'The unexpected turn of events and assertion of sovereignty by the Taliban has baffled the Pakistan security establishment.'
Key Points
- The Taliban's 2021 return to power fundamentally shifted the regional security balance.
- Advanced American weapons left behind in Afghanistan have significantly enhanced the TTP's combat capability.
- The TTP's core demands include demerger of former FATA from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and enforcement of Sharia with armed freedom of movement.
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has re-emerged as one of the most serious security threats to the Pakistani State.
Its renewed strength is closely linked to the geopolitical upheaval that followed the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.
What Islamabad once viewed as a controllable militant spillover has now evolved into a direct and escalating challenge to its authority, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the former tribal belt.
The roots of the crisis go back to 9/11. After the September 11, 2001 attacks, the US invaded Afghanistan to dismantle al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban regime that sheltered it.
Although the Taliban government was toppled quickly, the insurgency regrouped across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and fought American and Afghan forces for two decades.
During this period, several jihadist groups operated in the region, including the TTP, formed in 2007, which targeted the Pakistani State for siding with Washington.
When US forces withdrew in August 2021 and the Taliban swiftly returned to power in Kabul, the regional security balance shifted dramatically.
The Taliban's victory emboldened allied militant networks, including the TTP. Pakistan expected the new Afghan Taliban government to rein in or extradite TTP leaders.
Instead, Kabul has resisted taking decisive action against them.
The Afghan Taliban's reluctance stems from ideological affinity, battlefield ties forged during the anti-US insurgency, and deep tribal linkages across the Durand Line (the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan).
Many TTP fighters had fought alongside the Afghan Taliban. Moving against them risks internal rifts within the Taliban's ranks.
After Pakistan air force jets bombed Kabul and Kandahar on Thursday, February 26, 2026, Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff spoke to Avinash Mohananey, a retired Intelligence Bureau officer who spent a considerable time in Pakistan on security assignments for his assessment of Pakistan's declared 'open war' against Afghanistan.
What is the reason for the sudden spurt of attacks by Pakistan on Afghanistan? What triggered it?
To understand what is happening today between Pakistan and Afghanistan, one must go back in time to 2021. In August 2021, the Americans withdrew hastily from Afghanistan after having captured the country from the Taliban in 2001.
After the humiliating departure of the Americans, the ragtag army of the Afghan Taliban took control of the entire country.
In their fight against the Americans, the Afghan national army and troops from the NATO countries, the Afghan Taliban were supported by fighters from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) of China.
After August 2021, when the Americans withdrew, the Afghan Taliban suggested to the Pakistan government to hold talks with the TTP to facilitate the return of their cadres to their homes in Pakistan.
The same offer was given to Uzbekistan in respect of Ithe MU and China in respect of the ETIM.
The Afghan Taliban added that they were ready to facilitate talks between the TTP and the Pakistan government.
The Afghan Taliban were not interested in hosting the TTP at that point of time as they had assured in the Doha agreement that they would not allow Afghan soil for terrorism against the US and its allies.
On the other hand, Pakistan was hoping that the Afghan Taliban would hand over TTP cadres and Baloch separatists based in Afghanistan to Pakistan's security agencies, reminding the Taliban of the support it had extended to them during their war against the US and its allies.
So, Pakistan has a problem with the TTP who are against the Pakistan government and the Taliban supports the TTP rather than hand their leaders over to Pakistan.
Yes, the TTP did not agree to surrender to the Pakistan government. At the behest of the Pakistan government, negotiations were held between Pakistan and the TTP facilitated by the Taliban in June 2022 along with an announcement of a cease-fire by the TTP.
Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed (who is now in the Pakistan army's custody for his alleged proximity to Imran Khan), who was then the director general of the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), and the corps commander Peshawar were the points persons from Pakistan to hold the talks.
As a goodwill gesture, Pakistan then released some TTP leaders, who were imprisoned in Pakistani jails.
Why did matters between the TTP and Pakistan government deteriorate?
The TTP wanted Pakistan to agree to two core demands. The first one was demerger of FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
The second demand was that that the TTP wanted Sharia law to be implemented in the erstwhile FATA and free movement of its cadres with weapons there.
What is FATA? And how different it is from the Durand Line that is the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan?
The erstwhile FATA region included areas like Waziristan, Bajaur, Mohmand, Kurram, Orakzai and Khyber touching Chitral in Pakistan occupied Kashmir and down to Dera Ismail Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
For convenience of keeping these tribes under control, the British had created FATA and implemented the Frontier Crime Regulation Act that included collective punishments.
The British regularly bombed these areas to keep control over these tribes.
Tribesmen from these very areas were facilitated by Pakistan on October 22, 1947 to attack Kashmir who were eventually thrown out by the Indian Army. These areas were amalgamated by Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2018 for better control over the tribes.
Now, the TTP wants this belt touching Afghanistan to be demerged from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. By demanding implementation of Sharia and free movement, the TTP wants its rule in the former FATA.
What danger does Pakistan feel if it separates FATA from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?
They (the Pakistan army) fear that the TTP will have its own check posts in FATA, collect taxes and make it as a base for further expansion in settled areas.
What is the Durand Line?
The border of FATA, which touches Afghanistan, is a part of the Durand Line between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It extends till the Balochistan province of Pakistan and is around 2,640 km.
The Taliban do not recognise the Durand Line drawn by the British as it has divided Pashtun tribes on both sides.
When Pakistan asked TTP leaders to surrender and settle in Pakistan with their families, why did the TTP not trust the Pakistan establishment?
You got to remember all terror groups need only two things. One is money and the second is power with a further scope to expand their operations.
It doesn't matter if the terror group uses religion or ethnicity. The TTP felt that it has sacrificed too many lives and hence cannot just surrender before the Pakistan army.
Without expansion, groups like the TTP will not be able to recruit youth and generate finances. That is why the TTP wants to control the erstwhile FATA region.
Was Pakistan not supporting the Afghan Taliban secretly against the Americans?
Pakistan always played double games with the Americans. Everyone knows about the existence of the Taliban's Quetta Shura (leadership council).
While supporting the Taliban on the one hand, Pakistan also arrested Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef and handed him over to the US.
He was kicked and beaten by Pakistan ISI officers before handing him over to the Americans. The Americans then flew him to Guantanamo Bay.
Similarly, under American pressure, Pakistan arrested Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (now the Taliban's deputy prime minister) in 2010 and kept him in a Karachi jail.
He was released only when the Americans started talking with the Taliban directly in Doha, Qatar.
The basic problem is that Pakistan treats Afghanistan as its fifth province. Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa being the other four.
Besides, Pakistan shabbily treated and hastily deported lakhs of Afghan refugees, creating a huge humanitarian crisis.
How many Afghan refugees have been deported from Pakistan?
Around 1.4 million refugees have been deported. Many of them had their homes built in Pakistan, but they were forcefully vacated. Their homes have now been demolished by the Pakistan army.
Considering that Pakistan's economy is in terrible shape, what does the Pakistan army want on the Afghan front now?
The unexpected turn of events and assertion of sovereignty by the Taliban has baffled the Pakistan security establishment.
Unable to explain the lack of intelligence and willingness to take on the TTP, the Pakistan army finds it difficult to explain to the country why it is suffering so many casualties.
It blames Afghanistan and India for the TTP violence when the reality is that the depredations are being perpetrated by Pakistani cadres of the TTP.
Pakistan even blames attacks by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) on the Afghan Taliban without any basis.
The fact remains that the Taliban are continuously fighting battles with ISKP for maintaining control on Afghanistan.
Pakistan's problem is aggravated by the fact that the Americans left behind weapons and equipment worth $7.62 billion that included lethal M4 and M16 assault rifles.
The same rifles are being provided to terror groups in Kashmir by Pakistan's ISI.
These rifles can be fitted with thermal imagers and night vision devices, which have also been left in abundance by the Americans.
These weapon systems are now available with the TTP, which they are using effectively against the Pakistan army. These weapons are also available in the black market in Kabul and other places in Afghanistan.
Soon after the cease-fire was called off by TTP in November 2022, an attack on a police party near Peshawar on January 15, 2023 stunned Pakistan's security establishment.
The party was led by a deputy superintendent of police who were visiting a police station on the outskirts of Peshawar late in the night.
TTP terrorists attacked the police party in darkness using American weapons, killing three police personnel.
The Pakistan army later discovered that that the TTP terrorists had used M4 assault rifles.
The problem the Pakistan army is now facing that they can't see the enemy whereas the other side can easily identify and locate them.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
© 2026