Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
With the price of a cylinder touching Rs 800, it's becoming increasingly unaffordable to an already price-sensitive population, threatening to risk one of the most-celebrated campaigns of the Modi regime, reports Twesh Mishra.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly oil market report projected the world's third-biggest energy consumer to add 0.39 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil demand in 2022. India's oil demand rose from 4.51 million barrels per day in 2020 to 4.76 million bpd in 2021, recording a 5.61 per cent growth.
Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Tuesday put state-owned ONGC and OIL on notice saying oil and gas reserves they hold need to be monetised through joint ventures with domain experts or the government will take them away and auction them. Speaking at BNEF Summit, he said state-owned firms cannot indefinitely sit on resources when the nation is a net importer of oil and gas. Despite India bidding out acreages to private and other companies since the 1990s, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) hold a "sizeable number of acreage for years," he said.
Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
India's crude oil import bill is set to exceed $100 billion in the current fiscal year ending March 31, almost double its spending last year, as international oil prices trade at seven-year highs. India spent $94.3 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of the ongoing financial year that started April 1, 2021, according to data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). It spent $11.6 billion in January alone when oil prices had started to surge.
Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, rose to $130.50 per barrel on Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. The international benchmark, Brent crude, hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008.
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
The government on Thursday more than doubled the price of natural gas that is used to produce electricity, make fertilisers, turned into CNG and piped to household kitchens for cooking, on the back of a spike in global energy prices. The price of gas produced from old regulated fields, such as the nation's largest gas field of Bassein of ONGC, will rise to a record high of $6.10 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) from the current $2.90 per mmBtu, according to the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The new price, which is likely to result in a hike in CNG and piped cooking gas rates, will be for six months beginning April 1.
India may see a structural shift in supplies of crude oil with Russia emerging as a key source of fuels, a development that reduces New Delhi's dependence on West Asian oil, gives Indian refiners better bargaining power with price-setter Saudi Arabia, and improves overall energy security. The unexpected surge in supplies of Russian crude in the last few months, unthinkable until the war in Ukraine, may also deliver other unforeseen gains such as boosting exports of refined fuels to Europe, which historically has counted on Russian shipments. India has jumped on to the bandwagon of opportunistic buying of Russian crude but if calibrated carefully, Urals crude can be a long-term asset for India refiners.
Valuers have found almost no assets to pay for their claims against the Videocon group that entered the insolvency process in 2018. But the dissenters suggest that the money is elsewhere, possibly in the group's oil and gas assets, which are not part of the group's bankruptcy case.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
The agency has registered the FIR after a preliminary enquiry on a complaint from the oil ministry.
The government is pushing the public sector behemoth ONGC to involve private sector companies and service providers wherever possible to help raise oil and gas production, Petroleum Secretary Tarun Kapoor said Thursday. Kapoor's comments came days after the second-highest ranked official in his ministry asked Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) to give away a 60 per cent stake plus operating control in India's largest oil and gas producing fields of Mumbai High and Bassein to foreign companies. "ONGC has to explore more so that it can discover more oil and gas reserves and bring them quickly to production to raise domestic output. The government is very clear that ONGC has to do more," he told reporters.
India on Monday lost the ONGC Videsh Ltd-discovered Farzad-B gas field in the Persian Gulf after Iran awarded a contract for developing the giant gas field to a local company. "The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has signed a contract worth $1.78 billion with Petropars Group for the development of Farzad B Gas Field in the Persian Gulf," the Iranian oil ministry's official news service Shana reported. "The deal was signed on Monday, May 17, in a ceremony held in the presence of Iranian Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh in Tehran." The field holds 23 trillion cubic feet of in-place gas reserves, of which about 60 per cent is recoverable.
The petroleum ministry has told ONGC to give away 60%stake plus operating control in India's largest oil and gas producing fields of Mumbai High and Bassein to foreign companies, according to an October 28 letter to the state-owned company. Amar Nath, additional secretary (exploration) in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, wrote a 3-page letter to ONGC chairman and managing director Subhash Kumar, saying productivity of the Mumbai High and Bassein & Satellite (B&S) offshore assets under state-owned firm was low and international partners should be invited and given 60 per cent participating interest (PI) and operatorship. This is the second time since April that Nath, who is part of the ONGC management as the longest-serving government nominee director on its board and often considered a potential candidate to replace Kumar next year, has written an official letter, painting a poor picture of the company's performance.
The government on Thursday hiked by 62 per cent the price of natural gas that is used to produce electricity, make fertilisers and turned into CNG to use as fuel in automobiles and cooking gas for household kitchens. This is the first increase in rates since April 2019 and comes on back of firming benchmark international prices but does not reflect the spurt in spot or current price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) witnessed during the last couple of weeks. The oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) said the rates paid for gas produced from fields given to state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL) will be $2.90 per million British thermal unit for the six-month period beginning April 1.
The ministry of petroleum and natural gas has granted seven authorisations to companies for selling automobile (auto) fuels in the country. These new approvals are under the relaxed guidelines for authorisation to market transportation fuels that were revised in 2019. This is expected to make the competition more intense in India's petroleum retail business. According to a top oil ministry official, a fresh marketing authorisation has been granted to Reliance Industries (RIL) under these norms. This is being done since RIL's existing retail marketing authorisation has been transferred to its subsidiary Reliance BP Mobility
India's fuel demand in May slumped to its lowest in nine months as restrictions to curb the second wave of COVID infections stalled mobility and muted economic activity. Fuel demand fell 1.5 per cent to 15.1 million tonnes despite the low base of May 2020 and was down 11.3 per cent when compared to the previous month, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry. India was under one of the world's strictest lockdowns in May last year, which brought all mobility and economic activity to a grinding halt.
Sale of diesel, the most consumed fuel in the country, fell 12 per cent, while petrol sales fell 7.4 per cent year-on-year to 2.38 million tonnes although it rose 5.3 per cent from 2.26 million tonnes in July as commuters preferred driving to using public transportation.
With domestic retail fuel prices jumping to record high on rising international oil rates, India on Thursday pressed oil cartel OPEC for 'affordable' oil price within a 'reasonable band' and that the producers should phase out production cuts. OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia have traditionally been India's principal oil source. But, OPEC and its allies, called OPEC+, ignoring its call for ease supply curbs had led to the world's third-biggest oil importer tap newer sources to diversify its crude oil imports. As a result, OPEC's share in India's oil imports has dropped to about 60 per cent in May from 74 per cent in the previous month.
The companies want to drill exploration wells in already producing oil and gas fields.
Softening its stand on CAG audit, Reliance Industries has agreed to a scrutiny of its expenses in the flagging KG-D6 gas block by the official auditor even after expiry of the contractual period.
Natural Gas production from KG-D6 block has dropped to 25.35 million standard cubic meters a day this month, from over 63 mmscmd peak output achieved in August 2010.
The Comptroller and Auditor General of India had called an Entry Conference with RIL and the Oil Ministry on Wednesday to begin its second round of audit that is to cover RIL's spending on KG-D6 gas fields during 2008-09 to 2011-12.
Directorate General of Hydrocarbons Director General Rajiv Nayan Choubey did not take calls made for comments.
Upstream regulator DGH has suggested that the $1.235-billion investment of Reliance Industries should be disallowed over the Mukesh Ambani-run firm's failure to adhere to prestated drilling and gas production targets, but the oil ministry is yet to agree on the numbers.
The spurt in rates, caused by the rally in international oil prices, has led to the oil ministry asking the finance ministry for a cut in excise duty in the Union Budget 2018-19, to be presented in Parliament next week.
India has rejected a request from BP Plc to be allowed to sell jet fuel to the booming aviation market.
Days after a CAG draft report said his firm got out of turn favours from the oil ministry and its technical arm DGH, Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani on Friday met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the target date for achieving 20 per cent ethanol-blending with petrol has been advanced by five years to 2025 to cut pollution and reduce import dependence.
The committee on allocation of natural resources said in its draft report said, "In the ideal scenario, a gas pooling arrangement, with a view to mitigate price volatility is not recommended".
Steel manufacturers on Wednesday hit out at 'unilateral' decision of the Oil Ministry to curb natural gas supplies from Reliance Industries' KG-D6 fields to non-core users, saying only a ministerial panel was empowered to take such decision.
Oil ministry will move Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs once comments from ministries of finance, law, home, environment and corporate affairs are received.
Although the Oil Ministry has the authority to decide on Reliance selling 30 per cent interest to BP in 23 exploration blocks, including the prize eastern offshore KG-D6 gas fields, the ministry on Tuesday decided to refer the deal to the CCEA, sources privy to the development said.
Strengthening the portfolios of the home minister and the finance minister is a message that should not be missed, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Though the Prime Minister's Office had earlier this month asked the ministry to decide on giving approvals to the $9.6-billion acquisition on merit, the Oil Ministry has slipped in 11 pre-conditions that are unlikely to be accepted by the London-listed firm.
With Cairn Energy Plc voluntarily offering to meet government conditions, the Oil Ministry may find it difficult to nix its deal to sell majority stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources.
UK's Cairn Energy has informed Oil Ministry that it will comply with all contractual obligations in selling majority stake in its Indian arm and that London-listed Vedanta Resources was a fit candidate to take over operations.
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