The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pumped in a net sum of Rs 49,553 crore in Indian markets this month so far on back of high liquidity coupled with improving global indicators and clarity after the US presidential elections. FPIs invested Rs 44,378 crore in equities and Rs 5,175 crore in the debt segment, taking the total net investment to Rs 49,553 crore between November 3-20. In October, FPIs invested a net sum of Rs 22,033 crore.
Reinvent and innovate will be the key mantra for the Indian pharma industry in the New Year as the 'pharmacy of the world' looks to move from volume to value leadership, amid emerging challenges of inflation and pricing pressures in the global markets. While R&D investment, market competitiveness, regulatory scrutiny, and domestic price regulations are expected to shape the growth of generics and injectable products, concerns such as price control and customs duties on medical equipment will continue to bother the healthcare industry in 2023. The industry believes that in view of India's G20 Presidency, digital health innovation, achieving universal health coverage, improving healthcare infrastructure and delivery will continue to be the key driving factors in 2023.
'The idea is to invest where there is opportunity.'
The rupee slipped by 4 paise to close at 77.59 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.56 against the greenback, and finally settled at 77.59, down 4 paise over its previous close. During the trading session, the rupee touched an intra-day low of 77.67 and a high of 77.51.
72 per cent of the revenue of Indian firms (India Inc) is derived from the domestic / home market - the sixth highest in percentage terms in the emerging market (EM) and the Asian region, said a recent report by Morgan Stanley. The balance, according to the report titled 'Global Exposure Guide 2021' co-authored by analysts led by Jonathan F Garner, their chief Asia and emerging market strategist, is split between the developed markets (DMs) and other EMs. The report is based on an analysis of 3,300 companies globally that have revenue exposure in 17 different regions.
It's the first time in my memory that I have seen a negative expected return for equities, notes Akash Prakash. Hopefully, this implies the consensus is being too negative, and markets, as usual, will surprise everyone and deliver the least likely outcome.
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
'When the gold price rises rapidly, India's physical gold market remains on standby.'
The government is expected to defer the mega initial public offering (IPO) of LIC to the next financial year as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has dampened fund managers' interest in the public issue, market experts said on Sunday. The government was looking to sell 5 per cent stake in Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) this month, which could have fetched over Rs 60,000 crore to the exchequer. The IPO would have helped meet the curtailed divestment target of Rs 78,000 crore this fiscal.
Over longer periods of three, five and 10 years, small-cap funds have rewarded their investors handsomely.
Retail giant Walmart on Thursday said it is inviting select Indian sellers to join Walmart marketplace, a curated sellers community that serves more than 120 million US shoppers each month. India is already one of the top sourcing markets for Walmart and the retail major has set an ambitious goal of exporting $10 billion from India each year by 2027. "This initiative expands on over 20 years of Walmart's engagement with Indian exporters," said a statement from Walmart. Walmart is seeking new sellers from India as part of a global drive to attract international sellers and expand the marketplace's product assortment.
Stock markets will be guided by global factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the COVID-19 situation in China and crude oil prices in absence of major domestic events this week, analysts said. Stock markets are expected to keep their winning momentum this week as FIIs may come back aggressively fuelling a further rally in the market, they added. "In absence of any major event, global cues viz the Russia-Ukraine war, the COVID situation in China and movement of crude will remain in focus. "Besides, participants will be also be eyeing FIIs flow for cues," said Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking.
Apple's newest phone iPhone 14 will be made in India as the global tech titan bets big on the manufacturing prowess of the world's second-biggest smartphone market after China.
From the peak of $3.67 trillion in January, India's market cap has eroded by $676 billion amid rising bond yields and a record-breaking sell-off by overseas investors.
If you are a budding developer and interested in Web3, chances are that you will be headed to one of India's largest-ever meetings of Web3 developers, being held by Polygon, a Web3 platform. The company's ongoing "Web3: Made in India Tour" is expected to see close to 4,000 developers coming together at the inaugural Polygon Connect event in Bengaluru on December 1. The event highlights the growing dominance of Web3 developers from India, as well as the sector's rising interest to investors, who continue to invest in startups despite a funds crunch.
'We have relatively strong growth and a healthy corporate earnings cycle as positives, but a worrisome current account deficit and high inflation as challenges.'
'2022 has not been -- and will not be -- the kind of 2021 bull market, which lifted all boats.'
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said inflation management cannot be "singularly" left to the monetary policy as a majority of activities are outside its purview in the current context. Speaking at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier, the finance minister said that both the fiscal policy and the monetary policy have to work together to contain inflation. Consumer price index (CPI) based inflation or retail inflation is ruling above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent since January.
Given the impact Covid-19 pandemic had over the world economy, analysts expect global central banks, especially the US Fed, to keep the liquidity tap open, which, in turn, is likely to keep the equity markets, especially those in the emerging markets, buoyant.
Equity markets would watch out for global cues in absence of any major event on the domestic front, and indices may face volatility in view of the scheduled derivatives expiry this week, analysts said. "During the week, volatility is likely to remain high due to the scheduled derivatives expiry of November month contracts on November 25. "At the same time, the focus would largely remain on the global markets for cues, in absence of any major event on the domestic front," said Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking.
Equities in India saw record FPI inflows of $16.8 billion in November and December, taking the benchmark indices to new highs.
After stepping down from the board with effect from September 30, he will remain as Chairman Emeritus of the FMCG firm, according to a statement issued on Wednesday. The 79-year-old industrialist passed on the baton of GCPL to his younger daughter Nisaba Godrej in 2017 after leading the company for 17 years.
'Higher than expected inflation in the US or the European Union, faster than expected tightening by the major central banks, break out of a war in Europe, and withdrawal of portfolio equities from the emerging markets are factors which can result in equity market corrections.'
She also took a swipe at the Bharatiya Janata Party over its defeat in the just-concluded Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, saying the ruling party's president could not hold on to his home state. "Who is the Pappu now?" she asked.
With the international markets facing uncertainty after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western nations retaliated with sanctions, Indian companies are putting their international fundraising plans on hold as they wait for the markets to recover. Bankers said apart from the geopolitical crisis, international rates are hardening in anticipation of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve to control rising prices in the US. The Ukraine situation has implications for the market. In such a situation, international investors try to shift to safe haven assets by exiting from emerging markets.
Market benchmarks gave up intra-day gains to close in the red for the sixth session on the trot on Friday, capping a bruising week which saw a massive dash for safety amid rate hikes by global central banks and fears of slowing growth.
Already retail inflation has risen to 6.07 per cent in February, crossing the upper band of the Parliamentary mandate. This is the second consecutive month in 2022 when retail inflation has crossed the 6 per cent mark having hit 6.01 per cent in January.
'Hope they don't tinker around with capital gains tax in any way.'
A majority of the Indian consumers are bullish about their financial situation in the next one year, but have raised concerns over rising cost of goods and services, which is affecting their purchasing decisions, according to an EY report. Moreover, uncertainty around managing rising living costs is driving over 80 per cent in India to save more money, said the findings of the ninth edition of the EY Future Consumer Index for India. The Index for India reaffirms the "positive outlook" of the Indian consumers as 77 per cent expect positive changes in the financial situation, in the next one year.
Continuing their selling spree for the sixth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 41,000 crore from the Indian equity market in March on anticipation of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and deteriorating geopolitical environment amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Further, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are expected to remain volatile in the near term given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices and inflation, experts said. According to data available with the depositories, FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 41,123 crore in the equity market last month.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
The speed at which he led the central bank in different areas -- ranging from internal reorganisation to inflation fighting, stabilising the currency, taking on rogue corporations, cleaning up bank balance sheets, and opening the sector -- makes one believe that Rajan knew he had only three years to do his job. A fascinating excerpt from Tamal Bandyopadhyay's MUST-READ Roller Coaster: An Affair with Banking.
India needs a second green revolution along with the next generation of reforms with a view to make agriculture more climate-resistant and environmentally sustainable, said an RBI article on farm sector challenges. Observing that Indian agriculture has exhibited remarkable resilience during the COVID-19 period, the article said "new emerging challenges warrant a second green revolution along with next-generation reforms". Despite the success in terms of production that has ensured food security in the country, food inflation and its volatility remain a challenge, which requires supply-side interventions such as higher public investment, storage infrastructure and promotion of food processing, said the article titled 'Indian Agriculture: Achievements and Challenges'.
'If you are invested in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, even if you are making losses right now, it is better to sell them now and sit on cash.'
'Good investment opportunities should not be missed.'
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
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