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When will COVID-19 end in India? Here's the answer

April 27, 2020 12:51 IST
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According to a study done by Singapore University of Technology and Design Data, coronavirus will 100 per cent end across the world on December 8.

IMAGE: A woman cycles past a wall graffiti during the COVID-19 lockdown in New Delhi. Photograph: Manvender Vashist/PTI Photo

'When will we able to step out of our homes? When will this dreaded coronavirus pandemic end' are the questions that most of us are asking one another.

And researchers in Singapore have risked answering this question.

On the basis of the pattern of spread of Covid-19 from China to the rest of the world and slowing down, the researchers in Singapore have a predicted date for 131 countries each when novel coronavirus outbreak will end there (please click here for their detailed study).

 

Based on the latest Singapore University of Technology and Design Data-Driven Innovation Lab, India should see a 97 per cent free from Covid-19 infection by around May 21. Keep in mind that this prediction is a data-driven estimation of end dates (as of April 24, 2020).

This is close to what the Indian Council for Medical Research hinted last week. ICMR director Dr Balram Bhargava had said, "One can say we have been able to flatten the curve."

Similarly, last Friday, VK Paul, NITI Aayog member and head of a key government empowered committee on medical management, presented a study in which he predicted that new cases would cease by May 16.

As per his study, from May 3, India would hit its peak in adding daily new cases at a little above 1,500 and this would drop to 1,000 cases by May 12, and down to zero by May 16. In all, this would mean that no more than 35,000 cases would be added between Saturday and the first fortnight of May.

IMAGE: According to the study, by June 1, India will have cured 99 per cent of Covid-19 cases. Photograph: ddi.sutd.edu.sg

The model uses data from Our World in Data and code from Milan Batista and applies the SIR Model for Spread of Disease -- The Differential Equation Model -- to predict when the pandemic might end in different countries and in the world. The website also states that the estimates are updated daily with the latest data and the analysis and predictions are only for educational and research purposes.

The university has also predicted the estimated COVID-19 end dates for a bunch of other countries and the world at large.

According to its calculations, COVID-19 will turn in Singapoe around May 5 and end 97 per cent around June 4.

Similarly, the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States is expected to end 97 per cent around May 11, while in Italy the pandemic will end 97 per centaround May 7.

IMAGE: As per the study, China's 100 per cent end date was April 9. That hasn't happened on the ground, but on April 8, China allowed people to leave Wuhan, the epicentre of the disease. Photograph: ddi.sutd.edu.sg

The study expects that the coronavirus crisis will end in Iran on May 10, in Turkey on May 15, in the United Kingdom on May 9, in Spain at the beginning of the same month, and France on May 3.

In Germany, the study says that the pandemic will end on April 30 and Canada on May 16.

The calculations show that COVID-19 will 100 per cent end across the world on December 8.

However, this does not come without a note of caution. "The reality is the future is always uncertain. No one predicted the Covid-19 outbreak in October or November 2019, although Bill Gates famously warned about the potential damage of a global infectious disease to the world during a TED Talk in 2015," Jianxi Luo, the writer of the research paper said.

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The War Against Coronavirus