Same store sales, buyer growth lift jewellery majors in March quarter

Leading Indian jewellery retailers Titan Company and Kalyan Jewellers India have reported exceptional top-line growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, driven by robust same-store sales and a significant recovery in buyer demand, exceeding market expectations.

Robust same-store sales growth (SSSG) helped listed jewellery majors record better-than-expected top-line growth in the fourth quarter (January–March/Q4) of 2025–26 (FY26).

Along with higher average ticket sizes, an improvement in buyer growth is signalling a demand recovery.

While Kalyan Jewellers India rose 7.5 per cent to Rs 445, market leader Titan Company gained about 6.2 per cent to Rs 4,492 at the close on Wednesday.

Titan's Stellar Performance

Growth for Titan was led by the jewellery segment, which reported domestic revenue growth of 46 per cent, excluding bullion sales.

The outperformance was driven by Tanishq, Mia, Zoya, and beYon from House of Titan.

Most brokerages had expected the company to deliver growth in the 40-42 per cent range.

Secondary (retail) sales were up 52 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), led by Tanishq and Mia.

The growth in jewellery sales was driven by a 48 per cent jump in like-for-like (LFL) sales, as gold prices surged 80 per cent over the year-ago period.

In addition to higher average ticket sizes, growth was also supported by high single-digit buyer growth.

Buyer growth in Q4FY26 follows a flat performance in the preceding three quarters of FY26.

Within sub-segments, studded jewellery grew in the early thirties, while plain gold saw growth in the mid-thirties.

The company reported a near-trebling of coin sales Y-o-Y.

Among other segments, watch saw growth of 7 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by a 16 per cent increase in analogue watches.

However, this was partly offset by a 53 per cent decline in the smartwatch category.

Premiumisation trends, according to the company, contributed to healthy increases in ticket sizes during the quarter.

Brokerage Views and Outlook

Commenting on Titan’s performance, Goldman Sachs Research said domestic jewellery consumer growth was strong at 52 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by sharp LFL acceleration.

The improvement in buyer growth to high single digits indicates a recovery in demand, it added.

The brokerage has maintained a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 5,000.

Higher gold prices may weigh on the company’s gross margins in Q4.

Analysts at Antique Stock Broking, led by Abhijeet Kundu, however, said healthy growth in studded jewellery in the early thirties, supported by robust buyer expansion, could partially offset the impact on margins.

Incremental improvement in watch profitability could ease some of the margin pain, they added.

Antique estimates an operating profit margin expansion of 90 basis points (bps) for domestic jewellery over the next three years, reaching 10.6 per cent by 2027–28, driven by an improving product mix and operational efficiencies.

The brokerage has a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 5,143 per share.

It expects Titan’s medium- to long-term performance to be driven by market-share gains in the jewellery business, supported by brand strength, execution, and expansion of the store network.

Kalyan Jewellers' Strong Showing

Kalyan Jewellers also reported robust revenue growth of 64 per cent Y-o-Y on a consolidated basis, comfortably beating brokerage estimates.

The domestic business reported growth of 65 per cent Y-o-Y, led by strong SSSG growth (45 per cent) across key markets.

Despite volatile gold prices, both wedding and discretionary demand remained strong during the quarter.

Given the strong performance in India, Motilal Oswal Research has maintained its ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 550.

JM Financial Research, which also maintains a ‘buy’ rating, expects profit before tax growth of 86 per cent on a standalone basis in Q4, compared to its earlier estimate of 52 per cent.

The brokerage expects margins at the profit-before-tax level to expand by 60 bps Y-o-Y to 5.2 per cent.