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How exit polls on Gujarat, Himachal differ from actual results

Source: PTI
December 09, 2022 01:02 IST
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All exit polls predicted a Bharatiya Janata Party win in Gujarat but only a few got its scale right, while for Himachal Pradesh, most pollsters got it wrong as they failed to predict a Congress win.

IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president JP Nadda being garlanded during the celebrations of BJP's victory in the Gujarat assembly elections, at party headquarters in New Delhi, December 8, 2022. Photograph: Atul Yadav/PTI Photo

The BJP posted a historic victory in Gujarat, winning 156 seats in the 182-member state assembly.

The Congress party finished second, winning a paltry 17 seats, while the Aam Aadmi Party bagged just five.


The Aaj Tak-Axis My India exit poll nearly got it right as it had predicted 129-151 seats for the BJP, 16-30 seats for the Congress and 9-21 seats for the AAP.

News 24-Today's Chanakya also was close in its prediction as it had projected an average of 150 seats for the BJP, 19 for the Congress and 11 for the AAP.

Both pollsters were a little off the mark in predicting the AAP's seats.

All pollsters called the result right but failed to accurately predict the scale.

While ABP News C-Voter had predicted 128-140 seats for the BJP, 31-43 for the Congress and 3-11 for the AAP, the News X-Jan Ki Baat exit poll on Gujarat elections had said the BJP was likely to get 117-140 seats, the Congress-NCP 34-51, the AAP 6-13 and others 1-2.

The Republic TV P-MARQ had predicted that the BJP would bag 128-148 seats, the Congress-NCP 30-42, the AAP 2-10 and others 0-3 seats.

TV9 Gujarati forecast that the BJP would get 125-130 seats, the Congress-NCP 40-50, the AAP 3-5 and others three-seven.

According to the India TV-Matrize exit poll, the BJP was likely to get 112-121 seats, Congress 51-61 and the AAP one-seven.

The Zee News-BARC poll had given the BJP 110-125 seats, 45-60 to the Congress and one-five to the AAP.

Despite most pollsters predicting otherwise, the Congress wrested Himachal Pradesh from the BJP, winning 40 seats in the 68-member Assembly. The BJP won 25 seats.

Independents won from three constituencies, and the Aam Aadmi Party, which had contested from 67 seats, failed to open its account.

For Himachal Pradesh as well, Aaj Tak-Axis My India had got its prediction right.

It had predicted that the BJP would get 24-34 seats and the Congress 30-40 seats.

Most pollsters got it horribly wrong as they had given the edge to the BJP and showed the Congress falling short of the majority mark in the state.

News 24-Today's Chanakya had pointed to a cliffhanger in Himachal Pradesh, predicting 33 seats for both the BJP and the Congress with a margin of plus-minus seven seats for both.

While ABP News C-Voter had said the BJP was likely to get 33-41 seats and the Congress 24-32, India TV predicted that the BJP would bag 35-40 seats, Congress 26-31 and the AAP zero.

News X-Jan Ki Baat survey had said the BJP was likely to get 32-40 seats in the hill state, Congress 27-34 and the AAP zero.

While Republic TV P-MARQ predicted that the BJP would get 34-39 seats, Congress 28-33 and the AAP 0-1, the Times Now-ETG exit poll said the average number of seats the BJP was likely to get was 38 and the Congress 28.

According to Zee News-BARC, the BJP was expected to get 35-40 seats in Himachal Pradesh, while the Congress was likely to bag 20-25 seats.

Exit polls often get it wrong while predicting election results in India as there are complex factors at play but are hotly debated when they are out and eagerly awaited when polling ends.

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