With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
Benchmark indices bounced back on Wednesday after a two-day decline, with the Sensex and Nifty climbing nearly 1 per cent each, tracking a positive trend in European markets. Buying in IT and bank stocks also supported the recovery in equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 547.83 points or 0.99 per cent to settle at 55,816.32.
The rout in Adani Group stocks after US-based short seller Hindenburg Research released a report on January 24 has sparked a rebound in trading activity this month. The average daily trading volume (ADTV) for the cash segment (both NSE and BSE combined) so far in February stands at Rs 59,346 crore, and is around 15 per cent more than the previous month's tally of Rs 51,844 crore, which was the lowest in six months. The ADTV for the futures and options (F&O) segment rose to a record Rs 204 trillion (notional turnover) against Rs 202 trillion in January.
Such a directive to 'temporarily cease operations' comes after the US Federal Aviation Authority conducted an investigation of an in-flight Boeing 787 battery incident in Japan on Wednesday, which posed a question on a potential battery fire risk in the 787.
With the international markets facing uncertainty after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western nations retaliated with sanctions, Indian companies are putting their international fundraising plans on hold as they wait for the markets to recover. Bankers said apart from the geopolitical crisis, international rates are hardening in anticipation of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve to control rising prices in the US. The Ukraine situation has implications for the market. In such a situation, international investors try to shift to safe haven assets by exiting from emerging markets.
'Hope they don't tinker around with capital gains tax in any way.'
The re-opening of the Chinese economy, as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy, could help stabilise commodity prices, according to some of the country's top metal companies. They view this as a positive for demand, at a time when markets such as the US and Europe have been largely weighed down by slowdown concern now. "Most of us in the metals business are hoping the Chinese economy picks up because half of any metal demand, including demand for aluminium, comes from China.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
Equity benchmark BSE Sensex closed at an all-time high of 62,272.68 on Thursday, tracking a firm trend in global markets after the US Fed minutes indicated a slower pace of rate increase that bolstered investors' sentiment. Extending its rally to the third straight day, the 30-share BSE benchmark rallied 762.10 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 62,272.68, its record closing peak. During the day, it jumped 901.75 points or 1.46 per cent to its lifetime high of 62,412.33.he broader NSE Nifty gained 216.85 points or 1.19 per cent to end at 18,484.10.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
As regards India, FIIs have pumped in over Rs 34,400 crore in the Indian stocks in calendar year 2021.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said in the wake of appreciating US dollar, the movement of rupee has remained least disruptive as compared to its peers, and the size of foreign exchange reserve is comfortable. On a financial year basis (from April to October 2022), the rupee has appreciated by 3.2 per cent in real terms, even as several major currencies have depreciated, he said while announcing the latest set of bi-monthly monetary policy. "The story of the rupee has been one of India's resilience and stability," the Governor said while pointing out that the appreciation of the US dollar this year, which precipitated large-scale depreciation of all major global currencies including the Indian rupee, has drawn wide attention.
Continuing their selling spree for the sixth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 41,000 crore from the Indian equity market in March on anticipation of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and deteriorating geopolitical environment amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Further, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are expected to remain volatile in the near term given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices and inflation, experts said. According to data available with the depositories, FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 41,123 crore in the equity market last month.
The value of foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) holdings in domestic equities reached $654 billion in three months ended December 2021, a drop of nearly 2 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of a massive sell-off by foreign investors and a correction in the Indian equity markets, especially in the large and mid-cap sectors. "At the end of the quarter ended December 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities fell to $654 billion, which was lower than $667 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a fall of around 2 per cent," the report noted.
'Market feels this Budget will promote all-round growth and that is what is giving it confidence.'
Indian equity markets registered their highest single-day percentage gains since early October.
'Over the next two quarters, markets will be guided by observing the earnings resilience of corporates during the second lockdown, progress of the monsoon and the damage, if any, to rural spending power due to the second wave.'
The US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent, only the second increase in a decade.
The US Federal Reserve has announced to maintain its bond purchase tapering programme.
RBI will not follow US Federal Reserve's cue of cutting rates, as Indian conditions differ greatly from US.
All evidence suggests that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon.
The trend was visible in the early trade on Thursday as investors indulged in trimming their bets after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting indicated a possible rate hike this year.
Investors have turned cautious ahead of the policy meetings of central banks in Japan and the US
Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Monday warned members against referring to anyone's caste and religion in the House after a Congress MP alleged that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman made certain remarks about his proficiency in Hindi because he belonged to a lower caste.
Improvements in the labour market has triggered this sentiment.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at over 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday, while observing that the growth rate should sustain next year too provided the forthcoming Budget does not have any negative surprises. Panagariya further said recessionary fears have been around for a while but so far neither the US nor the EU has gone into recession. "From the viewpoint of India, in terms of headwinds originating abroad, the worst is probably behind us," he told PTI.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and ongoing quarterly earnings are some of the major factors that will drive the stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales numbers and the LIC IPO will also remain in focus, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). "The market is likely to kick off this week on a sombre note after a sharp fall in the US market then the focus will shift to the outcome of the US FOMC meeting, which is crucial amid record inflation and growth worries.
Trading in the domestic stock market would be influenced by trends in the global equities, macroeconomic data and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Markets may face volatile trends on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday.
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
The rupee on Wednesday declined by 16 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.60 against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows and a stronger greenback in overseas markets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.57 and later hit the day's low of 77.61 as the dollar rebounded in global markets following hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices also surged over 1 per cent, which weighed on the rupee.
The US Federal Reserve has earned a whopping $14 billion profit on loan programmes made in the last two years, says a media report.
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
American President Barack Obama on Tuesday extended the tenure of US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke by another term.
'At current valuations, we believe large-caps offer better downside support.' 'Hence, we are suggesting a small tilt towards them.'
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
The rupee appreciated 7 paise to 79.74 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday as a positive trend in domestic equities supported the local unit. However, a strong American currency overseas and forex outflows restricted the rupee's gain, dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 79.72 against the American dollar, then went lower to trade at 79.74 against the greenback in early deals, registering a gain of 7 paise over the last close.
Foreign investors have pulled over Rs 6,400 crore from the Indian equity market in the first four trading sessions of the ongoing month when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices, inflation, tight monetary policy among others, FPIs' flows in India are expected to remain volatile in the near term, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive amount of over Rs 1.65 lakh crore from equities. This was largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and due to the deteriorating geopolitical environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The US faces the Czech Republic in the first round from April 26-27.
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