Unseasonal rainfall could damage standing wheat crops, especially late-sown fields nearing maturity and grain-filling stages.
After a cooler than usual late March, most weather officials said the wet spell in North India is likely to spill over to April, with back-to-back western disturbances expected.
While this could save people from the scorching summer heat for now, it could also damage standing wheat crops.
This is particularly true for crops sown late if the intensity of rain and thunderstorms is high.
Key Points
- Back-to-back western disturbances expected through early April may bring extended rain and thunderstorms across North and Central India.
- IMD forecasts additional disturbances between April 3 and April 8.
- Agriwatch estimates overall wheat productivity may decline by 1 to 1.5 per cent, with higher losses in severely affected states.
- Farmers advised to expedite harvesting to minimise crop damage as severe weather conditions are likely to intensify next week.
IMD rain and hailstorm alert
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its forecast on Sunday, said rain and hailstorms will continue over North and Central India over the next few days.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, meteorology and climate change, Skymet, in a post on social media platform X, said a series of back-to-back western disturbances are approaching North-West India in the coming days. They would unleash rain and thunderstorms.
He said the first one will be from March 30-31, the second one from April 3-4 and the last one April 6-8.
Skymet warns severe weather
Palawat added that the last western disturbance, which is expected from April 6-8, may be particularly severe, and this could have a damaging impact on standing crops.
He advised farmers to quickly harvest their standing crops next week to save themselves from the wrath of nature.
Wheat production outlook at risk
India's wheat production, according to the government's last official estimate, is projected at a record of over 120 million tonnes.
However, some private estimates project a lower crop due to a sudden rise in temperature and some impact from early rain.
A preliminary assessment by Agriwatch for flour millers said unseasonal rainfall activity between March 11 and 22 impacted wheat-growing regions across northern and central India.
It affected crops at the grain-filling to maturity stage.
Crop damage and productivity loss
The impact varied spatially, as reflected in the accompanying district-level maps, with localised pockets seeing moderate-to-high damage amid largely low-intensity losses.
It said that based on their assessment of rainfall impact and crop conditions, the overall wheat productivity at the pan-Indian level is estimated to decline by a nominal approximately 1.0 to 1.5 per cent.
However, in the significantly-affected states, the productivity loss is expected to be relatively higher, in the range of 2 to 3 per cent.
These numbers could widen if rain continues over North and Central India over the next week to 10 days.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff
