The outcome of the general elections, the Morgan Stanley note says, has enough firepower to sway the markets on either side.
There are good reasons to believe that India is at the start of a long period of growth for equities.
The country's most valuable lender HDFC Bank can perhaps no longer claim to be a favourite of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Two data indicators, both somewhat interconnected, point to this - the diminishing premium of HDFC Bank's American depositary receipts (ADRs) compared to local shares, and the ample investment opportunities available to FPIs in the domestic market. The ADR premium has shrunk to below 5 per cent, down from over 30 per cent in March 2021, and even lower than recent levels.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (FY23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion.
With the Big Four information technology services players having disappointed the Street, the focus is on mid-cap IT players who seem to have met expectations, according to analyst reports and management commentary on the demand environment.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
Equity mutual funds (MFs) deployed maximum in shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) in June at Rs 2,177 crore, followed by Maruti Suzuki (Rs 2,045 crore) and Bharti Airtel (Rs 1,310 crore). Shares of both RIL and Bharti Airtel have been turbulent this month. On July 1, shares of RIL crashed over 7 per cent, following the government imposing windfall taxes on domestic crude oil production and fuel exports.
On the AIM market, Indian companies raised $343 million in 2010, more than any single country, accounting for 19 per cent of all money raised in the calendar year on the market.
The investment objective of the Scheme is to generate long-term capital appreciation from a diversified portfolio of predominantly equity and equity-related securities including equity derivatives.
The government will consider the issue of infusing equity into ailing Air India shortly, Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel said on Thursday.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
After turning net buyers last month, foreign investors have become aggressive shoppers of Indian equities and have invested Rs 22,452 crore in the first two weeks of August amid softening inflation concerns. This was way higher than a net investment of nearly Rs 5,000 crore by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in the entire month of July, data with depositories showed. FPIs had turned net buyers for the first time in July, after nine straight months of massive net outflows, which started in October last year.
A huge market for private equity investment is waiting to be tapped in India and China, the two rapidly growing economies of the world, speakers at the ongoing annual general meeting of Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.
Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
The correction seen in the stock markets thus far is insufficient and there are significant downside risks, given the way macroeconomic data is shaping up, a Nomura equity strategist said on Thursday. "The markets are trying to look through the current stress we see in the macros. There are potential risks to the market. "Our estimates assume no major impact on growth and earnings. "The market should have been at least 5 per cent lower than it is now.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
Iran may offer Indian oil firms equity in its oil and gas fields in return of New Delhi agreeing to buy natural gas from it.\n\n\n\n
In a bid to incentivise its staff and improve their performance, Air India may soon offer them employee stock options (ESOPs). The erstwhile national carrier, which was acquired by the salt-to-steel conglomerate Tata Group last year, will be the second company in the Group to have an ESOP policy. Tata Motors is the other Group company with an ESOP policy, which was implemented in 2018.
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
Will 2022 be a year of contrasting narratives -- one filled with caution and the other with continued optimism?
Omkeshwar Singh, Head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
A lot of mid and small-caps are in the bubble zone and command high valuation and have corrected sharply.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
Mergers & acquisitions started off on a strong footing, hitting a four-year high at $30.3 billion in the first quarter of 2022, bucking the global trend where deal-making fell sharply, says a report. Deal activity grew by 5.6 per cent in value terms in January-March 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021, making it the highest first-quarter period since 2018 when it was $31.1 billion. In volume terms, the M&A activity grew 29.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, making it the best-ever quarterly number, according to the M&A numbers collated by Refinitiv, an LSEG business, which is among the world's largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure. M&As involving domestic companies stood at $23.7 billion, down 8.3 per cent on year.
Analysts caution against volatility and recommend buying stocks of companies that are on strong fundamental footing that have been beaten down badly in the recent carnage.
So which sectors are likely to do well in 2022? Should you focus on domestic economy-related sectors or export-oriented ones?
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
Omkeshwar Singh, head, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
These unicorns, or startups valued at over USD 1 billion, are across industries, beyond technology and tech-enabled sectors as well, like pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, Credit Suisse India equity strategist Neelkanth Mishra told reporters in Mumbai.
'Indian macro conditions have never been better, and many businesses will safely compound earnings over the next five years.'
The deluge of offerings in the primary market, a muted results season and increasing talks of a Fed taper may quicken the pace of overseas investors selling Indian equities in the near term. The next few weeks may see a dozen companies tap the market for initial public offerings and raise about Rs 30,000 crore. These include the likes of Zomato, Glenmark Life Sciences, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank and Seven Islands Shipping.
'In the overall global portfolio, India's weighting has come down in the past seven months.'
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