After enduring volatility for the first two months of calendar year 2016 (CY16), global equity markets have recouped some of the losses in March. Jigar Shah, chief executive officer, Maybank Kim Eng Securities, believes the next triggers for the rally will come from a soft landing in China and no recession situation in the US.
Jigar Shah of KR Choksey Securities says that Reliance Industries' results are by and large as per expectations, except the fact that the other income has gone down and there is an increase in both depreciation and tax.
Jigar Shah, chief executive officer, Maybank Kim Eng Securities is not certain that the DMart listing would trigger a re-rating of the Indian retailing sector.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
'If the third wave of Covid infections is as bad as the second one, the market may get very polarised with a preference for blue-chips with low volatility.'
'The challenge in India will be reviving consumption/investment.' 'If the negative surprise in earnings is very sharp or lasts longer than March, it can trigger a sharp sell-off.'
With the market zooming up one day and plunging the next, analysts think it's best to wait and watch in this volatile situation.
Liquidity issues post the crisis at DHFL, progress of monsoon, rupee trajectory at the domestic level and oil prices are some factors that will keep markets choppy, analysts say.
Even though stocks may remain volatile in the run-up to the polls, as political parties stitch up alliances, the long-term trajectory for the markets remains bullish.
There will be pressure on the fiscal situation, especially at a time when the monsoon can also disappoint. More populist expenditure is on cards if the mandate is a hung Parliament or a coalition government.
Thus far in 2017-18, FIIs and MFs have invested Rs 198.91 billion and Rs 1,119.49 billion in the Indian equity markets. Of this, around Rs 152.46 billion has come in January alone.
Internet, tech, infra, realty in India might gain
Besides Budget, markets will be driven by global events and the outcome of assembly elections.
A slow but steady economic uptick can be seen in various segments of the economy. India's economy expanded 4.8 per cent in the second quarter, higher than the preceding quarter's 4.4 per cent.
Tata Steel and Tata Chemicals under investor watch
Growth concerns on China, which has already seen the yuan getting devalued twice in August, have rattled global financial markets, including that of India.
Corporate India's earnings in the past two quarters were largely driven by the rupee's sharp fall versus the dollar in the second quarter of this financial year.
The Indian-American community in the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut tristate area is being targeted by telephone fraudsters.
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