to 201,517 during 2022.
Notwithstanding the recent sharp decline in the stocks of public sector companies, analysts at Jefferies remain bullish on this segment. State Bank of India, Coal India, and NTPC are their top picks in this space, they said in a recent note. The public sector undertaking (PSU) or state-owned enterprise (SOE) index, with a 70-percentage-point outperformance versus the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 over the past 12 months, comes after a decade of underperformance before 2020.
Postings to places at an altitude above 1,000 metres but less than 1,500 metres, between 1,500 and 3,000 metres, and above 3,000 metres entail different rates of allowances -- the higher the location, the bigger the allowance, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
It has mostly been a one-way street for smallcap stocks that have taken it on their chin thus far in February. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has shed 3.2 per cent in the current month as compared to the 1.8 per cent decline in the Nifty Midcap 100 and the 0.5 per cent drop in the Nifty 50 index, data showed. Technically, the index has slipped below its 20-day moving average (DMA) placed at 14,800 levels on Monday, and is currently testing the 50-DMA, and is placed at 14,278 levels.
The biggest bounce is in the realty sector, where the industry index jumped 80%. There's been a turnaround also in automobiles and ancillaries (up 45%). The pharma and health care indices have a welcome return of roughly 35%.
'If the NDA comes to power with 320-330 plus seats, then we could see some correction. We could possibly see a level of 19,500 to 20,000.' 'If the NDA comes to power with a majority of 400-plus, we could see the markets going to about 23,500-24,000 levels.' 'And from there we could see some correction because markets are expensive at this point of time and a correction is overdue.'
As the policy rate has seen a steady increase since May 2022, the percentage of loans offered at interest rates below 8 per cent have declined sharply, dropping from 53 per cent in March 2022 to 18 per cent by June 2023, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The share of bank loans with interest rates of 10 per cent or higher rose from 22 per cent to 34 per cent during this period, reflecting the impact of a 250 basis point (bps) hike in the policy repo rate by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee. In response to the rise in repo rate, 32 domestic banks have made corresponding upward revisions to their repo-linked external benchmark-based lending rates (EBLRs), aligning them with the magnitude of the rate hike.
Moody's Investor Service on Tuesday said banks' exposures to Adani are not large enough to affect their credit quality materially. "While we estimate that the exposures are larger for public sector banks than for private sector banks, they are smaller than 1 per cent of total loans for most banks," it said. "Risks for banks can increase if Adani becomes more reliant on bank loans."
Former RBI governor D Subbarao has suggested that the government should come up with a 10-year road map for privatisation of all Public Sector Banks (PSBs) as it would provide much needed predictability to stakeholders. Subbarao further said that the big bang approach to privatisation of state-owned banks is not desirable but at the same time the issue should not be put on the back burner. "Ideally, we should have a road map, maybe over a 10 year timeframe, to privatise all PSBs. "That will give much needed predictability to all stakeholders," he told PTI.
The top 50 exposures, amounting to Rs 7.8 trillion, of government-registered non-banking financial companies (G-NBFCs) constitute about 40 per cent of corporate credit within the NBFC sector, indicating concentration risk, according to the Reserve Bank of India's report "Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23". Notably, all the 50 are tied to the power sector, a domain fraught with inherent challenges, the report said. The report highlighted recognising the escalating systemic importance of G-NBFCs, the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework had been expanded to include G-NBFCs excluding those falling within the base layer.
The rally in the equity markets in the second half of 2023 has led to a sharp surge in the cutoff for stocks to qualify as largecaps and midcaps. On the latest list put out by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), the smallest largecap stock now has a market capitalisation (m-cap) of Rs 67,000 crore, 35 per cent higher than in July 2023. In the case of midcaps, the cutoff has surged 26 per cent to Rs 22,000 crore.
Polarisation in the performance of Indian banks will persist as many large public sector banks are still saddled with weak assets, high credit costs, and poor earnings, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said State Bank of India and leading private sector banks have largely addressed their asset quality challenges, and their profitability is improving more sharply than the banking system. In its Global Banking Outlook-2023 report, S&P said economic recovery is driving credit costs to cyclical low levels and stronger balance sheets and higher demand should boost bank loan growth, but deposit growth will lag.
After the finance minister directed public sector banks to join the account aggregator (AA) ecosystem, 5-6 major ones, including State Bank of India (SBI) and Bank of Baroda are expected to go live by July-end. Sahmati, an industry alliance for the AA ecosystem, has been working with PSU banks to get them onboarded for quite some time now. So far, Union Bank of India and Punjab National Bank (PNB) have gone live on the AA ecosystem. While Union Bank has been live for a while, PNB went live earlier this month.
Loan against gold as a product is catching on fast. Let's keep the momentum going, but aim for sustainable growth. A few bad apples should not ruin the brunch, argues Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The governor made it clear that the RBI is aware of what's happening and acts accordingly, but doesn't make a noise about that, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Try to buy a policy with a lower sum assured or one with a deductible.' 'Those whose spouses work for companies must get themselves enrolled into the employer's group health cover.' 'Some public sector banks also offer group health covers to those who open a savings account with them.'
Public sector banks have raked in more profits in the three months ended June on the back of a persistent decline in bad loans and the trend may have a positive bearing on their balance sheets in the coming quarters. In the June quarter, Bank of Maharashtra (BoM) and State Bank of India (SBI) were in the lowest quartile as far as Gross Non Performing Assets (NPAs) and net NPAs were concerned, according to an analysis of the quarterly financial numbers published by the public sector lenders. Cumulatively, all the 12 public sector banks reported a profit of about Rs 15,306 crore in the three months ended June, registering an annual growth of 9.2 per cent. However, leading public sector lenders -- SBI and PNB -- posted lower profits in the June quarter.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday reviewed the performance of public sector banks (PSBs) on various financial health parameters and their resilience in the wake of the current global financial scenario emanating from the failure of some international banks in the US and Europe.
>It's not easy to predict the market. But there are at least two positive factors to back the PSU banks, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Lakhs of employees of public sector banks continued their strike on the second day on Friday as well to protest against proposed privatisation of banks by the government impacting normal operation across the country. Shutters of branches across many parts of the country on Friday were down following the strike call given by the United Forum of Bank Union (UFBU), an umbrella body of nine bank unions including All India Bank Officers' Confederation (AIBOC), All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA) and National Organisation of Bank Workers (NOBW). As a result, services such as deposits and withdrawal at branches, cheque clearance and loan approvals remains paralaysed due to the two-day strike ending later in the day.
The United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), an umbrella body of nine unions, has given a call for a two-day strike from December 16 to protest against the proposed privatisation of two state-owned lenders. In the Union Budget presented in February, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced the privatisation of two public sector banks (PSBs) as part of its disinvestment plan. The government has already privatised IDBI Bank by selling its majority stake in the lender to LIC in 2019 and merged 14 public sector banks in the past four years.
The decision by the Reserve Bank of India to introduce a unified regulatory framework on connected lending for all the regulated entities (RE) is expected to reduce the influence of business conglomerates in the Indian lending space, said bankers and experts. "Connected lending pertains to lending to related parties within the same business group. "While the RBI might appear more agreeable to allowing business conglomerates to own banking licenses, it deems it crucial to bolster regulations that would prevent conglomerate-owned banks from gaming the system," said Shivaji Thapliyal, head of research and lead analyst, YES Securities.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said that writing off does not mean "completely waiving the amount" and banks follow up on loans to recover the outstanding dues. "Writing off is not completely waiving the amount. As a part of the accounting process, banks make a provision for the amount, which is due from the NPA account and in that process, we call it as writing off, but the provisioning is made and the pursuing of that particular defaulter or the NPA, which owes money to the bank, is followed up," the minister said answering a query in Lok Sabha.
The government in the Budget 2021-22 has made an allocation of Rs 20,000 crore for the capital infusion in the state-owned banks. The capital position of banks would be reviewed in the next quarter, and depending on the requirement, the infusion will be made to meet the regulatory needs. In the current fiscal so far, all 12 public sector banks have posted a profit, which is being ploughed back to bolster the balance sheet of the banks, sources said.
Lenders in India, comprising banks and finance companies, anticipate robust growth in retail credit during the upcoming festival season, stretching from September to December 2023. This expectation is based on resilient demand, government initiatives, and elections in key states.
'Mumbai main branch (SBI headquarter) has all the data ready-made. It doesn't take even an hour to out the data from the system.'
The information and technology (IT) sector, which has been going through a rough patch lately, was among the top draws for equity mutual funds (MFs) in July. MF schemes together invested a net of Rs 1,800 crores in IT stocks last month after pulling out around Rs 700 crore from the sector in June, according to a report by ICICI Securities.
The talk of governance reforms at public-sector banks seems to remain on paper, as a majority of them continue to be working with just a handful board members. Half of the board seat at these banks have been vacant. Ten of the 12 public-sector banks, even large ones like Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank and Union Bank of India - all except State Bank of India (SBI) and Bank of Baroda - don't even have a chairman. In 2014, while splitting the post of chairman & managing director (CMD), the government had decided to appoint non-executive chairmen at these banks. SBI, which has an executive chairman and four managing directors, was an exception.
Benefitting from the economic rebound, banks are expected to report a healthy bottom-line and asset quality profile in the quarter ended March 2023 (Q4FY23). The net profit of listed commercial banks is projected to grow by an average 43.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4FY23 amid better net interest margins (NIMs) and declining credit costs. This is based on a combined assessment of analyst estimates for 17 banks on Bloomberg database.
The much-awaited Ram temple consecration will be held in Ayodhya on Monday in a grand ceremony with Prime Minister Narendra Modi attending the rituals, following which the shrine will be opened for the public a day later.
The number of fraud cases reported by private banks outnumbered those by public sector banks for the second consecutive year.
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