The government kept its nerve in the face of a massive shock. It chose not to resort to a massive fiscal stimulus. It focused instead on providing liquidity support and easing restrictions on movement in stages, observes T T Ram Mohan.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will likely encapsulate this thinking in his Budget speech, to be finalised by March 13.
Officials said there had been no official word or indication from the top yet. The expectation from officials is to do what they can, but it is understood that all fiscal and budgetary targets don't matter anymore.
'But can it afford to present a scenario within the existing legal framework of fiscal consolidation?', asks A K Bhattacharya.
'Because of the COVID-19 pandemic situation today, the revenues of the states have gone down, the GST money is not coming and all the states combined have lost more than Rs 365,000 crore in revenue.' 'To make it worse, the Government of India is not compensating us for the shortfall, which it must as per its Constitutional obligations.'
'India is nowhere near the peak of the infection given its large population of 1.3 billion'
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
Even with the possible expenditure roll-overs and off-budget financing, the fiscal deficit target will not be met. The FRBM Act, after its amendment in 2018, allows a fiscal deficit slippage of not more than 0.5 per cent for any given year, provided there are justifications. These justifications include war, national security, severe collapse in the agriculture sector, a major natural calamity, big structural economic reforms, or the decline in real output growth of a quarter by at least 3 percentage points below its average of the previous four quarters.
This is a moment when the leaders at the Centre and states must show true leadership for the sake of the country. And it is the top political leaders, not attorney generals or bureaucrats, who should be sitting together and settling this thorny issue of compensation, says Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India.
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath also said the pickup in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran, and Turkey and for under-performing emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India, and Mexico.
Among other things, the agenda is likely to focus on increasing private investment, employment generation and giving relief to the farm sector
He did not believe in any fiscal puritanism. In 2012, when it was almost certain that the government will breach the 2012-13 fiscal deficit target, he wrote that in abnormal times, abnormal measures are required to get back to normalcy.
States also demanded that Budget for 2015-16 should make adequate provisions for central sales tax compensation for early roll out of Goods and Services Tax, a Constitutional Amendment Bill for which was tabled in the Lok Sabha last week.
It is nearly impossible to effectively control inflation when it is not properly measured.
IThe fiscal deficit target for 2020-2021 was originally set at 3.5 per cent of GDP. But the government's revenues have collapsed and its expenditure burden will only increase over the Budget estimates.' With the government having already planned for an additional borrowing of over Rs 4 trillion, the fiscal deficit for the current year would be much higher than the Budget estimate, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
The government's Rs 20.97 lakh crore COVID-19 package lacks in addressing the immediate concerns of the economy as the actual fiscal impact of the additional stimulus is only about 1 per cent of the GDP as opposed to the claim of 10 per cent, Fitch Solutions said on Tuesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12 announced a stimulus package of Rs 20 lakh crore, or nearly 10 per cent of GDP, to deal with the economic fallout of COVID-19. The contents of the package were broad-based and announced in five tranches.
This permission was given some time late last month, before the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on March 31 issued the indicative borrowing calendar for the states for April-June and the one for the Centre for April-September.
The review will not only present data, trends but also list out the achievements of the Narendra Modi government
The government further said the gross tax revenue as a per cent of GDP is expected to increase to 12.1 per cent of GDP in 2019-20 and stabilise at that level in 2020-21 before climbing up to a level of 12.2 per cent of GDP.
The Finance Commission, which makes recommendations on sharing of tax revenues by the Centre and States, has suggested a new path for fiscal prudence in its report submitted to President Pratibha Patil on Wednesday.
'When you start distributing wealth, you end up distributing poverty.'
The Left parties which had raised the issue were not satisfied with his reply and walked out and they were joined by Samajwadi Party.
It would also be the last policy of Rajan
'At this time, staying in the game is more important.' 'If we do that, then wealth can be generated.'
'Once the lockdown is lifted, we will need the mother of all fiscal and monetary policy support to sustain the economy,' advises Akash Prakash.
'One way of doing this could be offering credit guarantee to the banks, say 10 per cent, for fresh loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises,' observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'No one cares about fiscal deficit now. Or for that matter, inflation.' 'The focus is on growth and growth alone.' 'RBI needs to break the risk aversion of banks and infuse adrenaline in their veins', says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The tax base should comprehensively extend over all goods and services up to the final consumer point.
'Most of the measures the finance minister announced will take effect after the lockdown.' 'By that time, millions of people will be starving.'
'... the government provides adequate cash and kind support for the poorest of the poor for survival... ...conditional cash and skilling support for the economically poor to raise their incomes to adequate levels... ...and make functional arrangements for providing unemployment allowance to the vulnerable poor during disasters like the present one.'
Credit rating agencies have been raising red flag over high debt to GDP ratio of India.
The Budget has to provide for capex on roads, railways, defence and other infrastructure sectors.
The states will be able to raise additional open market loans of about Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) in the current year, according to the 2009-10 Budget estimates presented on Monday. According to Budget estimates of 2009-10, the states' share of taxes and duties is expected to increase to Rs 1,64,361 crore (Rs 1,643.61 billion) against Rs 1,60,179 crore (Rs 1,601.79 billion) in 2008-09.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her second Budget a little more than a month from now. Like any other FM, Sitharaman will depend on her team of bureaucrats and advisors to frame and present the Budget.
'We are not able to manufacture even low-end products as cheaply as China.' 'We are not buying Chinese goods today out of any love for China.'
As the duration of the FRBM Act, enacted in 2003, has come to an end, the government would be required to replace it with another law on fiscal consolidation.
Expressing his satisfaction over the government's move to slash fiscal deficit target, Das said it will help improve investment by the private sector as crowding out impact will be less.
Fitch reaffirmed India's rating at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook saying the rating balances a still strong medium-term growth outlook compared with similar category peers and relative external resilience stemming from solid foreign-reserve buffers against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors, including governance indicators and GDP per capita.
RBI governor Das flags growth slowdown, deputy raises alarm on inflation
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