This is the second-worst performance by the pack during this period over the last five years since CY20.
Gold prices are struggling and are down 18 per cent from their March highs. But stock prices have fallen even more. As a result, the precious metal has begun to outperform equities - both in the domestic market and international markets. Gold prices are up 2.6 per cent in the domestic market in the current calendar year (CY22) so far, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), compared to a 1.7 per cent decline in the Sensex year-to-date (YTD).
LIC's $2.7-billion initial public offering (IPO) shall be the fifth-biggest globally in CY22. South Korean EV battery maker LG Energy Solution holds the record for the year's largest IPO at $10.8 billion, while Chinese mobile communications provider China Mobile IPO, which raised $8.6 billion, comes second. Dubai Electricity and Water Authority's (DEWA's) $6.1-billion IPO in March is currently the third biggest public offering for the year, followed by China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC's) IPO; the firm had raised $5.1 billion by issuing shares in Mainland China after delisting from the American bourses.
India's traditional PC market, inclusive of desktops, notebooks, and workstations declined by 11.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q3CY22 (Jul-Sep) after 8 consecutive quarters of growth despite strong shipments of 3.9 million units, according to new data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. All segments declined except the government, which grew by 91.5 per cent YoY on the back of government orders, leading to strong growth in the third consecutive quarter. While the desktop and workstation categories grew by 23.4 per cent and 17.6 per cent YoY respectively, the notebook category declined by 19.5 per cent YoY.
India's share of total global venture capital (VC) funding fell to 2.9 per cent in calendar year 2023 (CY23) - the lowest since CY19 - reaching $7.3 billion as most startups struggled to raise money without compromising on their earlier valuations. Based on global data by CB Insights on VC funding, funding to Indian startups fell by nearly a third compared to CY22 when it hit $20.6 billion and accounted for 4.8 per cent of the global figure. While the data shows that the world had 71 new unicorns (21 in Asia), India contributed only two of them, as compared with CY22 when it had 22.
Mobile wallet adoption is surging in India and swiftly becoming a primary payment option, surpassing traditional methods like cash and cards. Over the next few years, payments via mobile wallets in India are likely to surpass the Rs 531.8 trillion mark in 2028, witnessing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3 per cent between 2024 and 2028, according to GlobalData - a London-based leading data and analytics company. The value of mobile wallet payments in India, as per a GlobalData report, grew at a CAGR of 72.1 per cent between 2019 and 2023 to reach Rs 202.8 trillion ($2.5 trillion) in 2023.
Counterpoint Research estimates that Xiaomi will end CY23 with a volume market share in CY23 to 15 per cent, pushing the Chinese company, which has faced numerous challenges and scrutiny from investigative agencies, to the third place.
India's venture capital (VC) landscape saw a strategic shift during the first half (H1) of the calendar year (CY) 2024, with a notable increase in larger-sized investments. This was evident from a 45.3 per cent rise in disclosed funding value year-on-year, despite a 2.1 per cent drop in deal volume, according to GlobalData, a data analytics and consulting company.
'Developers are into profit-making. And there's not too much money in the affordable segment.' 'So, they don't do affordable housing.'
India overtook China to add the most number of new unicorns--start-ups valued at $1 billion or more--in the first half of 2022 despite a funding winter haunting entrepreneurs in the south Asian nation. India added 14 new unicorns in the period (H1 2022) and China had 11, according to the Hurun Global Unicorn Index 2022. The US led the ranking by adding 138 start-ups in the unicorn club.
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
The move to demerge the hotel business into a separate entity by ITC has brought back focus on hotel stocks, which have already seen a good run thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). Analysts believe there could be more gains in store over the next one year for the stocks in this sector, but suggest investors put in money on a correction only from a long-term perspective. Hotel stocks, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, have seen a good run as travel picked up post Covid in India. Not only have the room rents increased, the occupancy, too, has surged.
Tata Group remained India's largest business conglomerate in market capitalisation in calendar year 2023 while the Mukesh Ambani camp raced ahead of the Adani businesses to become the second-largest. The Tata companies ended 2023 with a combined group market capitalisation of Rs 28.68 trillion, up 35 per cent from the Rs 21.2 trillion at the end of December 2022. Ambani's group mcap is Rs 19.42 trillion at the end of CY23, up 10.7 per cent from the Rs 17.6 trillion a year ago.
The seven major cities are Delhi-NCR, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Pune, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, and Kolkata.
Private credit is fast emerging as a major source of finance for projects in India as several entrepreneurs are looking for short-term debt to bridge the funding gap due to difference in pricing for equity dilution, top officials at PwC India said. They said while new private equity (PE) investments during the past two years have declined, several public market exits by PEs were observed during that period. Several companies are likely to approach capital markets in the near future to provide liquidity to PE fund investors.
After a sharp outperformance in the mid-and small-cap segments in the first half of calendar year 2023 (H1-CY23), analysts are now turning cautious on these two market segments and suggest investors stay selective and look for valuation comfort and earnings visibility before investing. The S&P BSE Midcap index has surged 13.7 per cent in H1-CY23, and the S&P BSE Small-cap index gained 12.7 per cent during this period, data shows. The S&P BSE Sensex, in comparison, has moved up 6.4 per cent.
India's first-ever listed new-age company, Zomato, has seen a meteoric rise in its stock price in calendar year 2023 (CY23), rising 70.75 per cent during this period as compared to 9.5 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. From being the second worst hit new-age stock in CY22, crashing 57 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the stock hit the Rs 100-mark for the first time since January 2022 in late August. The stellar run in the stock - only after PB Fintech and One97 Communications-owned Paytm, analysts say, may be coming to an end, at least for now.
Actively managed mutual fund (MF) schemes had been at the receiving end over the past few years for their inability to beat their benchmarks. However, the slump in shares of Adani Group companies - two of which are part of the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 index - have helped them improve their performance vis--vis exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or index funds.
India's defence sector presents an ordering opportunity worth $138 billion between fiscal years 2023-24 (FY24) and FY32, said a latest note by Nomura, which has initiated coverage on two defence-related players - Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) - with a 'buy' rating. The research and broking house sees an upside potential of 28 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively in these two stocks from the current levels.
Funding for Indian startups dropped by 33 per cent to $24 billion in 2022 as compared to the previous year though it was nearly double the amount recorded in 2019 or 2020, said a PwC India report on Wednesday. Global investors were still positive about the Indian startup ecosystem despite the global slowdown, as per the report titled 'Startup Tracker-CY 22'. "Funding for Indian startups in CY22 was nearly $24 billion, a drop of 33 per cent in comparison to CY21 but was still more than twice the funds raised in CY20 and CY19 each", it said.
Two sectors, fintech and media & entertainment, attracted 45 per cent of total funding by value, led by large ticket deals such as CRED and Dailyhunt.
ITC has been one of the best performing large-cap stock at the bourses thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), rallying nearly 52 per cent during this period and outperforming the sector benchmark - the S&P BSE FMCG index - by a wide margin that moved up around 17 per cent during this period. However, the counter has lost over 5 per cent from its recent high of Rs 346.25 hit on September 23, 2022 and has underperformed the S&P BSE Sensex, which has lost nearly 2 per cent since then. So, is the rally in the stock coming to an end, and is this a good time to book profit?
Clock 11% growth in the first 11 months of 2022.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
Auto Expo 2023 may not trigger a fresh rally in automobile stocks, say analysts, as this year's edition lacks participation from major listed players. It is also owing to the focus on electric vehicles (EVs), a segment where four-wheelers have minuscule market share. "In the passenger vehicles (PV) segment, Maruti Suzuki India and Tata Motors are the only listed players.
Equity valuations are once again on the rise, after they cooled down in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. The BSE Sensex trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has risen to a 17-month high of nearly 25x, from 23.7x at the end of December 2022 and 21.6x at the end of June 2022. Similarly, the index closed on Friday with a trailing price-to-book (P/B) value ratio of 3.6x, up from 3.4x at the end of December 2022; it is the highest since December 2021.
'The Fed rate will peak in the range of 5.1-5.3 per cent during the second quarter of CY23 and will most likely stay there for a while before rate cuts start in CY24.'
After disappointing guidances in the first quarter (Apr-Jun) of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) and valuation downgrades, the Indian IT sector could see some positive repricing as the bad news for IT maybe easing in Q2FY24. A key negative factor was weaker demand from the US financial sector and from North America in general. The latest GDP (gross domestic product) estimates and sector-specific news suggest that the demand situation may not be quite so bad with a gradual recovery in tech spending in Q2.
Manufacturing companies have been outperformers on the bourses in the current year, leading to a rise in their weighting in the benchmark index. Companies in sectors such as FMCG, automobile, pharmaceuticals, metals, cement, and agrochemicals now account for 25.43 per cent of the Nifty 50 index, up 88 basis points from 24.55 per cent at the end of December last year and a record low of 23.1 per cent at the end of CY20. The manufacturing sector is now dominated by FMCG majors such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Asian Paints, Nestle, and Britannia, accounting for 45 per cent of the combined market cap of all manufacturing companies in the index.
More companies are harbouring aspirations to go public, following a sharp market rebound after June's nadir. In August, seven companies expecting to raise a cumulative Rs 10,425 crore filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). The amount they are looking to mop up is the highest since March, when 13 companies filed their DRHPs to raise a combined Rs 19,494 crore, reveals data provided by PRIME Database - a source of comprehensive information on all capital market offerings.
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India may remain tepid in 2022, said a recent note by Goldman Sachs, who now peg the foreign portfolio investment into India at $5 billion in 2022, down from their earlier forecast of $30 billion with risks skewed to the downside. "There has been $15 billion of equity outflows YTD in India already, and the IPO of the largest insurance company has been pushed out. "Additionally, with no mention of India's inclusion in global bond indices in the Union Budget, there are risks to our already conservative base case assumption of an announcement of India's likely inclusion into the GBI-EM Global Diversified Bond Index in Q4-2022," wrote Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist in a co-authored report with Santanu Sengupta and Suraj Kumar.
The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
Actively-managed large-cap mutual fund (MF) schemes have managed to regain some lost sheen this year after faring poorly in the 2022 calendar year (CY22). At the end of the first six months (H1) of CY23, 78 per cent of the active large-cap schemes were ahead of the Nifty50 index funds as against just 26 per cent in 2022. When compared to the Sensex index funds, 61 per cent active funds have delivered better returns, shows an analysis of Value Research data.
The drying up of funds for a number of start-ups is affecting the firms' unicorn status across the globe. The past six months have seen the valuations of 147 unicorns drop, of which 71 were from the US and 29 from China, according to the latest Hurun Global Unicorn Index 2022. Eighty-one unicorns from across the globe saw their valuations drop below $1 billion-the threshold for a start-up to be labelled unicorn-from last year.
Japanese tech investor SoftBank may end up investing around $1 billion in India in 2022, nearly a third of what it did last year, according to people closely tracking its plans. Last year, SoftBank undertook investments of $3.2 billion in 12 deals. In the first five months of CY22, the giant investor has invested $400-500 million in five deals.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
After a recent fall in profit, Masayoshi Son of SoftBank announced that the Japanese tech investor will look at dramatic cost-cutting. Before he does that, investments in India for calendar year 2022 (CY22) will fall radically, observed sources in the know. Last year, the company had invested around $3.2-3.5 billion in the Indian start-up ecosystem - almost 10 per cent of the total investment the sector received. For CY22, the investments may not even touch $1 billion.
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