'Good investment opportunities should not be missed.'
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
'You can put 25 per cent right now; put another 25 per cent when Nifty corrects another 500 points.' 'At 13,500 put another 25 per cent and at 13,000 one can get fully deployed.'
Shares of Adani Group companies were in focus during Monday's session, with four of the six listed stocks being locked in the upper circuit of 5 per cent, bouncing back up to 11 per cent from their respective intra-day lows on the BSE. Adani Green Energy (Rs 1,115.85), Adani Transmission (Rs 1,297.65), Adani Total Gas (Rs 1,321) and Adani Power (Rs 120.60) were locked in 5 per cent upper circuit on the BSE. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) and Adani Enterprises rallied over 7 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, in intra-day trade. In comparison, the Sensex rose 0.44 per cent to 52,574.46 on Monday. Last week, all Adani group stocks had come under pressure after a media report suggested that the National Securities Depository (NSDL) had frozen accounts of three foreign funds that own stake in four of Adani Group companies.
Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state -- but China views the self-ruled island as a breakaway province. Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
'Investors need to expect steady returns over the next one to two years with bouts of high volatility.'
'There will be a series of rate hikes, but the pace and quantum will depend on how the economy in the US and the rest of the world behave.'
'The markets seem apprehensive and that explains why the markets have been feeling slightly uncomfortable ahead of the Budget.' 'After the event, when all the concerns are resolved and clarity emerges, markets will decide what to do next.'
Undeterred by the stock market volatility, uncertainty due to the Ukraine-Russia war and high inflation, equity mutual funds continue to remain attractive choice for investors for the 15th straight month, registering a net inflow of Rs 18,529 crore in May on robust SIP numbers. This was higher than Rs 15,890 crore net inflow in April, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed on Thursday. Equity schemes have been witnessing net inflow since March 2021, highlighting the positive sentiment among investors.
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) remained net buyers in Indian markets in October so far, pumping in a net Rs 17,749 crore in the month as better than expected quarterly results, the opening of the economy, and resumption of business activities kept investors' interest intact. In equities, FPIs invested a net sum of Rs 15,642 crore and the debt segment saw an inflow of Rs 2,107 crore during October 1-23, the depositories data showed. The total net investment during the period under review stood at Rs 17,749 crore.
Laxman Narasimhan, a veteran in leading and advising global consumer-facing brands, has been named as the new CEO of coffee giant Starbucks, joining a growing cohort of Indian-origin business leaders at the helm of global corporations.
Moody's on Thursday raised India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2020 upwards to -8.9 per cent contraction from -9.6 per cent contraction forecast earlier. Similarly, India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2021 has been revised upwards to 8.6 per cent from 8.1 per cent projected earlier. The report released by Moody's Investors Service attributed the reason behind better growth to the falling of coronavirus cases in the country.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
The ruble has recouped most of its losses and become the top-performing currency globally. It continues to gain and is up 60 per cent against the US dollar from its lows in the first week of March. The ruble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on Tuesday against a record low of 139 on March 7.
'Our advice is to put money into equities now rather than staying away.'
Facing the twin task of fighting the coronavirus pandemic today and building a better tomorrow, the world is experiencing a new Bretton Woods moment, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In the early part of 1800, a 30-acre plot next to Fort Gloster on the banks of river Hooghly in Howrah district of Bengal was the nerve centre of industrial activity; it housed India's first steam-powered cotton mill, Bowreah Mills, which was set up by a British merchant and went on to become a hub of factories - a rum distillery, foundry, cotton yarn factory, an oil mill and a paper mill, et al. Spearheaded by Dwarkanath Tagore, the industrialist grandfather of Rabindranath Tagore, the commercial complex was possibly the first of its kind in the country. Close to 200 years later, after much ebb and flow of history, the hub is set for a resurgence of sorts.
UBS, Credit Suisse see emerging markets doing well next year, but expect India to underperform, given its rich valuations.
Foreign investors have pulled over Rs 6,400 crore from the Indian equity market in the first four trading sessions of the ongoing month when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices, inflation, tight monetary policy among others, FPIs' flows in India are expected to remain volatile in the near term, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive amount of over Rs 1.65 lakh crore from equities. This was largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and due to the deteriorating geopolitical environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Stock markets will focus on global trends for further direction in this holiday-shortened week as the earnings season is largely over, analysts said. Trade experts expect the key benchmark indices to move sideways as investors are trying to decode the impact of rising inflation on foreign portfolio investments. Inflation data released by the US and China last week have fanned fears of earlier than expected rate hike and boosted US bond yields.
Rs 1,000 now buys $13.5 against $14 a year ago.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
Domestic investors have been increasingly investing in overseas stocks in a bid to diversify their portfolio. US stocks are the favourite for individual investors, though they have been increasingly looking at Chinese equities given the relatively attractive valuations. However, the regulatory crackdown in China and the latest concerns around Evergrande default have resulted in sub-par returns for investors. Edelweiss Greater China Equity Off-shore Fund and Axis Greater China Equity Fund of Fund are down 11 per cent in the past three months, the data from Value Research shows.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
Domestic equity markets are in elite company. In May, Indian markets joined select developed markets (DMs) such as the US, UK and Germany to record new all-time highs. Among emerging markets (EMs), Brazil is the other market to have logged new highs this month. Asian peers such as South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand are currently between 2 per cent and 10 per cent below their previous highs made earlier this year. The domestic markets were among the worst-performing major global markets in April amid a lethal second-wave of covid-19 infections.
'Valuations are very attractive, and most companies are cash-rich with strong dividend yields.'
HCL Tech was the top loser in the Sensex pack, skidding over 4 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra Dr Reddy's, Wipro, TCS, Titan and Infosys. NSE Nifty plunged 167.80 points to 17,110.15.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
'At current valuations, we believe large-caps offer better downside support.' 'Hence, we are suggesting a small tilt towards them.'
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
India's budget for the fiscal beginning April focuses on giving a boost to the ongoing economic recovery through a sharp increase in capex spending but is short on major growth-enhancing structural reform announcements, Fitch Ratings said Wednesday. The deficit targets present in the Union budget 2022-23 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday "are a bit higher than our forecasts when we affirmed India's 'BBB'/Negative sovereign rating in November," said Jeremy Zook, director and primary sovereign analyst for India, Fitch Ratings. While it was widely expected that the fiscal deficit will be lower than the targeted 6.8 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, Sitharaman put the number at 6.9 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 16,459 crore in Indian markets in August, with majority of investment coming in the debt segment. In equities, they invested just Rs 2,082.94 crore while debt segment saw inflow of Rs 14,376.2 crore between August 2-31, depositories data showed. The quantum of investment in the debt segment is highest in this calender year so far.
In the state of the economy report, the RBI said bond vigilantes could undermine the recovery, unsettle financial markets, and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets.
IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 3 per cent, followed by Dr Reddy's, NTPC, Maruti, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel and HDFC. NSE Nifty declined 76.15 points to 15,691.40.
The venture, they said, would focus on technology and media opportunities in emerging markets. Industry sources said the focus would be on digital media, with India being the big driver.
If the central banks act harshly now, the markets will crash and then rally. If they are hesitant, the pain will be prolonged, predicts Debashis Basu.
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
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