'This will split the Marathi and Shiv Sena vote.'
'The BJP has conducted 3 surveys indicating they shall secure 109 seats in the BMC.'
'They do not wish for the Shinde Sena to demonstrate excessive strength in the BMC.'
'If the Thackerays secure 60-70 seats, that will affect Shinde's seats.'
Maharashtra's municipal council and nagar panchayat elections in urban areas have delivered a resounding verdict in favour of the ruling Mahayuti alliance, reaffirming the coalition's dominance following its assembly election victory last year.
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance swept the polls, securing 207 of 288 president posts, while the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi managed a mere 44.
The BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 117 president posts, followed by the Shiv Sena with 53 and the Natonalist Congress Party with 37.
In contrast, the Congress won just 28, with the NCP (Sharad Pawar) securing seven and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) winning nine -- exposing the Opposition's continued struggles at the grassroots level.
Vivek Bhavsar, a keen observer of Maharashtra's politics for more than two decades, spoke with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff about these results and their significant implications for the January 2026 municipal corporation elections in 29 cities including the most prestigious BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation.
What are the biggest surprises from the municipal council and nagar panchayat elections that the BJP-led alliance swept across Maharashtra?
I would not characterise this outcome as surprising. Following the assembly elections, there was a clear mandate in favour of the BJP.
Under Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, people are witnessing Maharashtra progressing at unprecedented pace. Several development and infrastructure projects are underway.
When he confidently declares that we shall become a trillion-dollar economy, this is not merely a dream -- it shall become a reality. Maharashtra is poised to become a super economic power, and that is why people have placed their trust in him.
One expected the BJP to face the brunt of Chief Minister Fadnavis's scrutiny of the Ladki Bahin scheme, with approximately 26 lakh ineligible beneficiaries identified. Still the BJP's performance remained the strongest.
It (the CM's scrutiny of Ladki Bahin scheme, a brainchild of then chief minister Eknath Shinde just before the assembly elections in 2024) assisted rather than hindered their performance.
Though there were several lacunae -- with numerous working women inappropriately receiving benefits -- the chief minister has not scrapped the scheme entirely. Out of 2.24 crore beneficiaries, approximately 50 per cent were ineligible.
When I enquired why he did not scrap the scheme completely, given Maharashtra is already heavily burdened with debt, he told me there was no necessity to eliminate it entirely.
'We possess the capacity to provide monthly assistance to at least 1.5 crore women without placing undue pressure on the state treasury,' he had said.
There are three key factors at play: The Ladki Bahin scheme itself, Devendra Fadnavis representing the most trusted face of Maharashtra, and the speed of development.
The Viksit Maharashtra plan is exceptionally clear. People understand that aligning with Opposition parties would set the state back 10 to 15 years. The younger generation is witnessing development since 2014 and comparing this governance with previous administrations.
The Shinde Sena won 53 municipal president posts despite concerns about governance. How do you explain this?
His governance was not clean. He employed practices that worked against the state treasury. However, if we examine Shinde Sena leaders, most previously belonged to the Congress or the NCP.
In Nandurbar, Chandrakant Raghuvanshi led the party to an extraordinary victory, but he was originally a Congressman.
In Nashik, the NCP under Ajit Pawar played a pivotal role in rural areas, while the Shinde Sena dominated the city. These individuals possess their own base of support -- not because of Shinde himself, but due to their personal hold in their respective constituencies.
What was the most significant surprise in these elections?
The most striking development was that Konkan -- traditionally the bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena -- voted decisively for the Shinde Sena. We consistently stated that the Kokani manus, the chakarmanis (the working class people who now also form the base of the SS (UBT) in Mumbai are mostly migrants from the Konkan belt) would support Uddhav Thackeray.
Their voting for the Shinde Sena was genuinely surprising and may be reflected in the forthcoming BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation elections.
In Malwan-Sindhudurg, Narayan Rane's son Nilesh, who is a Shinde Sena MLA, performed exceptionally well. Leaders such as Uday Samant are now aligned with Shinde's faction. Only a handful like Bhaskar Jadhav and Vaibhav Naik remain with Uddhav Thackeray.
Most shakha pramukhs, local MLAs, and corporators are with the Shinde Sena. Shinde has provided them with financial power and resources. Financial power played a crucial role in this election for both the Shinde Sena and the BJP.
Could lack of financial resources explain why the Maha Vikas Aghadi did not perform well in these urban local body elections?
That is an open secret now. MVA leaders simply do not possess sufficient financial resources. Money plays a crucial role in any election. You must spend amounts exceeding Election Commission limits.
Furthermore, I observed during the December winter session (of the Maharashtra assembly) that Opposition leaders did not dare aggressively challenge the treasury benches. They fear that if they become too aggressive, the Enforcement Directorate or other agencies will exact revenge. This applies to SS (UBT) leaders as well.
Everybody has certain vulnerabilities. Congress and NCP leaders have educational institutions and sugar factories that do not operate with complete transparency.
Are these results a sign of the BJP's growing strength in rural Maharashtra?
The BJP is systematically establishing its base in rural Maharashtra.
When Devendra Fadnavis was chief minister from 2014 to 2019, even gram panchayat elections -- which traditionally were never contested on party symbols -- saw the BJP winning maximum sarpanch posts.
The strategy is clear: First secure victory in urban local bodies, then win municipal corporations, and based on these victories, triumph in gram panchayat elections. People will recognise that the corporation belongs to a particular party, so why oppose them at the grassroots? This will prove to be a game-changer.
Where did the MVA fall short?
It was a grave mistake for the Congress to align with Uddhav Thackeray in 2019 (after he decided to form the government). Ideologically they are vastly different. The Congress possessed a substantial base, but lost it due to that decision -- compromising on its ideology.
I must commend Harshwardhan Sapkal (the incumbent Maharashtra Congress president). Though he lacks mass appeal, he remained firm that Congress would contest separately. That was an excellent decision, allowing them to demonstrate strength in Vidarbha, their bastion.
If they adopt a similar approach in the BMC elections, they can win at least 40 corporators, up from 29 previously -- a substantial improvement.
In many towns, local leaders mattered more than party labels. Was this about individuals rather than ideology?
In Maharashtra, numerous leaders are 'subedars' -- they possess their own power within constituencies. Even if they change party affiliation, people follow them. This is person-oriented, leader-oriented politics.
In local elections, labels do not matter -- the individual leader's standing is paramount.
Looking ahead to the major civic polls including Mumbai, what is one lesson each party must learn?
For the BJP, good governance is the key mantra. For the SS (UBT), Aditya and Uddhav Thackeray should emerge from Matoshree (their home in Bandra, north west Mumbai) and meet people directly. They must travel extensively, meet Shiv Sainiks, and sit in their office near Mantralaya weekly.
Unfortunately, they remain trapped in the mindset of kings. People have exceedingly limited access to Matoshree -- that is the greatest problem facing the Thackerays.
For Shinde, he must compete vigorously with the BJP because he is aware that the BJP is systematically finishing his party. He must demonstrate strength through numbers.
For the NCP, both factions should unite -- both Sharad and Ajit Pawar need to come together, otherwise they shall be finished.
For the Congress, they must focus on ground-level work. They have forgotten their Seva Dal and NSUI (grassroots organisations), which once played pivotal roles in strengthening the party.
If they mobilise through andolans and protests, they will strengthen their base. The Congress is a venerable party with loyal followers everywhere. They must focus on them.
Forget immediate victory -- they need to work for ten years solely to strengthen their organisation at the grassroots level.
As for Sharad Pawar, he has become so weakened that he now must merge his party into Ajit Pawar's NCP.
Regarding the BMC elections, what are your expectations?
The BJP has conducted three surveys indicating they shall secure 109 seats, up from 82 in 2017. However, they do not wish for the Shinde Sena to demonstrate excessive strength in the BMC.
It was Devendra Fadnavis's strategic policy to encourage the Thackeray brothers to unite. This will split the Marathi and Shiv Sena vote.
If the Thackerays secure 60-70 seats, that will affect Shinde's seats.
Though the BJP and Shinde will form the government (in the BMC), the BJP shall maintain the upper hand. The BJP's strategy focuses on 2029 -- they are planning to secure power based on their own strength and must curtail the Shinde Sena's power.
However, in Mumbai, the Marathi manus has always remained loyal to the Thackerays. Both brothers are likely coming together and people believe they must stay with the Thackerays. Even Konkani voters in Mumbai will vote for Thackerays rather than Shinde.
Since the BJP is in power, they shall utilise every resource at their disposal to secure victory in the BMC and all municipal corporation elections.
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