What's in store for realty sector in 2026? A mixed bag

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January 02, 2026 12:07 IST

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After three post-pandemic years of an upcycle, it was a mixed bag for the realty sector in 2025, with sales volumes in the residential real estate moderating across top cities, and commercial real estate and institutional investments emerging as standout performers.

Realty

Illustration: Dominic Xavier/Rediff

Residential: Volumes soften, value holds firm

Kousing sales volumes across top seven cities are estimated to be lower in 2025 by about 15 per cent versus 2024, Anuj Puri, chairperson, Anarock, said high prices, global uncer­tainty and geopolitical ten­sions weighed on senti­ment, though end-user demand remained intact.

 

Around 459,000 homes were sold in 2024, down 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). In the first nine months of 2025 (9M 2025), about 2.86 lakh homes were sold, a 20 per cent Y-o-Y dip.

But market fundamentals remained strong.

Sumeet Chunkhare, chief marketing & communications officer, Sobha, said, “2025 has been a stable year, with the market clearly shifting towards end-user–driven demand, as dis­cerning homebuyers prioritise quality, trust and long-term value over speculative purchases.”

Average housing prices rose an estim­at­ed 6-9 per cent in 2025 across major cities, according to Anarock, with Delhi-NCR standing out due to premium-led supply.

Premiumisation continued with higher-ticket homes driving sales value even as volumes moderated.

Anarock expects sales value to grow 5–10 per cent by the end of 2025, from ~5.68 trillion in 2024.

“While residential volu­mes moderated, the under­ly­ing health of the sector remai­ned intact.

"The continued growth in sales value under­scores the struct­ural strength of the market, driven by prem­i­umi­s­ation and evolving buyer preferences,” said Sunil Pa­re­ek, executive director, Assetz.

Large, branded developers continued to outperform, supported by balance-sheet strength and execution credi­bi­lity.

Aakash Ohri, joint man­aging director and chief bus­i­ness officer, DLF Homes, no­t­ed resilient demand for qual­ity projects, citing ra­pid sell-outs of premi­um launches in Guru­gram and Mumbai.

In contrast, the af­fordable housing seg­ment struggled.

Accor­ding to Anarock, affordable housing’s share of overall sales fell from 38 per cent in 2019 to 18 per cent in 9M 2025, while supply dropped from 40 per cent to 13 per cent.

Commercial: A record year

Despite global uncertainties and IT layoffs, India’s office market extended its post-pandemic upswing in 2025.

Gross leasing is expected to cross 80 million square feet (msf), up 11.26 per cent Y-o-Y, among the highest levels rec­orded, according to Anshu­man Magazine, chairperson and CEO, India, South-East As­ia, Middle East & Africa, CBRE.

Leasing touched 60 msf in January–September, led by global capability centres (GCCs), technology, BFSI, engineering and manufacturing firms, and a rising share of domestic occupiers.

GCCs are likely to account for 35–40 per cent of total office demand in 2025 and over 55 per cent of large deals in 9M 2025.

According to Kshitij Bahri, senior general manager and head, commercial leasing, Oberoi Realty, GCCs were the biggest demand driver for offices in 2025.

Bahri is expecting their share in overall leasing to go above 40 per cent due to good real estate, cost arbitrage, and great talent availability.

Flexible workspaces added momentum.

“Flexible workspaces now contribute close to 20 per cent of the country’s all commercial leasing transactions,” said Utkarsh Kawatra, CEO and cofounder of myHQ by Anarock, underlining the segment’s evolution into a mainstream asset class.

The Reit market mirrored this strength. Citing regulatory clarity, strong leasing and rising distributions, Amit Shetty, CEO, Embassy Reit, said, “2025 has marked a pivotal year for India’s Reit sector.”

From January 1, 2026, Reits will be reclassified as equity instruments following Sebi’s decision, enabling wider mutual fund participation and index inclusion, according to Ramesh Nair, CEO and MD, Mindspace Reit.

Retail real estate saw an experience-led revival in 2025, with 2.2 msf of new supply and about 4.6 msf of absorption in 9M 2025, led by Hyderabad, Mumbai and Delhi-NCR.

Leasing is set to hit a record 9 msf in 2025, up from 7.8 msf in 2024, aided by new grade A supply, accord­ing to Cushman & Wakefield.

India’s industrial & logistics sector is expected to post its highest-ever annual absorption of 76.5 msf in 2025, up 18.6 per cent Y-o-Y, fuelled by manufacturing (29 per cent share, up from 22 per cent in 2024) and steady 3PL (28 per cent share) contributions, according to Savills India.

The commercial segment is set to enter 2026 with strong tail­winds. Sanjay Dutt, CEO and MD, Tata Realty & Infrastr­ucture, is anticipating a sustained momentum across urban and metro cities driven by demographic demand and growing investor interest in green-certified assets.

Investments: Capital flows hit new highs

Institutional investments are estimated at a record $10.4 billion in 2025, up 17 per cent Y-o-Y across 77 transactions, with equity accounting for 83 per cent of volumes, according to JLL.

Office (52 per cent) and residential (28 per cent) led inflows, while data centres, student housing and life sciences gained traction.

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