A depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
Rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September, the IMD said.
The exercise, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said, will help ease any possible impact of sub-par rainfall on farmers.
Steady progress in June; north and central regions to get good pre-showers
With conditions not favouring its progress, southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast by June 4, three days after its normal onset date, the MET department has said.
Sowing had started on a sluggish note in several parts of the country because of delay in the onset of the monsoon but has picked up pace subsequently as the rains progressed and performed appreciably well in August.
There seems to be no respite from floods in Assam, as the Brahmaputra and its a few tributaries are maintaining a rising trend affecting over 1 lakh people in seven districts of the state.
The rains have so far been four per cent below normal.
Rain deficiency in eastern and western Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya is 20-46 per cent less than normal as of June 17.
The India Meteorological Department's first monsoon forecast for this year would have gladdened many a heart with the hope of plentiful rain, after two drought years.
IMD will present its month-wise and region-wise forecast in June.
In many parts of central and north India, monsoon reaches only in July.
This could have huge implications for agriculture, food prices, supply and overall economic growth of the country
For the second successive year, Monsoon is likely to be below normal with parts of north-west and central India to be the most affected.
Till Thursday, the country had received 41 per cent less June rainfall than normal - the scantiest in a decade and one of the rarest occasions when the shortfall in the month was more than 30 per cent - private weather forecaster Skymet said in its daily weather forecast on Friday.
Though the summer is expected to be hotter, global and domestic forecasts point to good rains.
Drought fears will subside if the momentum generated is maintained in August.
Scientists at the India Meteorological Department warn that not only has India turned hotter in the last two decades, but that heat waves are projected to become more intense, have longer durations and greater frequency, thereby resulting in more deaths.
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