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Rediff.com  » Business » Volatile markets confusing you? Here's help!

Volatile markets confusing you? Here's help!

January 29, 2009 09:03 IST

Though the Sensex traded in the positive on Wednesday, it is a lacklustre market in comparison with the broad move seen on Tuesday.

Driven by global cues, Indian markets too have been in the green despite Tueday's disappointment, when the Reserve Bank of India kept the key interest rates unchanged.

But investors continue to remain a confused lot. What strategy should you adopt? Which stocks to buy, sell and hold?

Stock market expert Pranav Sanghavi, director, Jitendra Harjivandas Securities (P) Ltd, offered some valuable tips during a chat on Wednesday. Here is the transcript:

PRANAV SANGHAVI says, 
Good afternoon all and welcome to the chat. Let's begin.


rohit0227 asked, what is the meaning of rsi and how it calculate
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers,  at 2009-01-28 16:03:39Its a techncal term meaning Relative Strngth Index. As I am not a tchnical analyst I won't be able to help you much on the same sorry.
vijay asked, by when reality stoks move up
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, It will be a long time before the realty stocks move up substantilly. You may see short term news based rallies but till the overall economic and real estate sectors outlook improves, the stocks should remain range bound at best.
anandjay asked, your opinion on DCW
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, DCW is a midsized player in the Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, PVC markets. It is a regional player and has been a steady performer. The company is planning a rights issue and if the price they fix is substantially lower than what it's quoting at which is around Rs. 10 then it could prove to be beneficial to investors. One could look at the stock wth a 1 to 2 year outlook.
Deepak asked, What is the scope of L&T for 2 to 3 years
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, L&T stock has pummelled due to its increased interest in the tainted Satyam as a company. I think this wouldve been a good opportunity to take smaller positions in L&T with a long term outlook.
dipesh asked, hi pranav.. tell me which are best valued stock at the current stage...for horizon of 3 yrs also plz about the good sectors for the same period
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, There are lot of stocks hich are trading below a PE of 5. Some are also trading at a discount to their book. One has to study and find such stocks which are profit making an have a good track record. You could look at stocks like Voltas, IDFC, Sesa Goa which come to mind mmediately. But there are tons of ther such stocks. One has to pick up a copy of Cpaital Markets and do the research.
manovatth asked, will icici touch rs.450 in the near future?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, The banks have performed decently over the last two trading sessions especilly HDFC and ICICI. If this bear market rally should continue further there is a chance that you may see that level soon.
Farook asked, Sir, I am purchase in L&T, SBI ,IDFC,NTPC,Sesa goa, India bulls, India hotels,Voltas shall I wait or sell?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I like all the stocks that you have mentioned and surely would hold on to them. Instead of India bulls securities I would rather look at Edelweis which has given decent results considering he market turmoil.
Abhishek asked, I have lost the physical copy of Ashina Housing Limited. What is the process to get it once again from copmany?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You would need to write to the registrar of the said company. They will send to you the complete set of documents that would be required to issue duplicate certificates. You would need to give an Indemnity Bond amongst other things.
Deepak asked, What is the scope of RELCAPITAL and PUNJ LLOYED FOR 2 TO 3 YEARS
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could look at REl Cap with a 3 year outlook surely. Punj Lloyd has given disappointing results. So I woud wait for a few quarters to see how the company performs in this tough economic scenario.
vikas asked, hi pranav what is the future of satyam comp. should i hold or sale it
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, It depends when and what rate have you bought the stock. L&T is trying its best to see that the company get revived or gets merged with its Tech subidiary so they do not make a massive loss on it's investment in Satyam. If that does not come through then the current board is also planning a back up plan to revive the company. But till all the details regarding the cash and cusomer positions is not known I would not bet on the stock.
GopiKiran asked, Hi,At what price shall I buy BHEL,L&T,RIL and Jindal steel and Power
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, As I have been saying I would wait for a correction before I get into the stock. We are currently on the upper end of a bear market rally and one should not get carried away and jump in to buy. The markets may go up by a bit but then it could come crashing down and result in losses for the investor.
gaurav asked, wt abt unitech? i have 3000 shares at rate of 40/-
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, It has been hovering around the Rs. 25 to 45 range for some time. I think it will tak a long time for it to recover. The real estate sector is in limbo and Unitech is surely in a cash crunch as they were very highly leveraged as acknowledged by the management themselves. The company is taking various steps to raise cash and liquidity.
vikas asked, hi pranav what is ur opinion on DLF & reliance power. hold or sale it
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I am pretty confident that DLF should tide trough the rough patch that the Realty players are facing. In terms of Rel Power I would rather have an NTPC, Tata Power instead in my portflio.
az asked, will market touch 7000?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Whether markets will touch 12,000 and then go down to 7,000 or go to 7,000 first and then rebound is anybody's guess. But I do feel and have been saying it over the last few chats that we could retest the October lows anytime over the next couple of months.
ashish asked, Hi Pranav Whats the future for Rolta for next 2 -3 months. I have 300 shares @ Rs. 77. Plz advice
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, i think Rolta like many of its mid sized peers have a tough year ahead of them.
vikas asked, hi pranav which sector stock shold be buy in 2009
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think one could look at Banks, Cement, after a few quarters when the stocks hit lows probably the quality frontline realty stocks albiet with a long term outlook.
vishal_vyas81@rediffmail.com asked, hi pranav... what is the derivative strategy for nifty you will recommend as of now ??
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Nifty has been ranging from 2700 levels and 2900 levels so one could write puts of around 2700 and write calls of 2900 with strict stop losses. The markets have tested the 2700 level on nifty thrice already. But when it does break it could go all the way down to Ocober levels. So one should be very careful with their stop loses.
dINESH_G asked, What's your say about Pfizer.Is it worth investing or should I wait for sometime more
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think you could wait for an opportune moment to get into the stock. There are good chances the stock will move downwards in tandem with the markets when they do correct as this bear market rally cannot move upwards continuously.
AMA asked, are L&T,IDFC,OPTOCIRCUITS,POWERGRID worth buying? i am looking at a long term view (4-5 yrs)
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would surely look at L&T, IDFC and Powergrid with that time frame.
sharma asked, hi pranav, shall i invest in satyam at this level
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, If it is purely for punting I would punt on the stock when it is lower than Rs. 20 and not right now when it is at 50's. This rally could be because of short covering on the Futures side as tomorrow would be it's last day o the futures market. On the other hand if some news breaks out about L&T taking over the management there could be a knee jerk upward reaction. Either ways it would prove to be a risky bet a it can move either ways depending on news.
tv_ece asked, is it the right t ime buy glenmark????
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think it has been falling since the results announcement. I would let it fall further before taking a fresh look at the stock. They have given negative guidance also for the stock for the coming year.
j asked, I want to buy Suzlon, Unitech, GVK power & IBSeq, pl guide whether to buy or not, If yes at what levels
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could look at Unitech and Suzlon with a 2 year outlook.
AJAY asked, are Aban Offshore, PTC, DLF, Suzlon, IVRCl, Nagarjune can be hold
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Unless you are a short term trader and wish to book profits I would surely not sell Aban, DLf, Suzlon etc. I would hold on.
sharad asked, Hi pranav..I have 150 shares of BIlcare@500..I also want to buy Monsanto India. Investment horizon long term 5-7 years..plz suggest
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could look at Monsanto which is a niche player in the agri chemicals market.
NAWAL asked, hI PRANAV I WANT TO INVEST IN Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren & VOLTAS PLEASE SUGGEST ME THE LEVELS.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would look at Voltas on every dip in smll parts with a 1 to 2 year outlook.
abhi12184 asked, what is your view about PNB and Canara bank
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I like the banks especially with the interest rates looking to drop over the next few quarters.
RPM asked, TELL ME ABOUT HINDALCO TO BUY OR NOT
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would surely accumalate Hindalco on every major dip with a long term outlook.
RPM asked, IN IT ROLTA OR INFOSYS BEST BUY ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Surely Infosys is a better stock to look at from the IT segment.
PRABHAT asked, WHAT TO FOR SUN PHARMA SHARE TO SELL/HOLD/BUY
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would hold on.
sanjay.prithiani asked, Hello Pranav. I am holding 1500 shares of Guj nre coke bought @ 30.50. What is ur suggestion. Should i hold or exit?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I thnk you could hold the stock with a 6 to 12 month outlook.
kesh asked, dear Pranab , kindly advise about future of JP associates & punj lyod
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would not look at either of the stocks immediately. Punj Lloyd could be looked at in a few quarters if their performance improves.
RPM asked, HOW IS TATA MOTORE IN LONG TERM
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, In the short term they will feel the load of the foreign acquisition and the weaker outlook in the local commercial and consumer vehicles market.
vishal asked,  Pranav Sir plz ur view on SCI and varun shipping
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, One is the largest shipping company in the public sector ther other is a smaller player in the private sector. The shipping sector is cyclical by nature and I think it has seen its volumes and prices peak some time last year. We may see lower volume movement and freight rates in the coming quarters. So I would wait for an appropriate time to get into these stocks.
Firstsource asked, Gr8tngs Pranav: Kindly advise on FIRSTSOURCE....I have 10000 shares purchased at 20/- I have a timeline of 3years. Kindly advise.Thank you
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Firstsource is an ICICI group company and is one of the largest outsourcing player in the country. I would look to average at current levels and then hold the stock with a 2 year outlook. Over that time frame you should see decent returns.
Sushant asked, H r u ? sushant here i m having 13 shares of Lakshmi Machine & 18 shares of BBL so should i hold it or avg. it or sell it. Plz suggest me, waiting for u r answer
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, LMW could surely be held on as their equity is very low and decent performer over the past few years.
vikram2878 asked, pyramid saimira can we buy at 22 rs.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would rather look at DLF, Unitech or even Piramal groups real estate arm.
mush asked, is 30-31 a gud level to buy unitch fr a period f around 1 month
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I don't know about 1 month but you could look at it with a 1 year outlook between the 25 to 30 levels.
CHETHAN asked, HI PRANAV I HAVE RNRL BOUGHT AT 50 TOTALLY 200 SHARES WHAT SHOULD I DO
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Till there is a distinct outcome of it's legal battle with RIL not much could happen to the stock. So you will have to wait for the results.
hanif asked, i have bought ntpc shares lat year at Rs.261/- 288 numbers, pls suggest to sell or hold and also time frame and price for hold
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, The stock has been rising handsomely over the past few trading sessions. I would surely hold on to the stock with a long term outlook.
PRANAV SANGHAVI says, Well it's time for me to leave. Bye for now.