Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
The India-US trade deal has offered a much-needed breather for the Indian information technology (IT) industry, which has been grappling with global macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued client spending over the past few years.
Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
The country's primary capital markets delivered a robust performance in FY26, emerging as a global leader in initial public offerings (IPOs) despite an uncertain environment, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
FPIs net sold equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion in 2025 -- the highest annual net sale on record.
2025 marked a shift in investor preference when it comes to MF schemes.
'The first time India has seen two consecutive blockbuster IPO years.'
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
This marks the strongest DRHP filing tally since 1996, when 428 firms sought to enter India's equity markets.
Foreign investors continue to exhibit confidence in the country's equity market, injecting Rs 19,860 crore in May driven by favourable global economic indicators and strong domestic fundamentals. This positive momentum follows a net investment of Rs 4,223 crore in April, data with the depositories showed.
'When you have the best market at your doorstep, international diversification is a distraction.'
The interplay between domestic and foreign capital will shape India's equity markets.
Foreign brokerages remain cautious on the road ahead for the Indian equity markets. Though analysts at Nomura have revised their March 2026 Nifty target to 26,140 levels from the earlier 24,970, but the upside from the current levels is a modest 6 per cent. BofA Securities, on the other hand, has not made any change to its year-end Nifty target.
Foreign investors continue to show confidence in the country's equity market, infusing Rs 18,620 crore so far this month, driven by a combination of global tailwinds and improving domestic fundamentals. This positive momentum follows a net investment of Rs 4,223 crore in April, marking the first inflow in three months, data with the depositories showed.
Foreign investors continue to show confidence in the country's equity market, infusing Rs 14,167 crore so far this month, largely driven by favourable global cues and robust domestic fundamentals. Notably, this inflow has come despite the ongoing military tensions between India and Pakistan.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
Markets regulator Sebi has notified a stricter regulatory framework for small and medium enterprise (SME) IPOs by introducing a profitability requirement and capping a 20 per cent limit on offer-for-sale (OFS). The reforms aim to provide SMEs with a sound track record an opportunity to raise funds from the public while protecting investor interests. This move follows a rise in SME issues, which has driven significant investor participation.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
India is among the three least-favoured Asian stock markets, according to BofA Securities whose survey found that 10 per cent of fund managers are underweight on Indian equities from a 12-month perspective.
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
'More investors now view the stock market as a valuable opportunity, though many still seek quick gains, leading to a rise in futures and options trading.'
Fundraising momentum is expected to accelerate further in the New Year, potentially surpassing 2024's record figures
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
'The problem is that the bubble may not only be in valuations, but also in investors' minds.'
IPOs worth Rs 50,000 crore including Hyundai, NTPC Green Energy and Swiggy are set to hit the market in late October or early November.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has rejigged his equity portfolios. In his Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, he has added Axis Bank (5 per cent weightage) and increased holding in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) by one percentage point. This, Wood said, will be paid for by removing the investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and reducing the investments in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) by one percentage point each.
Multi-asset allocation funds emerged as the most popular option for MFs as they provided the needed flexibility.
'In the short term you keep your return expectations very, very low; in the medium term be prepared to invest and in the long term growth will come and your returns from stocks will be high.'
'Somebody was using somebody to make statements that will stir the stock market and lead to a surge.' 'A sudden surge and a sudden crash is always an ideal situation for people to make illicit gains and then siphoning off the money.'
This period of strong growth not only offers opportunities but also calls for strategic considerations to ensure sustainable development and equitable prosperity in the years to come, suggests Sujan Hajra.
Stock markets are likely to remain range-bound in this holiday-shortened week amid a lack of any major domestic triggers, analysts said. Stock indices may also face volatility during the week amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Equity markets would remain closed on Monday for Christmas.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
The cash pile within smallcap mutual fund (MF) schemes has grown over the past few months amid a relentless rally in stocks in this space. While fund managers usually don't make cash calls, incessant inflows and valuation discomfort have forced their hand. At the end of January, the top 10 schemes had over Rs 12,160 crore in cash, compared to Rs 8,700 crore in August 2023.
rediffGURU Ulhas Joshi answers readers' mutual fund queries
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The fund has opened for subscription on May 3, 2007 and will close on May 31, 2007.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
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