The Americans can occupy Bab el Mandeb, claim to have 'solved' the Strait of Hormuz crisis, declare victory that President Trump so desperately needs, points out Colonel Anil A Athale, former head of the history division, ministry of defence.
Key Points
- Iran's move to choke the Strait of Hormuz has triggered global energy and trade disruptions.
- The US may shift focus to Yemen, aim to secure Bab el Mandeb and claim strategic victory amid the ongoing conflict.
The American and Israeli attacks on Iran that began on February 28, 2026 are four weeks old.
While much damage has been caused to Iran's military infrastructure and nuclear installations, Iran seems still capable of launching missile and drone attacks on Israel and American bases in the region.
A new threat has emerged as Iran has begun to use its geography to choke the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. It is technically an international waterway but under Iranian control.
Kharg Island plays a major role in this choking. It is also the main Iranian oil storage and export installation.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused global panic and the Gulf States, all American allies, are particularly hard hit as their exports and imports are choked.
This has given rise to talk of the American use of ground troops to occupy Kharg Island and free the Strait of Hormuz.
The news that the elite US 82nd Airborne division of paratroopers is in the area has raised the possibility of an airborne attack on Kharg.
A US Marine expeditionary force of 3,000 soldiers has also moved to the Persian Gulf.
The first Gulf War in 1991 saw the use of the 82nd and 101st Airborne divisions by the Americans.
The 101st Airborne division was used to cut off links between Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard deployed in Basra and the capital Baghdad.
The choke point where the rivers Tigris-Euphrates meet was chosen. The famous 3rd Army of World War II General George S Patton was used from the east to link up with the Airborne forces.
To maintain surprise, the Americans constantly talked of Marines and an assault from the sea. The constant talk of a likely assault on Kharg island appears to be a diversion.
No airborne attack can succeed unless the enemy is surprised. The paratroopers are extremely vulnerable while they come down. World history is riddled with failures of airborne operations.
Operation Market Garden in September 1944 -- nearly three months after the landing in Normandy -- was a major failure. This happened even as the Germans were in retreat and the Americans had complete control of air.
It is very unlikely that the Americans will attempt an airborne assault on Kharg Island. The capture of Kharg Island will still not free the Strait of Hormuz as the Iranians can still target it from their coastal positions.
But if the reports of the 82nd Airborne division on the move are true, then it is certainly going to be used in the ongoing war.
The Strategic Importance Of Bab el Mandeb
The Gulf States and Saudi Arabia as well as the US must have certainly anticipated the Iranian move to shut the Strait of Hormuz.
As an alternative, pipelines to carry oil to Red Sea ports exist. It is entirely possible that this is already being done.
But the alternative is not secure. The Bab el Mandeb (Gate of Tears or Grief) Strait in the Gulf of Yemen forms another choke point for maritime traffic from the Red Sea.
Over the last several years the Houthi rebels -- allies of Iran -- control parts of Yemen and have been targeting civilian shipping.
Thus, for an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz to work it is essential to control Bab el Mandeb.
The Americans are likely to use their 82 Airborne division and Marines to secure this part of Yemen.
Mayyun island (old name Perim) is barely 13 sq km in size with a population of 200 people. It is reported to be in possession of the UAE since 2021.
This island alongside the port of Ras Menheli on the mainland of the Arabian peninsula can easily be occupied by the American 82nd Airborne division and Marines.
Alongside the villages of Samudera and Murad, the Americans can eliminate land-based threat to shipping in Bab el Mandeb.
This will secure Bab el Mandeb.
The Houthis are far less formidable than Iran, and the western coast line of Somalia does not pose a threat unlike the Iranian coast in case of the Strait of Hormuz.
This will be like the American attack on Grenada on October 25, 1983. During Operation Urgent Fury, American might was unleashed on a force of the Grenadan lightly armed force of around 2,000 locals. The 82nd Airborne division formed the major part of the invading force.
After several hiccups and clumsy co-ordination, the Americans won. Then US President Ronald Reagan claimed to have restored American prestige that had suffered due to the rout in Vietnam.
The American operations against Iran are curiously named Operation Epic Fury; any resemblance to Grenada is purely accidental!
The Americans can occupy Bab el Mandeb, claim to have 'solved' the Strait of Hormuz crisis, declare victory that President Trump so desperately needs.
Will the Americans have an easy time in Yemen?
The mountainous terrain makes defence easy. Success largely depends on whether the Americans achieve surprise. Or else the US is likely to pay a price in terms of casualties though the outcome is not in doubt.
These are Colonel Anil A Athale's personal views.
You can read Colonel Athale's earlier columns here.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
