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'I am hoping for a good year'

January 04, 2005 17:36 IST
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Roy : What is your views for largcap steel co - TISCO and SAIL and Steel sector in general for 2005?
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. China has started exporting for the first time steel last month. That may bring prices down.


JesseLivermore : 
cash flow statements/balancesheets cant be had unless we have an active EDIFAR, like EDGAR in US.Till then, you'll have to rely on company websites where you'll find the annual reports. sebi.gov.in also has good info, through offer letters, red herring prospectus for the upcoming IPOs.
Ramesh S Damani : A lot of good information is now available on the Web.
sanujkadavil : SirWhats your call on FLEX group. Leaders in packaging. It's a 1250cr group diversified in to packaging, machineries, printing ink, food (mushroom) processing Etc.FLEX ENGINEERING LTD is looks like the flagship company of the group, beoz it jointly(flex securities subsidiary of flex engineering) holds majority stakes in all group companies like 16% in 780cr flex industries, 50% in 400cr print ink major FCL technologies and 45% in flex foods. And even flex engineering they are in packaging also in manufacturing of packaging machines. Even at current rate stock trade with a market cap of 50cr and a p/e of 4.
Ramesh S Damani : Let me take a look at it. I do not follow it.

jeet : SIR WHAT IS YOUR OPINION FOR MEGASOFT AND HINDUJA TMT. DO YOU OWN IT?
Ramesh S Damani : I have been trading in HTMT. It looks good in the current market.

coolrks : hello ramesh,First of all on behalf of parcipant i like to thank you for all the advice you provide.I am in australia and Done MBA and i am really impressed with your advice. Query is about Royal airways , did you follow the script and if you that what is the prosepect for comapny
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for the kind words. Royal Airways is part of now defunct Modiluft. They are trying to revive it.

sree : sir happy new year u r comments on cnbc has made zoom on the scrips which u discussed,gail and nucleus software.i purchased 250 nucleus.s but analysts are underweight on IT field ur comments please
Ramesh S Damani : As I have said previously, stocks don't go up because analyst recommend them.

stockcrazy : mcdowell seems to be consolidating.can you intimate us regarding future actions in the company.
Ramesh S Damani : I am looking at a merger of 3 cos.

channdani : hello sir, your fav GAIL AND NUCLEUS SOFTWARE SEEMS TO BE LONG TERM BET SLOW AND STEADY AND DOWN SIDE SEEMS TOBE LIMITED??/
Ramesh S Damani : They look good to me. Not cheap but should compensate for high growth. I own them.

ValueInvestor : GAIL is seeing a big upward movement .According to me GAIL is a value stock whose potential has not been unlocked much .What is ur opinion on it ?
Ramesh S Damani : I tend to agree. Gas will be an important fuel.

katakia :  besides being owned by giant tobacco parents what r the other triggers u see in godfey phillips & VST
Ramesh S Damani : Very cheap. VST has a market cap of 300 crs which is 1/3 of that of say an India Bulls. Need I say more? I own VST

Aparna : Is it a fact that the small & midcaps generally rise in the final stages of a bull market? However, in the current bull market, its the reverse?
Ramesh S Damani : No they rise in the early stages during the final stages it is the blue chips that rise.

jeet : SIR WHAT IS YOUR OPINION FOR MIDDAY? DO YOU OWN IT
Ramesh S Damani : Prospects look good. I trade in and out of it.

BrijNiralay : Damaniji: As an asset play, besides Godrej Industries, can we classify any other Company which has value remaining ? - Your value fan
Ramesh S Damani : Nothing new at this point

Harshad : Sir, what is the proceedure for hostile takeover of a company? Is there any web site or book you can guide me to? I'm asking, out of academic curiosity.
Ramesh S Damani : Look at SEBI regulations on takeover.

coolrks : Hello ramesh, from the last 2 years i am following you conversation and first time i am participating.I am happy you replied.I follow your logic persistance and patience pays....and it did paid. For 2005 you have gail and Nucles and i did invested where you see 2005 for capital market
Ramesh S Damani : I am hoping for a good year, but big picture investing is too difficult.

baracuda : jet airways ipo will be 1500crs and should be out in april they expect to wipe out their losses by then and make a net pt by2006 of 300crs,this info is in context to ubholdings
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, that would force attention to UB Holdings and I hear Bombay Burmah is also coming with an airline

stockscrazy : sir would you kindly explain why the banking sector is moving up soo much?
Ramesh S Damani : With GDP growth, credit card usage these banks will do well.

rkumar : Mr.Ramesh, you are talking about VST i.e. vst Tillers. pls. confirm it.
Ramesh S Damani : VST industries (tobacco)


kcs : sir what is the business of surya roshini , have u gone thru the prospectus of the company or just chartically
Ramesh S Damani : Steel pipes and lightning, I have looked at the balance sheet; it is cheap.However the chart looks good to me

bc : Macmillan - do you think the year end results will be good? q3 has been a disappointment
Ramesh S Damani : Generally Q4 and Q1 are the best.You can't look at the publishing business. ITES is where you need to watch closely.

cheri : You asked, Sugar stocks are the darling of the current trend. What is your pick under the present scenario. Other than the shortage of output in major sugar producing countries, are there any other factors that market is looking in favour of sugar stocks
Ramesh S Damani : I missed the sugar boom. I own EID Parry.

KRR : Godfrey Philips has started to move up... do you think its in anticipation of press note 18 restructuring and if that happnes do you see battle between Modis and Philip Morris? :-)
Ramesh S Damani : I think they will have to agree or lose there franchise (modis)

mavmav : mcdowell and UB merger..ur saying?
Ramesh S Damani : No, McDowell, Herbertsons and Triumph distillers

KRR : Godfrey: so if Modis agree... do you think shareholders would benefit by that move? should one hold on to it at the present levals from the valuation point of view? thanks :-)
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, it is too cheap on m-cap basis

Sharad : Sir, Congratulations to You, All, your picks were in lime light oday(i mean stock which wewe not moving since few months) like Elexi,Geomatric,Cranes,Ages log,Tata Tele,Nyveli,TVS Elec,CrestOpto,D-link,Swaraj..has done really well...All the Best to YOU & all of us too.
Ramesh S Damani : Over time good stocks tend to do well. You need some patience and convcition.

ValueInvestor : The Government gave monopoly status to GAIL for the National Gas Grid Project .Is there anyway they reverse their decisions ?
Ramesh S Damani : Try parliament

rksachan : Sir, What is the business of Encore sotware?Are you owning the stock?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes they make embedded softwareand designs for Simputer etc

ValueInvestor : Will the fight between the Ambani brothers have an impact on the stock market if things turn out nasty like a virtual split etc ?
Ramesh S Damani : It could particularly in the Reliance group of companies.
JOEGRANVILLE789 : RAMESH,if air deccan go for an ipo, will it be a trigger for ub holding as it will give an rough idea abt valuation of the kingfisher airlines????
Ramesh S Damani : What is the corelation between Deccan and Kingfisher?

ganeshvihar : Can I hold Tata Elexi? It was quoted Rs.174 today
Ramesh S Damani : I would.

katakia :  Would u be confident enough to classify UB holdings in the multi bagger category from these levels. how much of a possible downside do u see happening in the stock?
Ramesh S Damani : I can't. That would be decided by the market. But on some parts, it remains attrative

sashi : sir macmillan has a track record of giving bonus every 3 years for the last 12 yrs. the bonus is due now. do u think bonus will be one of the triggers to unlock valuation
Ramesh S Damani : They gave a bonus a few years back

ValueInvestor : The tsunami tradegy is a very terrible one but at the same time crores of money are now being spent on reconstruction works .So some sectors will benefit by that .Can u name which sectors /companies will benefit by the reconstruction works ?
Ramesh S Damani : Maybe cement co's, but I dont try and play those themes

anand : please dont treat this a personal portfolio question or individual query:1. logic: Water the flowers - My broker had invested in steel scrip in 2001 (uttam steel - then Rs 5) which at today's rate look like flowers - do we still continue to water them till they wither or u need to also cut them to decorate & enjoy? 3. steel scrips can we treat them like tata tea - long term hold??
Ramesh S Damani : That depends on your convcitionin the scripts.

JesseLivermore : Have you read Damn Right! (Behind the scenes with Charlie Munger)by Janet Lowe?
Ramesh S Damani : Many times.

KRR : Sir... I remember you saying that everyone is an expert in a rising market... the real test is protection of capital when correction sets in.... I agree fully... one more point i would like add here is the conviction... when YOU suggest something, for me and many like me, conviction is guaranteed.... and when the time ripes, the stock moves and we make money... I hope to learn enough to develop conviction my pics too... many thanks :-)
Ramesh S Damani : That is the key to develop your own conviction in your own business judgement, it can happen with time and success. That is my job to coach people to find their own multi-baggers.

Michelle1 : Will Swaraj Engine move forward this time?
Ramesh S Damani : You tell me

katakia : a big chunk of surya roshni"s revenues come from steel pipes. with the prices of steel peaking do u see it benefiting the company. do u see any restructring happening with a demerger of the lighting & pipes business
Ramesh S Damani : I have not yet met them.

Newbiessatstock : Sir your still holding SKF bearings,navneet publications?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes.

RameshDamaniFan : Sir, any suggestions in the construction industry? You had said its not a good idea to enter Nagarjuna Construction at these levels. The cement stocks are having a great time. So, there must be some demand for these cement stocks to go up like this. And, I guess the demand is generated by the construction industry.
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, but the stock has run up and doesn't offer a great margin of safety.

newkid : Sir , is there any chance of 200-300 point correction in low run
Ramesh S Damani : Sure it could happen.

raju : sir i am a student and was very much benefited from your advice.wat is your call on hindustan lever for long term ??/ your value fan
Ramesh S Damani : I would hold on.

mahesh : what do u think about balaji in long term do u think its a multibagger
Ramesh S Damani : I do. Co's that pay 16/- div on Rs 2 shares are very rare. People don't appreciate it.

murillo : Sir, I have decided to hold blue dart for the next 6 months (bought at 136), your views, thanx
Ramesh S Damani : Sounds okay.

JesseLivermore : Airlines is amongst the worst businesses alongwith textiles, according to the berkshire men. You think our value investors will still invest in Jet/Kingfisher whenever they happen?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, they will. I am sure of Jet IPO doing well.

KRR : Sir...allmost everyone is bullish about the market and predicting 7500... looks likt its a conceous number.... but i am little nerveous... I feel, at this point, one should look at stocks that could deliver returns of atleast protect capital even if there is a an end to the current bull run... atleast they would deliver at the next bull run that might come after 2-3 years.... what do you think? I have been converting some trading pics into Avaya GCL, Godfrey Philips, VST Ind. Gillate, Thomas Cook... etc... am i on the right path? :-)
Ramesh S Damani : Market pays enormous sums for growth. However, the stocks you mentioned are value stocks. Own some but not 100% in your portfolio

kkvg : sir you have mentioned engineering stocks also along with liquor . do u have any idea about TRF and Sanghvi . please yes or no sirrrr
Ramesh S Damani : Both are doing well. I own Sanghvi

sanujkadavll : SirEvery body is predicting insurance will become a huge industry in 2008. we have companies like Indian rayon, Sundaram, Kotak ,max, cholamandalam all have insurance subsidiaries. But these insurance companies are separate entities. Do you think the share holders of these companies are getting the shares of(rights or preferential ) insurance companies while they are going for IPO? I think in the coming years BPO ,and INSURANCE is going to be big business, companies like Indian rayon, Godrej industries, Kotak bank gives good investment opportunities in long term , because promoters are very clean and commited wealth creation and should demerge their their BPO,INSURANCE, etc businesses for the benefits of shareholders
Ramesh S Damani : Sanuj ask simpler questions ?

singhind : Sir u said U hold MID DAY, any info regarding SANDESH Ltd
Ramesh S Damani : Vlaue should be unlocked there too

anand : since i missed the UB(@435) party - are they still a good option or more of trading bet from hereon...??
Ramesh S Damani : For a beer co it remains cheap.

siniya : sir,is balmer lawrie is a good buy at 155-160 range. i think there is lots of unhidden value in this scrip. mode of business is also very good. what is your comment, is it fully priced or available cheap at cmp.please reply. thanks
Ramesh S Damani : I think it is valuable, I would buy it at these levels

sanujkadavll : SirWhats Your call on advanced Micronic devices , group company OPTO commands a huge market cap of 250cr, both of them have same business model and ideal products. Can one take a bet on advanced Micronic devices at these levels for long term………
Ramesh S Damani : You could but they are still struggling.

JesseLivermore : Are you associated in some way with Cdequisearch.They recently took a stake in balmer lawrie.???
Ramesh S Damani : No

simplify : Media sector (broadcasters) - my view is that you cannot predict which one will the rating game over a long period...It is better to own a basket(Zee + TV Today+ NDTV + TV18)...DO you agree ?
Ramesh S Damani : I would say Balalji and TV 18. NDTV and Zee as second tier bet.

anand : but with the tourism industry in asia being affected is BALMER still a good bet?
Ramesh S Damani : They cater to govt PSU mainly.

KRR : Thanks Sir... I know you dont comment on portfolios so I wont ask but I have 25% of it in Mallya companies at 1/3 of the current prices and rest in Balaji, Gail, Mukta, Nucleus, Tata Elexi, Tata infotch, tisco, swaraj, sundarm, encore, Balmer, macmillan, Navneet, hinduja tmt, etc... Please comment if that suits you ...many thanks :-)
Ramesh S Damani : it looks good to me


JesseLivermore : Try Book zone at VT/churchgate
Ramesh S Damani : Or amazon.com

subodh : Since u turned bullish on Khoday, I got a nice exit at 39, my buying price was 13 ...If UB is cheap at 435 then Mount Shivalik comes for free, do u agree ??? I also own Mount Shivalik and GM Breweries. If U never got a look at GM BRew, pl have a look now.
Ramesh S Damani : Great work

baracuda : we should all contribute something from the profit we make here to the tsunami victims doesnt matter which country they come from i have made a contrbution to OXFAM INDIA.
Ramesh S Damani : Charity is a private matter, but the spirit of your suggesttion is great. Oxfam does good work

ValueInvestor : Which investment book are u reading now ?
Ramesh S Damani : Nothing new

mahesh : my friend told that pantaloon will touch the 4 figure mark very soon whats ur call
Ramesh S Damani : The stock is on a roll

keshavharlalka : dear rameshji, a place in heaven will now surely be reserved for you... as a lot of people have started praying :-)
Ramesh S Damani : Funny Keshav

ValueInvestor : If a company pays regular dividend then can we accept it as a sign of share holder friendly
Ramesh S Damani : It does help. Thanks for joining. See you all next week. Bye

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