'What the Americans want is to destabilise Iran. For destabilising Iran, you need access.
'One access is through Iraq. The other access is through Pakistan.'
Pakistan's strategic geography has once again catapulted India's inimical neighbour into the spotlight of American foreign policy calculations.
In an interview with Prasanna D Zore/Rediff, Avinash Mohananey, the retired Intelligence Bureau officer who spent a considerable time in Pakistan on security assignments, dissects the complex geopolitical dynamics that have made Pakistan army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir a favoured interlocutor for US President Donald Trump.
From Iran's nuclear programme to Afghanistan's lithium reserves, Pakistan's unique positioning at the crossroads of America's most pressing strategic concerns has transformed it from a neglected ally into an indispensable partner.
Mr. Mohananey reveals how Pakistan's borders with Iran, Afghanistan and China create unprecedented opportunities for American intelligence operations and economic interests.
As Trump explores oil exploration deals and deepens military cooperation with Islamabad, the implications extend far beyond bilateral relations, potentially reshaping the entire South Asian strategic landscape and challenging India's assumptions about its own relationship with Washington.
What makes Pakistan General Asim Munir a go-to man for US President Donald Trump, especially when the US didn't even condemn Pakistan for the Pahalgam terrorist attack?
In India, we forget the geographical location of Pakistan and the strategic edge that it gives because of its geography. Apart from India, which is of course in a way a US ally, Pakistan touches three important countries of varying concerns for the US.
If we begin with the western side (of Pakistan), it is Iran. America and Israel have an inimical relationship with Iran. Iran is one place where America fought a war. They also bombed Iran recently, as earlier last month.
What the Americans want is to destabilise Iran. For destabilising Iran, you need access. It can't be aerial.
If you recall, there was talk of changing the government in Iran or regime change (during the Israel-Iran conflict). The Israelis and Americans were talking about regime change. They said we don't have any issue with Iran, but we have an issue with the regime.
They thought they could do it the way they did in 1953, replacing Mossadegh with the Shah (The replacement of then Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh with Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1953 involved a US-UK backed coup). For that, they need access to Iran.
One access is through the Iraq side. The other access is through the Pakistan side, because there is an ongoing separatist movement going on in Iran in the Sistan-Balochistan province (the only Iranian province which shares its borders with both Pakistan and Afghanistan), which touches the Balochistan of Pakistan.
How can they infiltrate their CIA and Mossad agents to destabilise the regime there, to keep tabs on its nuclear programme? They need ground penetration beyond aerial surveillance.
Can you elaborate on how Pakistan facilitates American operations against Iran?
If you recall, there has been escalation in the activities of Jaish al-Adl, a terrorist organisation which is a Sunni organisation (operating from Iran and getting safe haven by Pakistan).
In January last year, on January 16, Iran fired ballistic missiles on targets in Pakistan. Then Pakistan retaliated two days later. Iran was targeting Jaish al-Adl or at least sending a message to Pakistan that we will not tolerate this Jaish al-Adl business.
Jaish al-Adl can only be supported if it has to be made a potent organisation through the supply of weapons and finances by some external power. It has to be CIA and Mossad only.
If they have to operate, then obviously they need a land border from where weapons can go and their agents can penetrate. That is why Pakistan becomes an important country for America on the Iranian issue.
There is one possibility -- though it's not clear -- that during the Asim Munir and Trump meeting, probably the Americans wanted land access to Iran because this is how the Pakistanis were used during the Afghan wars, targeting the Russians.
There is an old history of Pakistan doing the strategic dirty work of America.
What about Afghanistan and China -- how do they factor into this Pakistan-US equation?
After Iran, the second country is Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, the issue that affects America is, number one, the presence of China and the possibility of China taking minerals from there, particularly lithium. There are large reserves of lithium in Afghanistan.
If they want to create trouble for China, they need the Pakistan border. Pakistan has about a 1,600 kilometre long border with Afghanistan.
Number two is the presence of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) that affects the security of America.
If you recall, Trump in his first address to Congress (to the United States Congress in his second term) talked about one Sharifullah who was sent from Pakistan. He was an Afghan national believed to be the mastermind of the Abbey Gate bombing in August 2021 (On August 26, 2021, during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, a suicide bomber from the ISIS-K carried out an attack at Abbey Gate, the main entrance to the Hamid Karzai international airport in Kabul killing 13 US soldiers and 170 Afghans.) when the Americans were departing.
The crucial thing (that worries the US) is Pakistan's growing proximity with China. China has become the number one economic and strategic competitor of America at the global level.
America would like to gradually wean away Pakistan from the Chinese strategic and economic embrace.
Post the Afghanistan conflict, Pakistan was by and large ignored by the Americans. But now since the China issue has become dominant, this (friendship with Pakistan and Munir) becomes important.
How does the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) concern the Americans?
In Pakistan, they have issues of minerals, Chinese interests, Chinese economy -- everything.
CPEC is the flagship project of BRI (the Belt and Road Initiative). If the CPEC doesn't fail, then BRI becomes strong and more countries will be attracted to China. They have to ensure that CPEC doesn't succeed.
They want the critical minerals, particularly lithium, which has contiguous reserves in Balochistan also, and other critical minerals which China may use for extraction and take on the CPEC to China.
Right now there is the Sandak project from where China is taking ore in liquid form through the Karakoram Highway to Xinjiang province.
What's the significance of the oil exploration talks between Trump and Pakistan?
The issue of oil exploration is too premature for any actual oil exploration. But the possibility is that they (the US) may send some teams there. They may start extracting critical minerals in Balochistan by entering into contracts.
Along with the American companies will come the CIA and Mossad operators who can use the Pakistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan-Iran borders for their activities.
- Part 2 of the Interview: 'Pakistan Can't Afford To Annoy America'
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