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The 2019 Sikkim assembly election sentiment meter

By Rediff Labs
Last updated on: April 08, 2019 19:00 IST

Winning the Lok Sabha or assembly polls in Sikkim has eluded the national parties for the past four decades since the state came into being.

It has been the regional parties -- Sikkim Sangram Parishad of Nar Bahadur Bhandari and Sikkim Democratic Front of Pawan Kumar Chamling -- which have won the lone Lok Sabha seat and the state assembly since 1979.

 

In an exception, in the first Lok Sabha polls held in Sikkim in 1977, two years after its merger with India, the Congress had won unopposed to the Parliament.

In respect to the assembly polls it has tasted limited success so far. The party had won an assembly seat in 1984, two in 1994 and a lone one in 2004.

The BJP is yet to open its account in the 32-member assembly of the Himalayan state.

Above is a sentiment meter for the 2019 electoral battle.

A mathematical model is used to calculate how seat distribution will be altered as sentiment/percentage of votes towards a contesting political party changes.

Based on the change, each constituency is marked with the winning party.

A swing represents that the victory margin is close to the runner-up party.

Move the pointer on the sentiment meter (depending on who you think will get more votes) towards the political parties to see how the outcome is likely to change.

Rediff Labs
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