Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
Nikkei 225 index hit the 40,000 mark for the first time ever on Monday, continuing its bull-run that saw the index reclaim its 1989 peak of 34,000 levels in February. as global investors latched on to Japan's biggest companies on improving shareholder returns, the weaker yen and booming corporate profits. Analysts remain bullish on Japan, mostly aided by gains in technology shares. Adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a note by Morgan Stanley, is likely to benefit Japanese companies, which is almost at par with the US-based companies.
'This resilience should be viewed as reflecting the strength of the structural story.'
Index compiler FTSE said on Wednesday it planned to raise the weighting of India to 2.9 per cent from 2.3 per cent in its All-World Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index as well as making a number of other changes.
With the US housing and labour markets on the mend, the healing looks more durable, say RBS's Sanjay Mathur and Louis Kuijs.
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According to global deal tracking firm Dealogic, the deal value in the January to June period this year was the lowest first six months deal value recorded since 2009, when $1.09 trillion worth of transactions were announced.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
Foreign investors highlight growing risk to the India story.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
In 2004, India's IT spending is expected to grow 19.5 per cent, while that of China is forecast to expand 16.9 per cent, IDC said.\n\n\n\n
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
72 per cent of the revenue of Indian firms (India Inc) is derived from the domestic / home market - the sixth highest in percentage terms in the emerging market (EM) and the Asian region, said a recent report by Morgan Stanley. The balance, according to the report titled 'Global Exposure Guide 2021' co-authored by analysts led by Jonathan F Garner, their chief Asia and emerging market strategist, is split between the developed markets (DMs) and other EMs. The report is based on an analysis of 3,300 companies globally that have revenue exposure in 17 different regions.
Asia's falling stocks have triggered an exodus of funds from the region.
Such businesses outperform non-family firms by 3% in first six months of CY20, says Credit Suisse report.
Goldman Sachs forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate to 7.9 per cent in FY17 from a projected 7.5 per cent in FY16.
As regards India, market valuations already reflect most positives.
An expectation of tax sops in Budget, weakness of dollar and robust tax collection are adding positive sentiment
FIIs have offloaded stocks worth Rs 13,110 crore
The implications aren't too significant, given the size of Ukraine and its role in the global economy.
China's economy is in transition, with rising wage costs and massive overcapacity.
Despite the rally, on the basis of valuations, Indian markets aren't too expensive, says Christopher Wood, managing director and equity strategist at CLSA.
Sanjay Mathur, managing director and head of economics research for Asia Pacific (ex-Japan), Royal Bank of Scotland, tells Business Standard that in the emerging market pack, India needs to learn lessons from Korea and Taiwan, which have managed their economic situations well.
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