Developers are entering one of the busiest construction cycles, with the top four firms planning launches worth Rs 1.13 trillion over the near to medium term, even as execution faces pressure from approval delays, labour shortages, rising costs, and contractor capacity limits across the industry.
Top real estate developers reported healthy presales growth in the second quarter of FY26, aided by a steady pipeline of new project launches. While overall housing momentum across major Indian cities moderated during the quarter, listed players remained relatively insulated.
Top real estate developers are expected to report improved earnings and resilient presales growth, even as overall housing sales across major Indian cities declined during the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2025-26. The anticipated earnings growth in what is typically a subdued quarter is credited to steady sustenance sales, improved collections, the strong positioning of listed developers, and sustained demand for premium homes.
India's top listed real estate developers - DLF, Lodha Group, Prestige Estates, and Oberoi Realty, excluding Godrej Properties - reported strong presales growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025-26 (FY26), even as earnings showed a mixed trend. According to Nomura, the top five developers - DLF, Lodha, Prestige, Oberoi, and Godrej - recorded a cumulative 59 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in presales.
Developers based outside Mumbai are making a beeline for India's largest real estate market through redevelopment projects. These include Delhi-based DLF, Bengaluru-based Prestige Estates and Puravankara, Pune-based Kolte-Patil Developers and Vascon Engineers, and Hyderabad-based Ramky Estates.
Bengaluru-based Prestige Estates Projects recently said it aims to double its annual residential sales bookings to Rs 25,000 crore by FY26 from its current markets and others such as Mumbai, Pune and National Capital Region (NCR). The company's chairman and managing director Irfan Razaq tells Raghavendra Kamath about his plans to achieve the target and outlook for the real estate market.
India's top listed real estate developers reported steady growth in Q4FY25, supported by healthy pre-sales, even as earnings reflected signs of moderation amid elevated housing prices and subdued launches.
'Every delay directly increases the cost burden on developers. Land holding charges, financing costs, and compliance expenses escalate as approvals drag on.'
Real estate developers are hoping that the slew of tax concessions announced in Union Budget 2025, set to take effect this financial year, will spur demand for affordable and mid-segment housing, even as the broader housing market shows signs of fatigue.
The national real estate market presents an intriguing picture. Lower volumes and flat pricing serve as dampeners. Sales bookings across the top ten markets have seen 6 per cent growth year-on-year (Y-o-Y) between April and August 2024, but sales volume is down 8 per cent Y-o-Y. Unsold inventory is up.
The recent blip in housing sales on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis should not worry investors as the long-term prospects of real estate stocks remain on a strong foundation, according to analysts. In the first half of the calendar year 2024 (H1CY24), realty stocks surged up to 104 per cent. This sharp run should be used to book partial profit in related stocks, suggested Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities.
After lagging behind benchmarks and broader indices over the past five years, real estate investment trusts (Reits) have outperformed them since the start of 2024. The four listed Reits have posted an average return of 16 per cent year-to-date, compared to 9.9 per cent for the S&P BSE Sensex and 11 per cent for the National Stock Exchange Nifty.
The Indian equity markets will soon account for over a fifth of a key emerging market (EM) benchmark tracked by funds with assets exceeding $500 billion. This development is expected to funnel as much as $3 billion into the domestic markets. Following the latest review undertaken by global index provider MSCI, India's weighting in the MSCI EM index will surpass 20 per cent for the first time, narrowing its gap with the current top-weighted China to fewer than 400 basis points.
CLSA has downgraded select real estate stocks and expects most counters from this sector to consolidate in the months ahead after the sharp run seen in them in the last few months. Most positive factors in terms of a pick-up in housing demand and office space absorption, it said, are already priced in. "We expect housing industry demand to grow around 12 per cent in 2024 and for large developers to outpace industry to grow at 15 - 20 per cent.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
The past 18 months have seen a resurgence in the real estate industry, with developers regaining the ground lost to the Covid-19 pandemic. But it is once again adding inventory at a pace faster than sales. The industry's inventory rose by 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in H1FY24, com-pared to a 25.5 per cent year-on-year increase in net sales during the same period.
'We expect the bull-market phase to still persist, but now led by large-caps which offer better valuation and benefit from FII inflows.'
'We expect continued pressure on midcaps, but any sharp correction looks unlikely from here on.'
The net debt of top eight realty firms fell 43 per cent to Rs 23,000 crore last fiscal, from around Rs 40,000 crore in 2019-20, as their cash flow improved on strong housing sales, according to Anarock. Real estate consultant Anarock noted that the unfettered demand for housing across the country has enabled the country's leading large and listed developers to reduce their debt. Anarock analysed financial performances of the top eight developers engaged in the development of residential real estate.
The S&P BSE Realty Index has emerged as one of the top-performing sectors, yielding a remarkable 45 per cent return over the past six months. The three leading players, listed by market capitalisation, have substantially enriched investor wealth by 43-70 per cent during this period. If the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) updates from Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Sobha, along with industry data for the quarter, serve as any indication, the trend of strong bookings for larger players is expected to continue.
Realty major DLF's chairman Rajiv Singh remains the wealthiest Indian real estate entrepreneur with a wealth of Rs 59,030 crore, according to GROHE-HURUN India. With a wealth of Rs 42,270 crore, Mangal Prabhat Lodha and his family of Mumbai-based Macrotech Developers (Lodha Group) is at the second position. Arjun Menda & family of Bengaluru-based RMZ Corp debuted at the third position on the list, with a wealth of Rs 37,000 crore.
Home prices across the top six cities are set to jump 6-10 per cent this fiscal and 3-5 per cent in the next financial year because of a steep rise in raw material, labour and land costs, and relatively favourable demand-supply dynamics, a report said on Thursday. The report by Crisil also said large residential realtors are on course to log a robust 25 per cent sales growth in 2022-23 and 10-15 per cent in the next fiscal. The unsold inventory level is down to 2.5 years from four years pre-pandemic, and this has credit profile of the large realtors strengthening, the report said.
The real estate sector might have been caught off guard by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, but large listed developers like Godrej Properties and Prestige Estates Projects soldier on undeterred. They aim to have sales bookings of Rs 10,000 crore in the next few years.
Whether it is DLF in the National Capital Region, or Godrej Properties and Oberoi Realty in Mumbai or Sunteck Realty, Prestige Estates and Sobha Realty in Bengaluru, most top players have launched or lined up a slew of new project launches during this season.
Almost all the big mall developers/investors - such as Raheja-owned Inorbit Malls, Xander-APG joint venture Virtuous Retail South Asia (VRSA), property developer Prestige Estates Projects, and Blackstone-owned Nexus Malls - are looking to double their space in a year or two.
'After Covid, people started looking for bigger houses with pools and landscaped gardens.' 'Even middle class buyers are looking at plots of land in smaller towns.'
Investors will maintain a cautious stance.
Despite a 56 per cent fall in residential launches in the first half of the year compared to the second half of 2019, Anarock Property Consultants believes that consolidation in residential real estate is expected to gain ground, and that branded players may garner a market share of 75-80 per cent.
A recent report by Citi had pegged the total amount stuck in stalled projects across seven major Indian cities (Bengaluru, Mumbai Metropolitan region, National Capital Region, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Pune) at Rs 80,000 crore.
Listed realty developers saddled with unsold properties worth Rs 1 trillion
Experts, however, caution that though the moves are positive for the sector as a whole, they don't expect much gain in the near-term.
Some of the country's largest listed real estate developers - DLF, Prestige Estates, and Puravankara - are foraying into the Rs 50,000-crore residential property market of Mumbai, where home prices are among the highest in the world. All of them are set to launch residential projects in the financial capital of the country, where the market is dominated by players such as Runwal, Lodha, and Oberoi Realty, among others. Leading the race is Prestige, which has lined up 6 million square feet (msf) of new launches in the city across Mulund and Byculla in the third quarter of this financial year (2021-22).
Ajit Mishra, vice president, research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
After Maharashtra, analysts expect more states like Karnataka and Haryana to slash stamp duty rates. However, analysts, do caution that it's still a long road to recovery for the realty sector.
The Sensex closed the day at 28,141, up 486 points, while Nifty50 settled at 8,716, up 155 points.
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In his Budget speech, the finance minister said: "We propose to facilitate higher investment in affordable housing. Affordable housing will now be given infrastructure status, which will enable these projects to avail the associated benefits."
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The jewellery industry has welcomed the government's decision to ban old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, saying gold demand will rise as people will have more faith in the precious metal than the currency notes. But the unorganised builders and secondary (resale) property market would be adversely impacted.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
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