As the coronavirus pandemic is triggering fears of a global recession, foreign investors have started rowing back from the Indian capital markets by withdrawing a massive over Rs 1 lakh crore in March after remaining net buyers for six consecutive months. In order to contain the spread of coronavirus, lockdowns have become a norm the world over and have led the FPIs to adopt a cautious stance, market experts said.
'If the third wave of Covid infections is as bad as the second one, the market may get very polarised with a preference for blue-chips with low volatility.'
The one-year returns for equity-oriented mutual fund (MFs) schemes have largely mirrored the gains made in the secondary market. However, schemes that invest in infrastructure (infra), small-cap, and public sector undertaking (PSU) banks have emerged standout performers, with gains in excess of 100 per cent in some cases. Of the total 484 equity schemes, 353 have managed to beat the Sensex, reveals the data provided by Value Research. Around 20 have delivered returns in excess of 90 per cent and six schemes have given returns of over 100 per cent in the past one year. The S&P BSE Sensex Total Return Index (TRI) has given returns of 51 per cent in the last one year, ended October 29.
'In 2022, active management, long-short strategies, multi-asset strategies, and asset allocation strategies need to be considered to meet long-term investment goals.'
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
With a loan book of $268 billion, India's retail banking is now ahead of Russia, Malaysia and Mexico but behind China, Brazil and Thailand
After a strict lockdown impacting sales, India has returned to the growth path again, Anglo-Dutch FMCG major Unilever has said. The return of growth of India business, along with Brazil and continued recovery in China, helped the company's emerging markets clock a growth of 5.3 per cent in the September 2020 quarter.
A lot of gains have been driven by foreign portfolio investors. Lower interest rates globally have forced foreign investors to seek avenues for growth. They have been net buyers to the tune of Rs 2.5 trillion over the trailing 12 months, including May, reports Sachin P Mampatta.
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
'When I came here in 2002, I said you can grow at 8%.' 'And I was told that was crazy, and (now) here we are.'
We have our own problems for sure and they are not trivial, but for now, our economy is in not too bad a shape, our politics is as personality-driven and authoritarian as that of most countries in the world. We must make the best of what we have and not be excessively unhappy looking at the grass on the other side of the septic tank which may not be greener after all!, observes Shreekant Sambrani.
Since October, FPIs have sold over $26 billion worth of stocks, which is the largest selling ever seen in India, observes Akash Prakash.
'There will always be a challenge to maintain a fine balance to ensure that the growth keeps happening and inflation is contained.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net buyers to the tune of Rs 12,266 crore in the Indian market in the first five trading sessions of February, as positive sentiment post-Union Budget 2021 sparked a rally in investment.
The ongoing consolidation in equities would improve return prospects during the second half of 2021, an American brokerage said on Tuesday. Leading indicators relating to fundamentals including growth, stability, government policy and RBI policy, and corporate earnings are "generally positive" about equity returns, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. It can be noted that since the start of the second wave of COVID-19 infections, which also coincided with inflation worries in the US, there has been an uneasiness within investors. From its levels on March 10, the markets are down by nearly 3 per cent despite the late surge over the last two trading sessions.
The first phase of the programme will kick off with vaccinations in Hyderabad on Monday and in Visakhapatnam on Tuesday (May 18) at Apollo facilities.
The finding is part of a research report by Deutsche Bank
India's growth projection released by the latest World Economic Outlook remains unchanged from its previous WEO (World Economic Outlook) update of July this summer but is a three-percentage point in 2021 and 1.6 percentage point drop from its April projections. According to the latest WEO update, released ahead of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the world is expected to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022.
According to research firm Counterpoint, Apple was one of the fastest-growing brands in India during the December quarter. This was driven by multiple price cuts on its XR device, thanks to local manufacturing in India, it had said. It added that the rollout of new iPhones (11 series), aggressive pricing and a good channel strategy was helping Apple gain market share in India.
China's debt is dangerously high at close to three times its GDP, with the ratio having nearly doubled in recent years, observes T N Ninan.
The finance ministry said the sharp inflows last fiscal were due to the government's policy initiatives and economic recovery.
What worked for the markets was favourable global investor sentiment and encouraging flows into the emerging markets following stimulus measures taken by central banks.
Bharti Airtel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 3 per cent, followed by HUL, HDFC, ITC, IndusInd Bank, SBI, Sun Pharma, ONGC, Tech Mahindra, L&T and Asian Paints. On the other hand, Kotak Bank, Nestle India, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
'While growth will bounce back from the current sub-5 per cent, it will stay lower than the already inadequate long-term average of 6.6 per cent,' notes T N Ninan.
The report says, the emerging markets continue to have uneven performance but India recovers from decelerating growth. Narendra Modi government, it added, continues business-friendly growth reforms, the economy grows at 6 per cent and the market rises 20 per cent.
India needs foreign exchange buffer reserves to insulate itself from exchange rate volatility as we have "no friends" for swap lines and Japan was the only country that helped during the taper tantrum in 2013, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Tuesday. Participating in a virtual event organised by economic think tank NCAER, Rajan said during the taper tantrum in 2013, India asked for swap lines, and only country who helped was Japan. "We need this (foreign exchange) reserve buffer to insulate ourselves because we have no friends.
International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath tells Indivjal Dhasmana high-frequency indicators for the third quarter of 2021 indicate momentum in economic recovery in India.
Will 2022 be a year of contrasting narratives -- one filled with caution and the other with continued optimism?
The pandemic has led to the International Finance Corporation massively ramping up its impact investment in the country - its largest client nation globally - at $1.7 billion as of June, a 51 per cent rise over the past 12 months, the largest developmental lender into third world private sector said on Tuesday. This is nearly half of its investment in the whole of South Asia since the pandemic, which touched $3.8 billion as of June 2021, it said. "Our total commitment to India, which is our largest client country globally, at the end of June stood at $1.7 billion representing an increase of over 51 per cent from last year," IFC vice-president for Asia and the Pacific region Alfonso Garcia Mora said in a statement.
'Indian macro conditions have never been better, and many businesses will safely compound earnings over the next five years.'
RBI is expecting the rupee to stay close to Rs 75 to a dollar, as COVID-19 forces foreign funds to withdraw from emerging markets.
Indian rupee is likely to test 76-76.50 levels as a relatively strong greenback, boiling crude prices and COVID headwinds deepen the depreciation bias for the domestic currency, according to experts. One of the significantly-hit Asian currency in recent months amid uncertain economic times, rupee is expected to see a consolidation in the vicinity of the current level before being pulled towards the depreciation bias. While the equity market has been surging with occasional blips, the rupee has mostly been weak against the US dollar in recent months.
'In the overall global portfolio, India's weighting has come down in the past seven months.'
Covid-19, US yields, dollar to weigh on equity flows in the near term.
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
Analysts tracking Apple said the India results were glimpses of what the company could achieve in emerging markets with a right pricing strategy for its products and local manufacturing.
There are various estimates of India's debt to GDP ratio, but the consensus is that that it would be over 80 per cent at the end of the current fiscal year.
A rare bonhomie among three private telecom companies in raising tariffs coming on the back of a bailout package by the government may have helped the telecom sector avert a crisis but the challenges haven't ceased to exist as the industry faces a cash-guzzling task of rolling out 5G networks in the coming months. The sector that provides direct and indirect employment to millions is projected to see Rs 1.3 lakh crore to Rs 2.3 lakh crore of investments in the coming years in creating robust infrastructure and building telecom and network products that have been incentivised by the government through PLI and other initiatives. After years of cut-throat competition and the apex court ruling on payment of past statutory dues left some players in the lurch, billionaire Sunil Mittal's Bharti Airtel and struggling Vodafone Idea almost in tandem raised tariffs, taking the plunge they had long been talking about.
Dr Reddy's Laboratories on Friday soft-launched imported COVID-19 vaccine Sputnik V, with Deepak Sapra, a senior executive of the drug-maker, taking the first shot in Hyderabad.
As the central bank continues to increase forex reserves by running down the forward book which totalled $42 billion as of end-July, signalling its strong resolve to build a bigger reserve cushion to aid its expansionary, unorthodox monetary policy, the reserves are set to top the $655-billion-mark by March, according to a report. The forex kitty declined by $2.10 billion to $619.36 billion for the week to August 13 due to a fall in the core currency assets and gold, showed the latest RBI data. The reserves had risen to a lifetime high of $621.46 billion in the previous reporting week ending August 6.
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