What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
'Although mid- and small-cap funds have the potential for higher growth, they come with inherent higher volatility.'
The Sensex soared 402 points higher to end at 25,720 and the Nifty surged 130 points to close at 7,819.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
The population is important and so is the talent, he said about China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States.
'While there has been an impact on economic activity, it is not as profound as the lockdown last year.'
Capital gains exemption limit and a steep reduction in the highest surcharge will empower the masses with enhanced liquidity flow that can be invested in real estate, points out Dhaval Ajmera.
In view of the need to enhance credit delivery to the employment- intensive micro and small enterprises sector, it has been decided to provide refinance of an amount of Rs 7,000 crore (Rs 70 billion) to the Small Industries Development Bank of India under the provisions of Section 17(4H) of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934.
Djokovic said his son had won his first tournament on the same day he won the Italian Open
Among Sensex stocks, Maruti rose the most, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra and Asian Paints. Gains in Reliance, TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, HDFC and ICICI Bank also helped the barometer extend its rally for a second day.
Shocks from Brexit could also hurt one of China's biggest export markets.
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
China's population in 2022 -- 1.4118 billion -- fell by 850,000 from 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.
Stating that India's economic stimulus was not adequate, Banerjee said, the measures did not increase consumption spending of lower income people as the government was not willing to put money in the hands of the low income population.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a relief package of Rs 20 lakh crore or about 10 per cent or GDP last week. However, many of the measures unveiled have been in the form of moves like loan guarantees which do not entail an immediate fiscal cost.
'Several businesses like entertainment, hospitality, travel etc would never be the same again.'
This deferred or reduced spending is now extending across most major consumption sectors such as discretionary food and groceries, clothing and home textiles, consumer durables and home appliances, jewellery, furniture and furnishings, leisure travel, and entertainment. Oddly, the response of many manufacturers, marketers and retailers has been counter-intuitive.
ITC was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 5 per cent, followed by L&T, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, M&M, Bajaj Finance and Infosys. NSE Nifty rose 47.10 points to 17,516.85.
The bugles are sounding for efficiency of project delivery in the public sphere and about creation of bankable projects in the private sphere. Both have to ultimately do with governance and management in the public system. And this is clearly the Achilles's heel of infrastructure, says Vinayak Chatterjee.
Spending continues to be less as people who are getting direct benefits from the government are choosing to save in the current situation.
Assocham president Niranjan Hiranandani said his talks with government officials showed dues to industry and states were pending in the form of refunds of income tax, value-added tax, and GST, and compensation, payments to discoms in the power sector, fertiliser subsidies, etc.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said the government has begun an exercise to assess the impact of the pandemic on the economy and likely contraction in GDP, even as she did not rule out the possibility of another stimulus to boost growth.
Fund mobilisation by companies through equity and debt routes has dropped 20 per cent in 2022 to nearly Rs 11 lakh crore, as exuberance dwindled this year due to expensive credit avenues and volatile markets. The first half of 2023 could continue to remain challenging. The year 2021 was extraordinary for fundraising from the equity and debt routes, while 2022 has seen a slowdown in capital raising owing to elevated volatility provoked by unprecedented inflation globally and the Russia-Ukraine war.
In the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank was the top gainer, soaring around 8 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, PowerGrid, ONGC, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma and M&M.
Tata Steel was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 3 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, IndusInd Bank and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty fell by 40.70 points to 17,888.95.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out as much as Rs 17,537 crore from the Indian markets in just three trading sessions of March as investors' sentiment got dented by the uncertainty triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising crude oil prices. As per depositories data, they pulled out Rs 14,721 crore from equities, Rs 2,808 crore from debt segment and Rs 9 crore from hybrid instruments between March 2-4. This took the total net outflow to Rs 17,537 crore.
The government kept its nerve in the face of a massive shock. It chose not to resort to a massive fiscal stimulus. It focused instead on providing liquidity support and easing restrictions on movement in stages, observes T T Ram Mohan.
Sentiment in the market will also be guided by other major market movers like trend in the rupee, Brent crude and foreign capital flows.
Indian equity markets are likely to witness volatility this week due to concerns over rising cases of coronavirus and expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Further, progress surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine, related updates, US stimulus talks and global cues would dictate the market trend, traders said. "Going ahead, the market is likely to be volatile as sentiments oscillate between fear of rising COVID cases globally and optimism over vaccine progress. Investors would closely watch out development over the US stimulus talks," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday announced a new job creation scheme by giving subsidy to those establishments that make new hires. The subsidy would be to cover for retirement fund contributions by employees as well as employers for two years, she said. Employees contribution (12 per cent of wages) and employer's contribution (12 per cent of wages) totalling 24 per cent of wages would be given to establishments for two years, she said. Under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana, every Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO)-registered establishment taking new employees would get this subsidy.
In August, domestic equity markets garnered one of the highest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, despite the US Federal Reserve standing firm on unwinding its stimulus measures to control inflation. FPIs pumped in over Rs 51,000 crore ($6.4 billion) in August, the most since December 2020 and the third-highest tally since March 2020-the month the Covid-19 pandemic roiled global markets. This was the second consecutive month of positive foreign flows. In the preceding nine months, FPIs had yanked out over $32 billion or Rs 2.2 trillion.
India's economy, estimated to contract by 6.9 per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, is forecast to record a "stronger recovery" in 2021 and grow by 5 per cent, according to a UN report which said the country's current fiscal year budget points to a shift towards demand-side stimulus, with an uptick in public investment. The report, 'Out of the frying pan ...Into the fire?' published Thursday as an update to the Trade and Development Report 2020 by UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said the global economy is set to grow by 4.7 per cent this year, faster than the 4.3 per cent predicted in September 2020, thanks in part to a stronger recovery in the US, where progress in distributing vaccines and a fresh fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion are expected to boost consumer spending.
Terming the 23.9 per cent fall in economic growth in the June quarter alarming, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has said bureaucracy should come out of complacency and take meaningful action. The current crisis requires a more thoughtful and active government, he said, adding, "Unfortunately, after an initial burst of activity, it seems to have retreated into a shell."
The government Rs 20 lakh crore package includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore of fiscal stimulus announced in the first phase, Rs 5.6 lakh crore stimulus provided through various monetary policy measures and Rs 5.94 lakh crore through the second phase, implying Rs 6.70 lakh crore package is still to be announced.
Bajaj Finance was the top loser, tumbling 4.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel and HCL Tech. NSE Nifty crashed 290.70 points or 2.43 per cent to 11,680.35.
It's the first time in my memory that I have seen a negative expected return for equities, notes Akash Prakash. Hopefully, this implies the consensus is being too negative, and markets, as usual, will surprise everyone and deliver the least likely outcome.
The brokerage said that the reform measures announced by the government will help growth only over the medium term and are not expected to have any benefit in the near-term.
'It is entering growth territory on a month-on-month basis.'
'The question is, how soon we can expect to re-attain the pre-lockdown levels of output and income.'
Equity market sentiment this week will be guided by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers, while bourses may also see some volatility amid expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Fears of sooner-than-expected tapering in monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve, rising cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus coupled with China's regulatory crackdown triggered selling in global markets in the previous week.
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