The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
GST, net of refunds, now yields close to 20 trillion to both the Centre's and states' exchequer.
The gig economy market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 per cent to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by the end of 2024, according to a white paper by The Forum for Progressive Gig Workers. Estimates suggest the gig economy has the potential to create 90 million jobs and add 1.25 per cent to India's GDP (gross domestic product) over time.
Among Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Asian Paints, NTPC, Infosys, Nestle, Sun Pharma, and Tata Steel were the major laggards. Eternal, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries and Bajaj Finserv were the gainers.
'We need to be very vigilant as we are passing through some fraught times.'
India's economic growth slowed to a 15-month low of 6.7 per cent in April-June 2024-25, mainly due to poor performance of the agriculture and services sectors, government data showed on Friday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2022-23. India, however, remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.7 per cent growth in April-June 2024.
Foreign investors continue to exhibit confidence in the country's equity market, injecting Rs 19,860 crore in May driven by favourable global economic indicators and strong domestic fundamentals. This positive momentum follows a net investment of Rs 4,223 crore in April, data with the depositories showed.
India's extreme poverty rate declined sharply to 5.3 per cent over a decade from 27.1 per cent in 2011-12 even as the World Bank revised upwards its threshold poverty line to $3 per day.
In an event-heavy week, stock investors will track quarterly earnings of several bluechip firms, the likely outcome of ongoing India-US trade talks, and inflation data for market cues, analysts said on Sunday. Moreover, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also guide movement in equities, they said.
Economists at the country's largest lender SBI on Wednesday said they see Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and if it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7 per cent. It can be noted that the April-June period saw the real GDP expanding by 6.7 per cent, the lowest in 15 quarters.
Office space owners are looking at good times ahead as rentals are expected to rise due to demand for Grade A office spaces outpacing supply that has been sluggish due to construction delays, long gestation periods and developers' interests shifting to residential.
Global home decor and furniture retailer IKEA has ambitions to increase sourcing from India to 50 per cent, Swedish trade minister Benjamin Dousa said on Wednesday. IKEA's sourcing basket includes textiles, plastics, and metals, among others, and the company plans to add more items.
Uddhav Thackeray criticized BJP MP Nishikant Dubey for his controversial remarks amid the Marathi-Hindi language row, accusing him of trying to divide people and disturb harmony.
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
According to data from BSE, the 4,357 companies available for trade had a combined mcap of around Rs 416 trillion on Tuesday against India's GDP at current prices of Rs 296.6 trillion in FY24.
The disbursement of the second tranche comes on a day when the International Monetary Fund is holding virtual discussions on Pakistan's upcoming budget, as the visit of its mission to Islamabad was delayed due to security concerns in the region.
The central government's fiscal deficit fell to 0.8 per cent of the full-year target at the end of May, mainly due to a whopping Rs 2.69 lakh crore dividend received from the Reserve Bank of India. The fiscal deficit, or gap between the government's expenditure and revenue, had touched 11.9 per cent of the Budget Estimates (BE) for 2025-26 or Rs 1.86 lakh crore in April.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
India has decided to submit a dossier at the upcoming Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meeting, calling for Pakistan to be placed back on the grey list of the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
The stock and bond markets told Trump firmly that any idea of isolating China would lead to harming the US economy and this forced Trump to backtrack, points out Aakar Patel.
The Indian services sector growth touched a ten-month high in June aided by robust expansion in international sales and job creation, amid positive demand trends and ongoing improvement in sales, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 58.8 in May to 60.4 in June, driven by sharp upturn in new business orders.
Foreign brokerages remain cautious on the road ahead for the Indian equity markets. Though analysts at Nomura have revised their March 2026 Nifty target to 26,140 levels from the earlier 24,970, but the upside from the current levels is a modest 6 per cent. BofA Securities, on the other hand, has not made any change to its year-end Nifty target.
'Investors who remain calm, consistent, and disciplined through short-term volatility are usually the ones who benefit most in the long run.'
Merchandise exports to the US jumped 23.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to $8.3 billion in June, even as India's overall outbound shipments witnessed contraction during the month, according to the data released by the commerce department on Tuesday. The increase in outbound shipments to the US was largely driven by the rush among exporters to utilise America's pause on its plans to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs.
The country's biggest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki India, has raised concerns about the continuing slide in small car sales.
The country's current account deficit widened marginally to $9.7 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in April-June 2024, as against $8.9 billion or 1 per cent in the year-ago period, Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. The crucial number representing the country's external sector strength has come on the heels of a surplus of $4.6 billion or 0.5 per cent of GDP recorded in the preceding January-March quarter. The Reserve Bank attributed the year-on-year widening in current account deficit to a rise in merchandise trade gap which was recorded at $65.1 billion in Q1 FY25 as compared to $56.7 billion in the year-ago period.
The domestic stock market will continue to monitor the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on global supplies besides prices of crude oil this week, analysts said. Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also drive investors' sentiment during the week.
Amazon will invest more than Rs 2,000 crore (about $233 million) in India in 2025 as it strengthens its logistics and safety standards, said the ecommerce company on Thursday.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
A year after the RG Kar rape-murder Swarupa Dutt/Rediff look at the city where it happened, Kolkata -- its study in dichotomy, at once the self-proclaimed cultural capital of India as also a petri dish for a peculiar rage that breeds crimes against women.
The BRICS nations condemned the Pahalgam terror attack, advocated for a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, and criticized rising tariffs during their summit in Rio de Janeiro. They also addressed global challenges and called for reforms in international institutions.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
Even if no statistical jugglery is afoot, only to warn that the 'noise' in the numbers should be eliminated in order to hear the underlying music, without distortion, warns T N Ninan.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
India's military expenditure in 2024 was nearly nine times that of Pakistan's, according to a study released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). India's spending reached USD 86.1 billion, while Pakistan spent USD 10.2 billion. China's military spending continued to rise, reaching USD 314 billion, accounting for 50% of all spending in Asia and Oceania.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India's GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a 'severe' escalation in global trade war. "It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation," Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
India's economy grew 7.8 per cent in the March quarter, pushing up the annual growth rate to 8.2 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. Growth in the January-March period was lower than the 8.6 per cent expansion in the December quarter.
Equity investors would track global market trends, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues this week, analysts said. Moreover, progress of monsoon and developments related to trade talks would also be monitored by investors, experts noted.
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