'Gehlot made it a Modi versus Gehlot contest. It was for the first time in a northern Indian state where the prime minister had to confront a chief minister.'
Prakash Bhandari, veteran observer of Rajasthan politics, reflects on the 2023 verdict in the desert state.
For the past six months Ashok Gehlot has claimed that the Congress would change the rivaz (ritual) and retain power in Rajasthan.
Every five years the electorate votes out the existing government in the arid state and power alternates between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party in a bipolar political system.
But this election, Gehlot, who practiced magic in his youth with his father, was outwitted by Narendra D Modi's magic.
Seventeen of Gehlot's ministers lost the election. As did assembly speaker C P Joshi and former minister Dr Raghu Sharma.
Gehlot could not help the Congress perform well in his native Marwar; of the 43 seats in the region the Congress won just seven seats against the 24 it won in 2018. The BJP won 23 seats in Marwar this time; Independents three.
Modi, who spearheaded the BJP campaign and made 13 trips to the state in the past 16 months, turned the tables on the Congress.
In the 2018 Vidhan Sabha election, the Congress wrested power with less than a one percent vote swing in its favour that won it 99 seats, two seats short of a majority. The BJP finished with 73 seats.
The Congress then formed the government with the support of Independents and six Bahujan Samaj party legislators.
This time, the BJP with 41.69 percent votes won 115 seats, 42 seats more than its 2018 tally.
The Congress with 39.5 percent votes won 69 seats, 30 seats less than its 2018 tally.
Independents and smaller parties, which polled 18.8 percent votes, could collectively win 15 seats against 27 seats in 2018.
Political observer Mahesh Sharma believe the conflict between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot caused immense damage to the Congress.
That Pilot was deprived of the chief ministership alientated his Gujjar community, which stayed away from the Congress, causing a loss of 27 seats in eastern Rajasthan.
"No party with a single person could win an election in a vast state like Rajasthan which in terms of area is the largest state in the country," says Sharma.
"Gehlot was carrying the burden of the campaign and also handling the affairs of the party organisation," adds Sharma. "He wanted to prove that he rules the roost in Rajasthan without knowing that it was leading to the party to electoral losses.".
Pilot was actively campaigning only in areas where the Gujjars were contestants or in constituencies where his loyalists were in the fray.
Twenty of his loyalists won the elections.
Gehlot locked horns with Modi during the election campaign and after each Modi rally, the chief minister would answer Modi through his media personnel.
"Gehlot made it a Modi versus Gehlot contest. It was for the first time in a northern Indian state where the prime minister had to confront a chief minister," points out Swarnim Chaturvedi, the Pradesh Congress general secretary.
This irked Modi so much that at a meeting in the tribal district of Dungarpur bordering Gujarat, he asked voters to take a pledge in tribal saint Mavji's name not to vote for the Congress.
"The Gehlot government offered the poor numerous welfare programmes and armed with this my party believed that there were no anti-incumbency factor against the government," says Nitin Sogani, a Congress party worker.
"Our programmes were good, but when the BJP played its Hindutva card and Modi led the campaign on caste and religion, the Congress had no answer," he adds.
Vasundhara Raje, who led the last BJP government in Rajasthan, said Modi should be solely credited for the party's electoral success.
Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, who is tipped to be the next chief minister, says the BJP has won the semi final prior to the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com
