India is set to become the world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, but slow income growth, lack of structural change, and rising inequality highlight the gap between progress and real transformation.
The 50 per cent US tariff on Indian goods pose a downside risk to growth but the impact is expected to be short-lived for the economy, and consumption demand could see an uptick after the new goods and service tax (GST) rates are implemented which could even offset the external uncertainty, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran reckoned on Friday.
The GST Council on Wednesday approved a two-tier rate structure of 5 and 18 per cent, which will be implemented from September 22.
France today increasingly resembles the Italy of the past, when governments fell with bewildering regularity, prime ministers came and went in rapid succession, and political instability became the norm rather than the exception, point out Krishnan Srinivasan and Manoj Mohanka.
'The US reciprocal tariff has added another element of uncertainty and the central bank may prefer to wait and get further clarity.'
'That is going to have an impact on literally every one, whether you buy a toothpaste, a safety pin, a car, shoes or medicines or you go to a diagnostic centre.'
The next generation GST reforms would 'absolutely' set an economy open and transparent with further reduction in compliance burden and benefiting small businesses, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday.
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
'What the US appears to be doing is to force India to be "the buyer of last resort", on whom their products can be dumped, 1.4 billion people have to eat something, so why not eat American corn?' 'What is exercising the Trump lot is the fact that most of the farms are in solidly Republican Midwestern states: Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin,' points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Among the Sensex firms, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, ITC and L&T were the major laggards. Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, BEL, Adani Ports, State Bank of India, Trent, HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
The deal fell through over unresolved disagreements over contentious issues, mainly on agriculture and automotive sector tariffs.
Any industrial policy is only as good as how it is applied and the other reforms that support it. This was as true 40 years ago as it is now, points out Debashis Basu.
Russia has a "special mechanism" to confront any challenge arising out of the US slapping punitive measures against India for its procurement of Russian crude oil, Russian charge d'affaires Roman Babushkin said on Wednesday.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
India needs Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council-like common platforms between states and the Centre in areas such as land clearances, power, and water to fast-track infrastructure projects to achieve double-digit growth going ahead, said Praveer Sinha, chief executive officer and managing director of The Tata Power Company.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
GST 2.0 may cushion consumers against US tariffs, but like the 2019 corporate tax cut, it risks being another tactical fix rather than a structural growth strategy, expects Debashis Basu.
In Professor Sulochana Gadgil's passing, India has lost a scientific giant, a fierce intellect, and a compassionate soul, remembers Dr Madhavan Nair Rajeevan.
'What India has done will surely embolden more countries to stand up to Trump.'
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Defence expenditure was pegged at 1.4 per cent of GDP in the Budget for 2025-26 but it may widen, depending on tensions between India and Pakistan.
'One Chinese interlocutor said India should realise that "China can do without India, but India could not do without China", pointing to its inability to do without Chinese intermediates and components,' former foreign secretary Shyam Saran discovers on a visit to China.
NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani on Monday said India is set to become the fourth largest economy in the world by the end of 2025, an assertion which came days after NITI CEO BVR Subrahmanyam claimed India has already overtaken Japan to reach that spot. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April had said that India is expected to be the fourth largest economy in the world with a GDP of $4.19 trillion in 2025, ahead of Japan.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday projected general government debt to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, down from 89.3 per cent in 2020-21. "General government interest payments to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, although this remains much higher than the median 8.7 per cent recorded by Baa-rated peers," Moody's Ratings associate managing director Gene Fang said in a post-Budget reaction.
President Droupadi Murmu addressed the nation on the eve of Independence Day, praising the response to terrorism, highlighting achievements in defense self-reliance, and emphasizing unity and progress.
The point to note for India is that we must not panic. The United States may be our largest export destination, but high tariffs will not exactly mean gloom and doom. Sure, we can throw some morsels as we continue negotiating, but we must be firm that some red lines cannot be crossed, no matter what, asserts Shreekant Sambrani.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in June, it had trimmed the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent.
This period of strong growth not only offers opportunities but also calls for strategic considerations to ensure sustainable development and equitable prosperity in the years to come, suggests Sujan Hajra.
The Indian services sector growth touched an 11 month high in July, supported by a pickup in new exports orders and sharp rise in overall sales, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 60.5 in July, little-changed from 60.4 in June, and the rate of expansion was the best seen since August 2024.
Siam argues that a 2040 ban could destabilise ongoing and future investments and threaten millions of jobs in the automotive value chain.
India's 18 largest states, accounting for over 90 per cent of the country's gross state domestic product (GSDP), are likely to record a marginal uptick in revenue growth to 7-9 per cent this year, from 6.6 per cent clocked in 2024-25 (FY25), rating agency Crisil said in a report on Tuesday. This growth, slower than the decadal average of about 10 per cent, would lift these states' cumulative revenue to around Rs 40 trillion in FY26 from Rs 37.26 trillion in FY25.
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
With general government debt now approaching three-quarters of GDP, and only incremental reform efforts visible, Pakistan risks prolonging its economic stagnation unless fundamental governance, regulatory, and industrial overhauls are undertaken.
Generative AI is transforming workplaces but at a cost -- there are fewer jobs for young workers just entering the workforce, reveals a Goldman Sachs report.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
Gold prices are expected to witness further consolidation in the coming week as investors brace for a slew of events, ranging from central bank meetings, including the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome, to global trade negotiations, analysts said.
President Droupadi Murmu's address to the nation on the eve of the 79th Independence Day.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
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