'DMK Holds Advantage In Tamil Nadu Polls'

'The AIADMK front comes second, and then the TVK.'

The Tamil Nadu assembly has 234 seats and a party or front needs 118 seats to form the government.

In the 2021 assembly election, the DMK had an absolute majority having won 133 seats while the AIADMK won just 66 seats.

This time, other than the DMK and the AIADMK fronts, actor Vijay has made a grand entry with his party the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. Though the TVK may not win many seats, it can play spoilsport in many seats.

It is a fact that the AIADMK has not won any election after J Jayalalithaa passed away in December 2016. It lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election and also the 2021 assembly election to the DMK. And in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the DMK-Congress front swept all the 39 seats.

How will the state vote this time? Will the DMK come back to power like the surveys predict? What kind of impact will Vijay have in his first big election?

Based on the surveys he has conducted, Niranjan Ramesh Babu founder, Political Analytics, a political election campaign management company, discusses how Tamil Nadu is expected to vote.

"People in Tamil Nadu do not want the BJP to come to power," Mr Babu tells Rediff's Shobha Warrier.

The general perception is that the DMK alliance is on a strong wicket. You have done election surveys for some parties. Did you also get that feeling?

Compared to 2021, the DMK front is on a strong wicket.

It is mainly because the DMK is propagating about the schemes they have implemented. This has resulted in goodwill among their own voters and also among first-time voters.

Through multiple media channels, their message is spread both in rural and urban areas.

You said compared 2021, the DMK is on a strong wicket. You mean, there is no anti-incumbency after ruling the state for 5 years?

Of course, anti-incumbency will always be there.

But they are not talking about anything negative. Rather, they are talking only about the positive things they have done for the people.

For example, they are comparing the Dravidian model with Gujarat model and what they have achieved.

In 2021, they were in the Opposition, so the campaign was more against the AIADMK government than anything positive.

But in 2026, they are focussing only on their achievements, the schemes they have introduced, how people have benefitted, etc.

This kind of a positive campaign gives the people an idea of what the DMK has done in the last 5 years. This will make them think why not elect them again.

That is the advantage the DMK has this time.

'AIADMK is stronger than DMK in southern Tamil Nadu'

Till now, the fight in Tamil Nadu was between two major fronts led by the DMK and the AIADMK. But this time Vijay's TVK is as strong as the two fronts at least in perception.
It is said that the TVK has the support of young voters mainly because of Vijay's popularity as an actor. How do you see the TVK performing in the election?

I would say there are not three fronts but four fronts fighting out in the 2026 election.

The Naam Tamilar Kachi (NTK) led by Seeman also is as strong.

As a politician, Vijay has to meet people but whenever he tries to meet people, it becomes uncontrollable. That is because of his popularity as an actor.

If Vijay wants to be compared to the other seasoned politicians, he has to be accessible like other politicians and be in politics for long years. He talks about becoming the chief minister of Tamil Nadu in 2026. That is not possible at all.

When we did surveys in various parts of Tamil Nadu, we found that youngsters were crazy about Vijay, but they had no idea about politics.

Another point to note is the supporters of TVK are scattered all over Tamil Nadu unlike those of the DMK or the AIADMK. For example, the AIADMK is stronger than the DMK in southern Tamil Nadu.

You mean, consolidation of Vijay's votes will not happen?

Yes. That's why the maximum vote share he can hope for is 12%. Compared to Seeman's 8% to 10%, Vijay may do better. But he cannot even think of being a CM candidate this time.

I feel Vijay will not make that much of an impact this time. He will have to work hard for another 5 years as a politician to have an impact in Tamil Nadu politics.

When you conducted the surveys, did you find Vijay's inaccessibility a major negative factor for the TVK?

Yes, it is one of the factors, but not the major factor.

When he says the fight is between the DMK and TVK, he should come down to the ground and tell people how the DMK has fared in the last 5 years. But that is not happening.

He has not been able to have a big protest against the government like the Jallikettu protest we had in the past.

When it comes to politics, he has to be on the ground and that is missing in his campaign.

Next factor is the party doesn't follow any particular ideology. His supporters say they will vote for Vijay!

Some TVK leaders say they follow the ideology of Periyar or Ambedkar, but what is the ideology of the party?

On the other hand, people are still fascinated by the Dravidian ideology followed by Kalaignar Karunanidhi. The AIADMK also follows the same Dravidian ideology.

Then, some TVK leaders do not even know how many constituencies are there in Tamil Nadu. The other day, one of them said, Vijay will win all the 233 constituencies. Another said, there are 230 constituencies. They are there because they are the fans of Vijay but they have no knowledge of politics.

'Youngsters are attracted to young, fresh leaders than old people'

Were you able to find out why youngsters are attracted to Vijay? Is it only films?

Vijay as a film actor is one influencing factor. He has been part of their lives as an actor for many years.

Another thing is he is a new face in Tamil Nadu politics. He is also a young leader. Youngsters are attracted to young, fresh leaders than old people.

Seeman is also young. In DMK, there is Udhayanidhi Stalin but in AIADMK there are no young faces.

When Vijayakanth entered politics, his popularity as an actor got translated into votes initially. But to sustain, you have to perform as a political leader.

Who will get affected by the votes the TVK gets?

There is no doubt that some of the AIADMK votes are going to go to the TVK.

Though a few votes from the DMK also will go to the TVK, majority of the votes are going to be from the AIADMK.

In fact, the leaders who have joined the TVK are from the AIADMK. The most important leader who migrated from the AIADMK to the TVK is K A Sengottaian.

This exodus from the AIADMK is happening because the party was not active at all in the last 2-3 years.

Though EPS is looked at as an important leader, he has to fulfil the expectations of the people.

Still, the fight is between the DMK and the AIADMK in this election.

'BJP is strong only in some pockets'

You conducted surveys throughout Tamil Nadu. Where does the BJP stand in a state that is rooted in Dravidian ideology?

It is a fact that people in Tamil Nadu do not want the BJP to come to power.

They want Vijay to come to power.

They only see Vijay as an alternative to the DMK and the AIADMK. They do not see the BJP as an alternative.

The BJP is strong only in some pockets, and if you look at the seats the party is contesting, majority of them are around temples!

The BJP got roots in rural Tamil Nadu when Annamalai was the state leader. He was a role model for many young people. Till he came into prominence, nobody in rural Tamil Nadu had heard of the party. Now that he is not in focus, the BJP also has lost its support base among young people.

IMAGE: Niranjan Ramesh Babu

Is Seeman as big as Vijay in terms of his popularity as a leader?

I would say, yes. Because it is not very easy to get 8% of votes in Tamil Nadu.

And NTK is the only party that has given 50% of the seats to women! Whether they are winning or not, 50% of the party's candidates are women. No other political party in India can claim this distinction.

The NTK has been contesting elections alone without any alliance all along having developed roots in many rural areas because of the issues he has backed in a very aggressive way.

Judging from the mood of the people, is it advantage DMK in this election?

Yes, it is advantage DMK now.

In the leads position, the AIADMK front comes second, and then the TVK.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff