John McCain's top economic adviser suggests that Obama may be dragging down the greenback
The government has decided to postpone the release of the new Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) and extend the existing one by six months on account of global uncertainties and currency fluctuations. The government was scheduled to announce the new FTP by the end of September. The current policy was to end on September 30.
Singapore Airlines' deal with Tata Sons (Tata) will inject a further SGD 360 million ($267 million) into Air India. It will give SIA a 25.1 per cent stake in the enlarged Air India group following its takeover by Tata and merger with Vistara Airlines. The November 2022 deal between Singapore Airlines and Tata Sons to further inject $267 million into Air India is one of the key strategic initiatives for future growth mentioned in the quarterly financial report. This agreement is still subject to regulatory approval. SIA in the statement said, "The merged entity will be four to five times larger in scale compared to Vistara, with a strong presence in all key airline segments in India.
The rupee depreciation will work in favour of students who are currently studying in the US and plan to secure a job that pays in dollars.
The rupee had last ended at 67.22 per dollar on March 16, 2016.
India's external debt rose by 8.2 per cent year-on-year to $620.7 billion as of March 2022, which according to the finance ministry is sustainable. While 53.2 per cent of it was denominated in the US dollar, Indian rupee-denominated debt, estimated at 31.2 per cent, was the second largest, as per the status report on India's external debt released by the ministry. "India's external debt continues to be sustainable and prudently managed. As of end-March 2022, it stood at $620.7 billion, growing by 8.2 per cent over the level a year ago.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Speaking at the India Credit Spotlight 2022 webinar, S&P Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings director Andrew Wood said the country has a strong external balance sheet and limited external debt, making debt servicing not so expensive. "The country has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties like those, which we are experiencing right now," Wood said.
Saudi Arabia has agreed to provide US$ 4.2 billion worth of assistance to cash-strapped Pakistan to support its economy, it emerged on Wednesday after Prime Minister Imran Khan held talks with Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman in Riyadh this week.
The rupee depreciated 39 paise to an all-time low of 82.69 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday as elevated crude oil prices and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and firm American currency sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 82.68 against the greenback, then slipped further to 82.69, registering a fall of 39 paise over its previous close.
Equity indices chalked up losses for the second straight session on Monday, in tandem with a bearish trend overseas as ratcheting up of hostilities in Ukraine and prospects of further rate hikes by the US Fed soured global risk sentiment. The rupee slipping to another all-time low against the US dollar amid foreign fund outflows added to the gloom, traders said. After tumbling over 800 points in intra-day trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex clawed back some lost ground to end 200.18 points or 0.34 per cent lower at 57,991.11.
'I am not saying start buying from today. but start buying in the next three-four months.'
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
Benchmark indices failed to hold on to early gains and closed in the red for the seventh straight session on Thursday, with participants remaining in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the RBI's interest rate decision. Unabated selling by foreign funds added to the pressure, though a modest recovery in the rupee cushioned the fall, traders said. After rallying in early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex came under selling pressure in the afternoon session and closed 188.32 points or 0.33 per cent lower at 56,409.96.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
The Nifty IT has been one of the worst-performing indices on the bourses this calendar year. Rising concerns of a potential global recession, which investors fear can dampen demand for export-facing domestic information technology (IT) giants, have sent the index down over 30 per cent on a year-to-date basis. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index has shed 2.8 per cent during the period, reveals data by ACE Equity.
Retail investment demand for gold bars and coins as well as central bank purchases pushed the global gold demand by 28 per cent to 1,181.5 tonnes in the September quarter, according to the World Gold Council report. The total global demand stood at 921.9 tonnes during the July-September quarter of 2021, the World Gold Council's 'Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022' showed on Tuesday. Investment was down 47 per cent year-on-year as gold backed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investors responded to a challenging combination of higher interest rates and a strong US dollar with significant outflows of 227 tonnes.
The rupee extended its losses and slumped 60 paise to close at a record low of 77.50 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, pressured by the strength of the American currency overseas and unabated foreign fund outflows. Forex traders said risk appetite has weakened amid mounting concerns about inflation that may trigger more aggressive rate hikes by global central banks. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.17 against the greenback, and finally settled for the day at 77.50, down 60 paise over its previous close.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries on Saturday said it will raise as much as $5 billion in foreign currency-denominated bonds and use the proceeds to retire existing borrowings. In a stock exchange filing, the company said the Finance Committee of the company board at its meeting on Saturday approved a "proposal for issuance of senior unsecured US Dollar-denominated fixed-rate notes from time to time, for an aggregate amount up to $5 billion, in one or more tranches".
BSE benchmark Sensex nursed losses on Friday as investors pocketed gains after a five-session winning streak amid a bearish trend overseas. A depreciating rupee and foreign fund outflows further soured risk sentiment, traders said. The 30-share gauge, which had started the trade on a firm note, soon gave up all the gains and finally ended 651.85 points or 1.08 per cent lower at 59,646.15. The broader NSE Nifty snapped its eight-day rally to close at 17,758.45, down 198.05 points or 1.10 per cent.
The ever-astute Ravi Matthai, Director of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad in 1971, offered me a basic salary of Rs 1,000 per month on my return from the United States. I doubt if IIMA could hire a faculty member at Rs 55,000 per month today! points out Dr Shreekant Sambrani.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel will start its 3-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of yet another rate hike of 50 basis points to check high inflation, in line with similar actions taken by other major central banks, including the US Fed. Based on the recommendations of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the RBI had effected 50 basis points increase in repo rate each in June and August after raising the short-term lending rate by 40 basis points in an off-cycle decision in May. The MPC, headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is scheduled to meet during September 28-30.
Jet fuel prices on Thursday were hiked by the steepest ever 16 per cent to catapult rates to an all-time high in step with hardening international oil rates.
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Exporters on Thursday demanded fiscal incentives, tweaking in customs duties on certain products and credit at affordable rates in the forthcoming Budget to boost exports and create jobs. In a pre-budget virtual meeting with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar is affecting exports' competitiveness and the sector requires more support. "Creation of employment is the biggest challenge faced by the country...We would urge the government to provide fiscal support to units which provide additional employment in the export sector," the exporter's body said.
Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
Among the many exits from the billionaire's club in 2022 are D Uday Kumar Reddy of Tanla Solutions (net worth down 66 per cent), Sushil Kanubhai Shah of Metropolis Healthcare (down 65.7 per cent), Vijay Shekhar Sharma of One97 Communications (down 66 per cent), and C K Birla (down 43.4 per cent).
Equity indices overcame a wobbly start to clock gains for the third session on the trot on Tuesday, propped up by banking, metal and energy stocks amid a mixed trend in global markets. A recovery in the rupee also bolstered sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 246.47 points or 0.45 per cent to settle at 54,767.62 after starting the trade on a weak note. In a volatile session, the benchmark hit a high of 54,817.52 and a low of 54,232.82 during the day.
The rupee was also pressured as the euro fell for a second day on Friday, hurt by the European Central Bank's surprise interest rate cut and a downgrade to France's credit rating, while the dollar inched up before a key US jobs report.
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In the global market, the dollar was quoted lower in the early trade with investors looking ahead to the following day's European Central Bank policy decision.
The rupee which has been relatively stable over the last couple of months after having seen as much as 20 percent fall to a record low in late August has been boosted mainly by robust foreign fund inflows into the stock market.
When the Tatas re-boarded Air India on January 27 last year, the price of aviation turbine fuel was at over Rs 80,000 per kilolitre. Rupee was trading at around Rs 74 to a US dollar. The Omicron variant of Covid-19 was in prevalence - barely a week earlier, India had reported over 340,000 cases on a single day. Seven-day home quarantine of international travellers was the norm.
It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
'This resilience should be viewed as reflecting the strength of the structural story.'
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Wednesday appealed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to have photos of Lord Ganesh and Goddess Lakshmi on currency notes.
Based on the current momentum, the funds likely to be raised through the RBI's relaxed window would be $3.5 billion-$4 billion.
In August, domestic equity markets garnered one of the highest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, despite the US Federal Reserve standing firm on unwinding its stimulus measures to control inflation. FPIs pumped in over Rs 51,000 crore ($6.4 billion) in August, the most since December 2020 and the third-highest tally since March 2020-the month the Covid-19 pandemic roiled global markets. This was the second consecutive month of positive foreign flows. In the preceding nine months, FPIs had yanked out over $32 billion or Rs 2.2 trillion.
The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets. After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on account of Buddha Purnima.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
It's the first time in my memory that I have seen a negative expected return for equities, notes Akash Prakash. Hopefully, this implies the consensus is being too negative, and markets, as usual, will surprise everyone and deliver the least likely outcome.
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