'The BJP lacks a credible mass leader who matches Mamata Banerjee's popularity.'
'Given the division of votes among Opposition parties, the West Bengal government's dole-giving strategy, and the consolidation of the poor, significant sections of scheduled caste groups and Muslim minorities behind the ruling party, it will be difficult to dislodge the Trinamool from power.'
West Bengal Governor C V Ananda Bose on Saturday, April 19, 2025, toured the riot-affected areas of Murshidabad district despite Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's request to postpone his visit, and assured the victims of all possible help.
Violence broke out in Samsherganj, Suti, Dhulian and Jangipur areas of Murshidabad over anti-Waqf (Amendment) Act protests on April 11 and 12 that left three persons dead and hundreds displaced as their homes were burnt down and vandalised by miscreants
'I will look into their requests. They have asked for permanent BSF outposts in the locality as they were concerned about their security. I will take up the matter with the appropriate authorities. Some proactive action will definitely be taken,' Bose told reporters, the Press Trust of India reported.
'I have asked them (the victims) to feel free to talk to me. They want justice and they will get it. I am with the people of Bengal. I will function within the Constitution and establish the rule of law,' the governor added.
The Communist Party of India-Marxist on Sunday demanded a judicial probe into the communal riots in Murshidabad district, and accused the ruling Trinamool Congress and the Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party of colluding to engineer the violence for political gains ahead of the 2026 assembly elections.
Sounding the bugle for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections campaign from a mega rally of CPI-M's frontal organisations at the Brigade Parade grounds, party state secretary Mohammed Salim alleged that the TMC and BJP were engaged in 'competitive communalism' to divert public attention from pressing issues such as unemployment, price rise and corruption.
On the backfoot over the violence, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee accused the BJP and RSS of a 'vicious campaign'.
'BJP and its allies have suddenly become very aggressive in West Bengal. These allies include the RSS. I have not taken the RSS's name earlier, but I am being forced now to identify them. Together, they all have initiated a vicious false campaign in the state,' Banerjee alleged in a letter.
'These forces are using the backdrop of an unfortunate incident that happened on provocation. They are using the backdrop to play divisive politics. They are planning to play the 'divide and rule' game. This is sinister.'
"If the state government had done appeasement, then the socio-economic conditions and political representation of the Muslims in West Bengal could have been much better than the reported figures," Maidul Islam, a political scientist and professor of political science at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Kolkata, told Swarupa Dutt/Rediff in the first part of an interview.
In the concluding part of an indepth e-mail interview, Dr Islam asks, "Mamata herself is a Brahmin, and most of her cabinet colleagues are practising Hindus. How can the Hindu community be in danger with such a regime?"
Mamata says she will not implement the Waqf (Amendment) Act in the state. Muslims fear that changes to the 1995 law could leave waqf properties vulnerable to confiscation, dispute and demolition.
What do you think?
In India, waqf is primarily governed by state legislation, under the supervision of state waqf boards. However, the central government can also play a role through the Central Waqf Council and the Waqf (Amendment) Bill of 2025, given that waqf is in the domain of the Concurrent List (List III of the Constitution), with Entry 28 about 'Charities and charitable institutions, charitable and religious endowments and religious institutions.'
In the wake of a conflict on the Concurrent List, the central legislation will prevail over any state law.
However, the subject matter of waqf tends to be aligned with the State List, as indicated by the state-level waqf boards responsible for managing and protecting Waqf properties.
Suppose Mamata insists that she will not implement the Waqf (Amendment) Bill in the state by not reconstituting the state waqf board according to the new law of 2025.
In that case, one has to look at the court verdict in light of the legal challenges of various parties to the central legislation in the Supreme Court.
The Muslim fear about the new law, which could leave waqf properties vulnerable to confiscation, dispute, and demolition, is genuine.
The bogey of the Muslim population explosion in the state -- that it is now 30 percent of the population in Bengal (though the 2011 Census puts it at 27%) -- has allowed the BJP to say that unless the TMC is defeated Hindus are in danger.
I do not think that the TMC is a danger to Hindus. One must remember that most Trinamool leaders are themselves practising Hindus and are often known to showcase their grand Durga and Kali Puja celebrations along with participating in many other Hindu religious festivals.
Many of them came to political prominence through managing puja committees in local areas.
Mamata herself is spending a lot on religious tourism in the state, and it has been since 2016 that the state government has organised the grand Durga Puja on Kolkata's Red Road.
The message is loud and clear. Red Road is not just for celebrating Eid prayers twice a year, but also a site for Durga Puja.
Mamata's administration has also provided financial assistance to Hindu priests in the last few years.
From September 2020 onwards, the state welfare scheme for purohits have ensured monthly financial assistance of Rs 1,000 per month for poor Hindu purohits and poor priests of other communities like Christians, Jains, Buddhists and Parsis.
It was a balancing act after the financial assistance given to Muslim imams and muezzins as a monthly stipend, through the revenue generated by waqf properties under the state waqf board.
Mamata herself is a Brahmin, and most of her cabinet colleagues are practising Hindus. How can the Hindu community be in danger with such a regime?
Since 2021, the BJP has slightly altered its tune in Bengal. Bengal BJP leaders have stepped away from anti-Muslim rhetoric in their speeches, unlike in the 2021 polls.
The BJP now says they are in favour of 'Bharatiya Muslims' and that the TMC, Congress, and CPI-M have used Muslims as a vote bank.
I think the state unit of the BJP in West Bengal is confused on the Muslim question.
It seems that there are two different tactical lines on this matter.
The first one is shrill with anti-Muslim rhetoric like that of Dilip Ghosh and recently by Suvendu Adhikari.
In contrast, the second one is relatively balanced with a more accommodating approach like that of state president, Sukanta Majumdar.
Since the West Bengal BJP is a curious mix of old RSS-trained cadres like Dilip Ghosh and those who have come up after years of political work in BJP's mass organisations like Samik Bhattacharya, Rahul Sinha and ex-CPI-M leaders like Khagen Murmu, the ex-CPI-M MLA from Habibpur and the two-time North Malda MP from BJP, or Shankar Ghosh, the ex-DYFI leader from North Bengal and current MLA from Siliguri, and ex-Trinamool leaders like Suvendu Adhikari, Shantanu Thakur, Arjun Singh, Nisith Pramanik etc.
In such a milieu, discordance between several factions is exposed.
During the Sandeshkhali incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that Muslim women would vote against the Trinamool Congress because of the torture of women there. Rajbanshi Muslims from north Bengal have also participated in Modi's rallies.
Is the situation changing for the BJP, and will 2026 give them more seats? Will they be able to form a government in the state? Is there a pushback from Muslims towards the BJP?
According to the CSDS post-poll survey, the BJP has been getting between 6% and 8% of votes from the Muslim community in West Bengal for successive assembly and Lok Sabha elections in recent years.
It is the only credible study political scientists rely on for voting behaviour in India.
Muslims in the state won't vote for the BJP, given recent bills like the CAA, criminalisation of instant triple talaq, and the Waqf (Amendment) Bill that specifically target Muslims, along with a vitriolic campaign by BJP leaders against the minorities.
I do not think the BJP will be able to form the government in 2026 for several reasons.
Firstly, it lacks a credible mass leader who matches Mamata Banerjee's popularity.
West Bengal has witnessed the rise of Jyoti Basu as an Opposition leader during the Congress period and the emergence of Mamata Banerjee during the Left Front regime. The BJP has yet to score on that front.
Secondly, West Bengal has a history of long, stable regimes if a government is voted back to power with a comfortable majority.
Barring the period of instability during 1967-1977, when no decisive mandate favoured any single political formation, the logic of long years of stability has been the case during the Congress system and the Left Front regime. Such an electoral trend has been continuing at present during the Trinamool regime.
Thirdly, the significant presence of Muslim minorities, constituting 27% of the population, with the potential to influence the electoral outcome without a prominent minority party, unlike Assam, deters the polarising tactics of the RSS-BJP.
Fourthly, a new educated middle class is slowly growing among the OBCs, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes under the Trinamool regime because the reservation policy is now strictly implemented in government jobs and education.
This educated middle class among the reserved constituencies, who are the beneficiaries of the Trinamool regime, often acts as the new opinion makers within their respective communities in favour of the incumbent Trinamool government.
Fifthly, the incumbent Trinamool government's popularity among the urban and rural poor due to the delivery of various welfare schemes has created conditions where the BJP finds it challenging to make a viable social coalition for more extensive political mobilisation.
Sixthly, factional fights in the BJP at various levels have been a reality in Bengal, along with a lack of discipline among its new entrants due to the absence of a popular leader.
Finally, West Bengal is a highly politicised state with everyday politics in many local institutions, including educational institutions, local clubs and citizens' platforms.
The strong presence of the Left and the Trinamool in the existing local institutions counters the RSS in the social sphere.
Given the multipolar nature of the electoral contest, the division of votes among the Opposition parties, the dole-giving strategy of the West Bengal government, and the consolidation of the poor, significant sections of the scheduled caste groups and Muslim minorities behind the ruling party, it will be difficult to dislodge the Trinamool from power.
Is Bengal a communal cauldron that will spill over?
Bengal can be a site for possible communal backlash in the long run.
The continuous false narrative of Muslim population explosion and that the Trinamool government often favours the Muslims is actually a result of the growing visibility of Muslims in publicly expressing their religious symbols and religious attire as a response to the assertive display of Hindu religious symbols, festivals and attire in the last two decades.
Moreover, there is now a visible and growing Muslim middle class in West Bengal, thanks to the benefits of OBC reservation that various caste groups among both Hindus and Muslims avail in higher education admission and government employment from 2010 onwards because of the implementation of a new OBC reservation policy after the recommendation of UPA government appointed Ranganath Misra Commission.
Besides such a trend, Muslims have been doing well in small and medium-sized businesses and trade and an increasing visibility in the professions of medicine, engineering and law that started with the efforts of Al-Ameen mission schools from the early 2000s, teaching and coaching Muslim students to crack competitive exams in those professional fields.
The emergence of a slow but steady Muslim middle class was unthinkable two decades ago.
In other words, the Hindu Bengalis who till recently were not habituated to seeing Muslims in their professions or as colleagues in schools, colleges, universities, hospitals, courts, and government offices suddenly see several Muslims in their workplace.
In a state where the private sector is not expanding much, government employment is key for jobs for the next generation, and in that too, the complaint is that either the jobs are discarded because of corruption, or some Muslim has taken the job because of OBC reservation.
After the 1923 Bengal Pact initiated by C R Das, the political power of Muslims in undivided Bengal increased.
By the 1930s, the province had a visible Muslim middle class. The Bengali upper caste middle class was saved from Partition.
It remained at the helm of affairs without enormous challenge in the socio-economic and political sphere in the post-independence decades.
However, now there is a renewed sense of Bengali conservative sentiments against Muslims, in the context of the minority community's increasing visibility among the Bengali middle classes or the Bengali Bhadrolok professions.
When analysing the state's 'communal cauldron', this context must be considered.
Religious assertions and identities are increasingly becoming important with the rapid decline of the secular, liberal and left forces like the Congress and Left Front as primary Opposition in the state, with the rise of the BJP as the new Opposition party.
It is a challenge for the Trinamool, Left and the Congress to recalibrate the issues of income, inflation, employment, access to public amenities, health, education and public infrastructure as opposed to the religio-cultural and identitarian issues as promoted by the BJP to isolate the communal forces in the state.
The Trinamool can also rely on nativist Bengali articulation while identifying the BJP as the party of Hindi speaking North India who want to impose cultural and culinary traits of North India over the Bengalis.
Such a Bengali nativist campaign was seen in both 2021 and 2024 by the Trinamool. I won't be surprised if it is repeated.
IMAGE: Professor Maidul Islam.
Bangladeshi illegal infiltration into Bengal is also a very real fear among the majority community.
Given that epar bangla--opar bangla (West Bengal and Bangladesh) after 1971 was so much about a confluence and sharing of language, culture, music, art, food, and people, could the problem of Bangladeshi infiltration have been handled better by the state government?
This question must first be posed to the central government in general and the home ministry, army, Border Security Forces, and central Intelligence Bureau in particular.
After all, if there is any illegal immigration, then they must check such unlawful immigration from neighbouring countries.
Are there any corruption nexuses in the BSF that facilitate illicit immigration, smuggling, and trafficking? It is unfair to say that Mamata is the reason behind Bangladeshi infiltration.
Now, with the recent CAA, even many Hindus and other religious minorities who want to come to India because of religious discrimination or communal violence or fragile law and order problems, like in current Bangladesh, cannot probably apply for Indian citizenship for two reasons.
First, December 31, 2014, is the cut-off mark for religious minorities from neighbouring countries who come to India to seek Indian citizenship after six years of stay in India.
This effectively means that no one who arrives in India after 2014 will be eligible to apply for Indian citizenship under the CAA provisions and will have to wait for the normal eleven years of residence in India.
Secondly, the aspect of 'religious persecution' in the CAA is a difficult task to prove for those migrants who want to apply for Indian citizenship under the CAA.
How can a person prove his/her religious persecution in another country? After all, he/she cannot have an official certificate of religious persecution issued by the relevant authorities in a neighbouring country!
The BJP-RSS ecosystem is only targeting the Trinamool on illegal immigration because they do not have any satisfactory answers to these questions. However, if there are any cases of illegal immigration, then the central and state agencies must collaborate to check such a menace.
Feature Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff
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