A populist Budget providing for a massive farm loan waiver, income tax sops across the board and no no additional burden on the corporate sector on Friday prompted widespread speculation that the Lok Sabha polls may be held before the end of the year, probably by October or November.
Apparently the fast-tracking of the implementation of the debt waiver and relief scheme by June 2008 led to political parties, including those on the side of the government, and the industry predicting that elections are not not far away.
Short of announcing the date for elections, everything else has been announced, said leader of the Communist Party of India Parliamentary Party in Lok Sabha Gurudas Dasgupta, whose party supports the government.
Dubbing the Budget as an "election manifesto", Bharatiya Janata Party vice president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said, "It is a clear signal that elections are being held early. The nature of the Budget is virutual declaration of mid-term elections."
Sharing this view, noted industrialist and Rajya Sabha member Rahul Bajaj said the Budget has clear indicators for early elections.
In the central hall of Parliament, Congress MPs were discussing the possibility of early polls and joking with colleagues of other parties to get ready for the battle.
However, CPI MP D Raja does not feel it points to early elections, though he concedes that the Budget does have a short-term perspective on several issues.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram, the hero of day, dismissed all talk of elections saying in India elections take place every year and the Budgets can be described as election budgets.
"If you have nothing else to say about the Budget, then you can call it election-Budget," he said in a tone tinged with sarcasm at the customary post-budget briefing.
Apart from the Budget, analysts see the possibility of government going ahead with the nuclear deal with the US, notwithstanding the serious opposition from the Left parties, without whose support it may not be able to survive, being a factor in hastening early polls.
The continuing negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency on getting an India-specific safeguards for implementation of the nuclear deal with the US and the extension given to the ambassador in Washington, despite his reluctance to serve beyond March, are seen as pointers in this direction.
Even before the Budget there had been speculation in political circles whether the government was keen on the nuclear deal that could invite withdrawal of support by the Left parties.
In that case, whenever that happens there is a cushion of at least about six months available to the government before elections are held that could be used by the ruling coalition to get its schemes implemented ahead of possible elections, say analysts.
President Pratibha Patil, reflecting the government view, said in her address to Parliament that she was hopeful that the Indo-US civil nuclear deal will "become possible".
"It is our hope that civil nuclear cooperation with the USA and other friendly countries will become possible," she had said.
A group of US Senators, who visited India recently also reinforced the widely-held view that time was running out for the deal and that the government has to take a final decision sooner than later.
