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Exit polls fail to gauge Oppn fight in 2 states

Source: PTI
October 24, 2019 23:26 IST
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IMAGE: Supporters of the Nationalist Congress Party celebrate outside the party office after learning of poll results in Mumbai. Photograph: Francis Mascarenhas/Reuters

Most exit polls had predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party would drub its rivals in Maharashtra and Haryana, but they turned out to be way off the mark, failing to gauge the fight put up by the Opposition.

The biggest shocker is in Haryana where at least three exit polls predicted decimation of the Opposition, but the BJP won 40 seats in the 90-member assembly and the Congress 31 seats.

The exit polls forecast did not match the actual results.

The ABP-C Voter had predicted 70 seats for the BJP and eight for the Congress, while the CNN-IPSOS and Times Now forecast of 75 and 71 for the BJP and 10 and 11 for the Congress respectively.


The India Today-Axis poll was the only one to get it right in Haryana. It had predicted a tough contest between the Congress and the BJP.

It said the BJP will win 32-44 seats in Haryana, while the Congress will bag 30-42 seats and 6-10 seats for the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayaka Janta Party (JPP).

Its forecast about the actual results in Maharashtra was also close to the actual results.

In Maharashtra, the India Today-Axis poll predicted 166-194 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena, 72-90 for the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party and 22-34 for other smaller parties and independents.

In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine bagged 161 seats and the Congress-NCP alliance 101 seats.

The ABP-C Voter had a made a forecast of 210 seats for the BJP and 63 seats for the Congress-NCP alliance, while the Times Now gave 230 and eight for 48 for the BJP-Sena and the Congress-NCP combine.

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