India's two-wheeler market is undergoing a significant structural shift, with electric scooters poised to overtake motorcycles in volume by 2037, driven by rapid urbanisation, increasing female workforce participation, and the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles.
Key Points
- Scooters are projected to overtake motorcycles in India's two-wheeler market after FY37, driven by electrification and changing consumer preferences.
- Electric two-wheelers are the fastest-growing segment, with volumes expected to rise at a compound annual rate of 34 per cent between FY25 and FY30.
- Electric scooters are set to dominate the EV transition, with their penetration reaching nearly 38 per cent by FY30 and over 80 per cent by FY40.
- Factors like rapid urbanisation, rising women's workforce participation, and convenience-led mobility are contributing to the shift towards scooters.
- Electric motorcycles are expected to lag, with only 5 per cent penetration by FY30 due to concerns over range and upfront costs.
India’s two-wheeler market is approaching a structural inflection point, with scooters on course to overtake motorcycles in volume terms over the next decade as electrification accelerates and reshapes consumer preferences, according to a report by Equirus Securities.
According to the brokerage, scooter volumes will grow at roughly 9 per cent annually between FY25 and FY30, outpacing motorcycles, which are expected to expand at about 4 per cent over the same period.
This widening gap is projected to culminate in scooters surpassing motorcycles after FY37, marking a decisive shift in the composition of the world’s largest two-wheeler market.
Drivers of the Shift
The transition reflects a combination of socio-economic changes: Rapid urbanisation, rising participation of women in the workforce, and a tilt towards convenience-led mobility.
Electrification, however, remains the central driver, and scooters hold a structural edge here.
Electric two-wheelers are set to be the fastest-growing segment, with volumes expected to rise at a compound annual rate of around 34 per cent between FY25 and FY30.
Penetration, currently in the low single digits, is projected to climb to about 19 per cent by FY30 and over 50 per cent by FY40.
Electric Scooter Dominance
Within this shift, electric scooters dominate.
Their penetration is expected to reach nearly 38 per cent by FY30 and surge beyond 80 per cent by FY40, supported by strong product-market fit for urban commuting, faster innovation cycles, and more favourable total cost of ownership.
Electric motorcycles are likely to lag, with penetration estimated at just 5 per cent by FY30 amid persistent concerns over range and upfront costs.
“The scooter category has grown faster than others in the past two years.
"We do think that the share of scooters, both in internal combustion engine and electric, will continue to grow,” Sudarshan Venu, chairman and managing director of TVS Motor Company, said in August last year.
The result is an increasingly skewed electrification curve, with scooters emerging as the primary vehicle of the EV transition and consolidating their share of the overall two-wheeler mix.
In the near term, however, growth will be driven less by structural change than by cyclical recovery.
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