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Verdict 2019: Most exit polls get it right this time

Source: PTI
Last updated on: May 24, 2019 09:29 IST
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Most exit polls' forecast about the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance comfortably crossing the 300-mark in the Lok Sabha polls turned true on Thursday as the saffron party and its allies romping home with an excess of 300 seats.

IMAGE: BJP supporters celebrate after learning the election results at party headquarters in New Delhi. Photograph: Adnan Abidi/Reuters

According to Election Commission data, the NDA constituents won or were leading in 351 seats past midnight. The Congress and its allies won or were leading in 88 seats.


Exit polls by News 18-Ipsos, India Today-Axis and News 24-Chanakya had projected 336, 339-368 and 336-364 seats respectively for the NDA, and showed that the BJP would cross the majority mark on its own for another term.

Two exit polls -- one by ABP News-Nielsen and another by Neta-News X -- had said the ruling alliance may fall short of a majority.

ABP News had forecast 267 and NewsX 242 seats for the ruling NDA.

The CVoter-Republic exit poll had forecast 287 and 128 seats for the NDA and United Progressive Alliance respectively.

News 18-Ipsos, India Today-Axis and News 24-Chanakya had predicted 82, 77-108 and 86-104 seats for the Congress-led UPA.

ABP News-Nielsen and Neta-NewsX predicted 127 and 164 seats respectively for the UPA.

The CNN News18-Ipsos had projected only 46 seats for the Congress and 82 for its allies.

In 2014, the NDA had won 336 seats and the Congress 44.

The BJP had notched up its maiden majority by bagging 282 seats. Times Now had telecast two exit polls giving the NDA 296 and 306 seats, while projecting 126 and 132 for the Congress-led UPA.

In the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, ABP-Nielsen had predicted that the BJP's tally may fall to 22 from 71 in 2014 while a few others like New 18-Ipsos and News 24-Chanakya showing its tally to touch over 60 seats.

Some exit polls had predicted that the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance is likely to trump the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP had won 71 and its ally Apna Dal two of its 80 seats in 2014.

The CVoter-Republic forecast had given the grand alliance in UP 40 seats against 38 for the NDA, while the Jan Ki Baat had said the NDA may win 46-57 seats against 15-29 of the SP-BSP combine.

ABP News had predicted a huge loss for the BJP in the state, saying it may get only 22 seats while the opposition alliance may emerge victorious in 56 constituencies.

Past midnight, the BJP had won 59 seats and was leading in three in Uttar Pradesh. Its ally Apna Dal bagged two seats.

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