Investor sentiment across Asian markets has shifted sharply in August, reveals the latest Bank of America (BofA) Fund Manager Survey, which found global growth expectations retreating after three months of improvement.
While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
'Geopolitics will be the most important driver of financial markets in 2025.'
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has rejigged his equity portfolios. In his Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, he has added Axis Bank (5 per cent weightage) and increased holding in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) by one percentage point. This, Wood said, will be paid for by removing the investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and reducing the investments in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) by one percentage point each.
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
Global financial markets are not yet fully factoring in any escalation in the Israel-Palestine geopolitical conflict, said Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest weekly note to investors, GREED & fear. The pertinent point about ongoing events in West Asia from a financial market perspective, according to him, is that, despite much talk about a pending ground invasion of Gaza, no such invasion has yet happened. "This is beginning to make GREED & fear wonder if it is ever going to happen.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
'This resilience should be viewed as reflecting the strength of the structural story.'
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
'Like all long-term bull markets, the Indian stock market will continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry.'
However, in the last few sessions, the stock of Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), hit its 52-week low level of Rs 2269.75, and has been one of the worst performers among the Sensex pack thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Thus far in CY23, RIL has tanked nearly 11 per cent as compared to a fall of around 5 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. The fall in the stock, according to Gaurang Shah, senior vice-president at Geojit Financial Services is mostly due to the overall dip in the market sentiment, which in turn has impacted large-caps, including RIL.
Reliance Industries Ltd, the nation's most valuable company, on Thursday said it has raised $4 billion (around Rs 30,000 crore) in debt through the largest ever foreign currency bond issuance by an Indian entity. The oil-to-telecom conglomerate plans to use the proceeds of the three tranche issues to retire existing borrowings. The issue was "nearly 3 times oversubscribed with a peak order book aggregating around $11.5 billion," the company said in a statement. This is the largest ever foreign currency bond transaction in India, eclipsing ONGC Videsh Ltd's $2.2 billion US dollar bonds issue of 2014.
Assets under management of India-dedicated funds have slid 20 per cent in the year to November to $35.2 billion.
French investment bank BNP Paribas said India's earnings growth potential is around 14-15 per cent
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies reiterate his bullish view on Indian equities on the back of a steady fall in Covid cases coupled with a sharp economic recovery in India, reports Puneet Wadhwa.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
The bank says valuations are still high, foreign mutual funds are still 'very overweight' on Indian shares.
Most sought-after market of the past few years doesn't feature among top bets in Asia, emerging markets
Craig Chan, executive director and head of forex strategy & fixed income division (Asia-ex Japan), Nomura Singapore, in an interview with Business Standard's Rajesh Bhayani, shares his outlook on the dollar.
Richard Illey, chief economist, (Asia, ex-Japan) at BNP Paribas, talks to Business Standard on inflation and related issues ahead of the Reserve Bank's annual review of monetary policy.
Wipro and HCL Technologies among its top picks.
Portfolio churn by foreign institutional investors suggests their confidence in industrial revival.
Moody's Investors Service has said that although there is only a moderate direct impact of an expected European recession for most Asian (ex-Japan) corporate issuers of debt, indirect risks are rising on account of weak exports.
Input shortages and low inventories, according to Nomura, will likely lead to production cuts and delayed shipments in the September 2021 quarter.
Global investors have poured in over $794 million in Asia-dedicated equity funds in the first week of April as India-focussed funds broke their 11-week outflow streak.
Investors across the world put in about $60.4 million in India country funds during the first week of April, while China funds attracted the largest in the region of over $377 million, as per to data complied by international fund tracking firm EPFR Global. "Asia ex-Japan Equity Funds enjoyed their best week of the year in early April, absorbing a net $599 million, as investors found some value in China and continued to commit fresh money to Taiwan.
RIL said it has priced its 144A/Reg S bonds to yield 240 basis points over US Treasuries Note at a 4.125 per cent coupon.
Very gradual fiscal consolidation glide path with looser-than-expected fiscal policy; good quality spending mix and reasonable assumption on fiscal math; and focus on privatisation, asset monetisation and long-term funding for infrastructure investments, according to Morgan Stanley, are the three key themes from the Budget 2021.
The Essar group of Shashi and Ravi Ruia was the biggest overseas borrowers, mobilising $4.67 billion for Essar Global ($3.59 billion) and Essar Oil ($1.08 billion). AV Metal mobilised $3.1 billion followed by Reliance Industries ($2.7 billion), OP Jindal group ($2.40 billion), Tata Steel ($2.38 billion), Guru Gobindsingh Refineries ($1.95 billion), Suzlon Energy ($1.87 billion) and ICICI Bank ($1.8 billion).
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UBS added that its strategists are positively surprised by the scope and tone of the Plenum document.
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