Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of September quarter earnings, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will be the major driving factors for the equity market this week, according to analysts. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Guru Nanak Jayanti. "India is set to release CPI and IIP data on November 12, with WPI data expected on November 14.
The behaviour of the foreign institutional investors is gauged from the numbers put out by the exchanges and regulators.
Foreign investors have injected close to Rs 33,700 crore in domestic equities in this month so far primarily due to interest rate cut in the US and resilience of the Indian market. This also marks the second highest inflow in a month in this year so far, the last one being in March, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused Rs 35,100 crore, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trend of FPIs buying is likely to continue in the coming days, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
Abu Dhabi's International Holding Company (IHC), one of the largest sovereign funds that manages assets close to $100 billion, has reaffirmed its support to the Adani Group, saying its outlook on investments in the group remains unchanged despite the US indictment of the conglomerate's founder chairman Gautam Adani. "Our partnership with the Adani Group reflects our confidence in their contributions to the green energy and sustainability sectors," IHC, one of Adani group's key foreign investors, said in a statement.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
Global financial majors, who until recently viewed India as a safe investment decision, are having second thoughts.
As the coronavirus pandemic is triggering fears of a global recession, foreign investors have started rowing back from the Indian capital markets by withdrawing a massive over Rs 1 lakh crore in March after remaining net buyers for six consecutive months. In order to contain the spread of coronavirus, lockdowns have become a norm the world over and have led the FPIs to adopt a cautious stance, market experts said.
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
Singh said that a good climate has developed for foreign investors in India.
The tax dept has served notices on about 36 foreign investors.
Three alternative approaches under consideration envisage addressing the flaws of the domestic market, broadening the foreign institutional investor framework and replacing the FII regime with a QFI framework. By reducing the complexity of obtaining permits, foreign investors will be encouraged to us onshore Indian stock market platforms. Individual investors will be allowed to trade on Indian bourses by opening a demat account and a bank account.
FIIs pump in $1.4 billion in March, after pulling out $2.9 billion in Jan-Feb.
In its first bi-monthly policy, the RBI, in order to enhance hedging facilities for foreign investors in debt instruments, proposed to allow them to hedge the coupon receipts falling due during the next 12 months.
Low cost carrier Jagson Airlines, which is to launch operations from May, on Thursday said it has sold about 15.99 per cent stake to a foreign investor and could go in for public issue next year.
However, foreign investors have completely shunned the infrastructure sector.
The primary market is expected to remain vibrant, with at least 10 companies, including supermart major Vishal Mega Mart and Blackstone-owned diamond grading firm International Gemmological Institute (India) Ltd expected to raise a combined Rs 20,000 crore in the next month, merchant bankers said. Education-focused NBFC Avanse Financial Services, TPG Capital-backed Sai Life Sciences, hospital chain operator Paras Healthcare, and investment bank DAM Capital Advisors are also among the companies planning to launch their IPOs in December, they added. The companies aim to raise a total of Rs 20,000 crore through their public offerings.
Last October's circular meant that downstream investment by such funds by way of subscription or acquisition of shares would have been considered "indirect foreign investment" if their investment manager or sponsor is owned or controlled by a non-resident. The finance ministry has now said that mutual funds that invest more than 50 per cent in equity shall be omitted from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Mutual Funds) Regulations, 1996.
The government is planning to introduce legislative changes to the Foreign Exchange Management Act (Fema) regulations, with a focus on easing the pathway for inflows from a foreign portfolio investor to transition seamlessly into foreign direct investments (FDI) once the FPI surpasses the 10 per cent ownership threshold in a company. This move stems from multiple requests by foreign investors seeking to streamline the reporting requirements that arise when their stakes in Indian firms cross the 10 per cent mark.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
Quarterly earnings from corporates, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will guide market sentiment this week, analysts said, adding that benchmark indices may face volatile trends. "The upcoming release of Q2 results will be closely watched, providing insights into corporate performance. "Meanwhile, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran introduce a significant geopolitical risk, potentially leading to increased oil prices and market volatility.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Enthused by robust financial performance and attractive valuations, foreign investors increased their exposure to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies such as Britannia, Hindustan Unilever and Godrej Consumers Products in April-June this year.
FDI in April, 2007-08 was $1.64 billion which was less than half of the figures in April this fiscal. "I want to dispel fears of any economic slowdown and investment drying up," Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath told reporters in New Delhi on Thursday.
'Volumes in F&O trading had gone up rapidly and, in a way, the increase in STT on F&O will protect investor interest.'
Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh emphasised on Thursday job creation potential of foreign investors operating their plants in the state saying his government was equally concerned with employment aspect just as the volume of investment.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Foreing investors have high hopes from India due to an uptick in the economy
'Geopolitics will be the most important driver of financial markets in 2025.'
Private equity (PE) activity in India between January and November 2024 recorded a total value of $30.89 billion across 1,022 deals, a 22.7 per cent increase in value and an 18.4 per cent rise in deal count compared to $25.17 billion across 863 deals during the same period in 2023. Notable large deals during the period include Walton Street India Investment Advisors at $1.5 billion, and KiranaKart Technologies at $1.35 billion.
French energy giant TotalEnergies SE on Monday said it will make no new financial contribution as part of its investments in Adani group companies till the Indian firm's founder is cleared of bribery charges. The energy giant said it was not aware of the investigation into the alleged corruption. TotalEnergies is one of the biggest foreign investors in billionaire Gautam Adani's business empire and had previously taken stakes in the group's renewable energy venture Adani Green Energy Ltd (AEGL) and city gas unit Adani Total Gas Ltd (ATGL).
The exodus of foreign investments from Indian equity markets continued unabated, with FPIs pulling out nearly Rs 20,000 crore in the last five trading sessions on higher valuations of domestic stocks and shifting their allocation to China. As a result, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in the equity market, with total outflows reaching Rs 13,401 crore for 2024 so far. Going ahead, the FPI selling trend is likely to continue in the near term till data indicate the piossibility of a trend reversal.
MCX has been struggling to raise funds with a rights issue, ending on Thursday.
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
Back after roadshows across the globe, Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde on Thursday exuded confidence that foreign investors will line up for the government's ambitious ultra mega power projects.
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