Bulls might be on the rampage on Dalal Street but lofty valuations of the Indian equities present a reason for concern and the markets could perhaps witness up to 10 per cent correction, according to analysts. Benchmark indices have been on a record-breaking rally lately and August witnessed the stock market reaching many new highs. The BSE benchmark soared over 9 per cent last month.
IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 3 per cent, followed by Dr Reddy's, NTPC, Maruti, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel and HDFC. NSE Nifty declined 76.15 points to 15,691.40.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies reached an all-time high of Rs 261.73 lakh crore on Thursday, helped by a massive rally in the equities where the benchmark Sensex zoomed 958 points to end at a fresh lifetime peak. The 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 958.03 points or 1.63 per cent to settle at its new closing peak of 59,885.36. During the day, it gained 1,029.92 points to touch an intra-day record high of 59,957.25.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
Infosys was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 2 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra and NTPC. On the other hand, Maruti, Sun Pharma, HUL and ITC were among the laggards. Nifty rose 122.15 points to 17,343.55.
The number of draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) filed with the markets regulator - Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - jumped nearly fivefold to 145 in 2021-22 (FY22), compared with just 30 in the preceding financial year (2020-21, or FY21). This was on account of companies rushing to take advantage of a favourable market sentiment towards initial public offerings (IPOs), triggered by an influx of new investors, surge in the secondary market, and encouraging performance of newly listed stocks. In fact, DRHPs filed in FY22 was 4x the previous 10-year average and the highest since 2007-08, according to primary market tracker PRIME Database.
'It will be best for investors to have a systematic investment plan in mid-cap and small-cap funds with a three-/five-year horizon.'
Experts say companies wanting to launch IPOs will have to scale back their expectations given the fall in valuations.
Just because India has outperformed the US markets in a short recent period, it does not mean that this is based on fundamental reasons that are here to stay, points out Debashis Basu.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and ongoing quarterly earnings are some of the major factors that will drive the stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales numbers and the LIC IPO will also remain in focus, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). "The market is likely to kick off this week on a sombre note after a sharp fall in the US market then the focus will shift to the outcome of the US FOMC meeting, which is crucial amid record inflation and growth worries.
'The minimum holding period for equities should be three years.' 'Try goal-based investing.' 'Link your equity portfolios to specific goals such as retirement, purchase of a house or car...'
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Investors continue to back-up equity mutual funds in June as such schemes attracted a net inflow of Rs 15,498 crore on strong flows from systematic investment plans despite volatility in the stock market and relentless selling by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). This also marked the 16th straight month of positive inflow in equity schemes. Inflows into equity mutual funds in June was lower compared to the net inflow of Rs 18,529 crore seen in May, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed on Friday.
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 8 lakh crore in five days of market plunge. The BSE benchmark has lost 2,062.99 points or 4 per cent in five trading sessions. On Thursday, the 30-share BSE benchmark tanked 585.10 points or 1.17 per cent to close at 49,216.52. Following the bearish trend, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies declined by Rs 804,216.71 crore to Rs 2,01,22,436.75 crore in five days.
'At current valuations, we believe large-caps offer better downside support.' 'Hence, we are suggesting a small tilt towards them.'
HCL Tech was the top loser in the Sensex pack, skidding over 4 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra Dr Reddy's, Wipro, TCS, Titan and Infosys. NSE Nifty plunged 167.80 points to 17,110.15.
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
At interactions last week with senior officials from the Reserve Bank of India, select banks gave feedback on two key bond market concerns, namely, recent volatility in the rupee-dollar exchange rate and heavy losses incurred on floating rate government bonds due to a demand-supply mismatch, sources told Business Standard. The discussions were held ahead of the RBI's next monetary policy statement, scheduled on August 5. Indian banks are large holders of government securities because of a regulatory mandate to set aside a certain percentage of deposits in sovereign bonds.
And there have been months when flows have exceeded $3 billion.
Equities went into a tailspin on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a mid-cycle rate hike in a bid to tame soaring inflation.
Hero MotoCorp was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting 4.46 per cent. IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Vedanta, SBI, M&M, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, HDFC and HDFC Bank too rose up to 3.63 per cent.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
Equity markets will look for directions from global trends, ongoing quarterly earnings and investment patterns of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in a holiday-shortened week ahead and may encounter volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry, according to analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of 'Republic Day'. "This week is a holiday-shortened one and it's going to be critical due to the list of events and data that are lined up.
Yes Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 10.94 per cent. Other gainers included Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, L&T, ICICI Bank, Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors and ONGC, rallying up to 4.01 per cent.
This is the first hike in about a decade, signaling a recovery.
Brokers said investor sentiment turned choppy on selling by foreign institutional investors ahead of the September month derivatives expiry on Thursday.
'I don't see any major setback for the Indian markets post the US Fed event.'
Investments by private equity and venture capital funds doubled to a record high of $9.5 billion in July mainly driven by higher investor interest in the e-commerce sector, a report said on Monday. Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments stood at $4.1 billion in the year-ago period. The activity was higher by 77 per cent when compared to June's $5.4 billion, the report on monthly PE/VC investment activity by industry lobby IVCA and consultancy firm EY said.
Battling a sharp surge in inflation, the Reserve Bank is all for a smooth monetary policy response and the desire to have smaller hikes led it to tighten the policy in an off-schedule meet, a source said on Thursday. Inflation has been massively impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and will in due course also reflect the dent caused by Indonesia banning palm oil exports, the source aware of central bank thinking said, indicating that there was no other option but to respond. "The idea is to have a smooth policy response, not to put in large cold turkey responses," the source said, making it clear that the preference is for smaller magnitude responses and not larger ones.
The 50-share NSE Nifty closed lower by 19.25 points, or 0.19 per cent at 10,121.90
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
'Markets are factoring in a good show by India Inc in Q2.'
Fears that FIIs would curtail their investments in emerging markets following the Fed's tapering plan hurt sentiment.
Titan was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding 1.39 per cent, followed by HDFC, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Asian Paints, SBI, M&M, TCS, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were among the winners, spurting as much as 3.25 per cent.
Analysts caution against volatility and recommend buying stocks of companies that are on strong fundamental footing that have been beaten down badly in the recent carnage.
Tech Mahindra was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 2 per cent, followed by Bharti Airtel, Maruti, ICICI Bank, SBI, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints and Reliance Industries.
The 30-share Sensex ended 684 points higher at 20,647 and the 50-share Nifty added 216 points at 6,116 levels.
Nestle India, HCL Tech, M&M, HDFC Bank, Maruti and Tech Mahindra were also among the losers. NSE Nifty tumbled 97.70 points to 11,202.85.
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