Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath has said a hefty cut in the US interest rates will have a positive impact for the Indian exports, but industry leader Rahul Bajaj felt the move will further hit exporters. "The US Fed's decision would rather boost Indian exports to America as it would raise demand in the biggest economy of the world," Nath said at the World Economic Forum annual meet in Davos.
The majority view remains for the central bank to leave the cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4 per cent.
'It makes sense to have gold in one's portfolio keeping the political and economic risks of 2024 in mind.'
Benchmark indices finished higher on hopes of economic reforms
Morgan Stanley expects RBI to cut rates sharply rather than "dribble down".
RBI had previously cut repo rate by 0.25 per cent each in January and March.
Service providers' confidence with regard to the 12-month outlook for business activity remained positive.
It can be closer to RBI's perceived comfort level.
In the Sensex pack, 20 stocks ended in the red while 37 of the Nifty constituents closed the session with losses. NTPC was the biggest loser among the Sensex constituents, ending with a loss of 2.71 per cent.
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
India imports 80 percent of its oil, which adds to inflationary pressure.
The benchmark BSE Sensex reclaimed the 28,000 mark, spurting by 409 points or 1.4% at 28,114 and Nifty settled above the 8,500 mark at 8,532, gains of 111 points.
'The market movement will be largely driven by earnings growth.'
The analysts believe that the rate cut would put downward pressure on the US dollar, thus boosting the gold prices in the non-dollar currency markets.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Tuesday reported halving of its March quarter net profit largely because of losses in the petrochemical business and shrinking margin after it announced a pre-election fuel price cut despite rising input costs. The net profit of Rs 4,837.69 crore in January-March compared to Rs 10,058.69 crore a year back and Rs 8,063.39 crore in the preceding October-December quarter, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
Benchmark equity indices ended marginally higher on Thursday, trimming most of their intra-day gains, as investors turned cautious ahead of the quarterly results of IT behemoths TCS and Infosys later in the day. Announcement of the US inflation data and domestic macroeconomic numbers also forced investors to remain on the sidelines. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 63.47 points or 0.09 per cent to settle at 71,721.18.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
Join Rajiv Raj of Credit Vidya on how RBI's rate cut will affect your dream of buying a home.
'If the majority falls short of expectations, it may prompt initial adjustments in investor sentiment.'
Among the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, ITC, Nestle, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and Hindustan Unilever were the major laggards. In contrast, HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Titan were the gainers.
ICICI Bank on Saturday said its March quarter consolidated net profit grew 18.5 per cent to Rs 11,672 crore, helped by lower provisions. On a standalone basis, the second largest private sector lender showed a 17.4 per cent growth in its profit after tax at Rs 10,708 crore for the reporting quarter against Rs 9,122 crore in the year-ago period. For fiscal 2023-24, its standalone net profit grew to Rs 40,888 crore from Rs 31,896 crore a year ago.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
For banks to cut loan rates, the cost of deposits needs to come down, and there is no sign of that happening.
Lower crude oil prices would impact India's inflation, CAD.
'Investors with higher risk appetite and longer horizon (more than one year) can invest in longer-duration funds like corporate bond funds, long-duration funds and gilt funds for maximum gain.'
First-time home buyers have stayed away from the market ever since developers, in a bid to cash in on the market sentiment, focused on launching luxurious projects, bigger in size and priced beyond the reach of average buyers. Property prices across India more than tripled from 2003-07, owing to rising incomes, mortgage availability at inexpensive rates, higher tax benefits and speculators flocking to the market.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
The broader Nifty also slipped from record by falling 33.15 points at 10,081.50 as investors booked profits.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
If providing a stimulus to growth is the objective now, that would be best served by moving rates as quickly as possible to the bottom.
The number of dematerialised (demat) accounts - required to hold shares and other securities in electronics format - crossed the 150-million mark for the first time in March. In March, 3.12 million new demat accounts were added despite a spike in market volatility, taking the total count to 151.4 million. The milestone has come 19 months after the total number of demat accounts hit the 100-million mark, a sign that more domestic households are taking to direct equity investing.
RBI recently cut repo by 0.25 percentage point, taking the rate to 7.25 per cent in three reductions since January.
Actively managed debt funds with the flexibility to go long on duration made a strong comeback on the returns chart in 2023, thanks to softening bond yields. The average one-year returns of floater, long-duration, gilt, and dynamic bond funds, which ranged between 2.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent at the end of 2022, now stand at over 7.2 per cent, with some schemes delivering over 8.5 per cent, according to data from Value Research. Debt fund returns are inversely related to yields of underlying investments, meaning a decline in yields is positive for funds.
Most market analysts are expecting the momentum to shift towards 'quality' and 'growth' stocks in 2024 after the outperformance of 'value' stocks over the past three years. 'Value' stocks are generally well-established companies with steady profits that are trading at a discount to what they are intrinsically worth. Companies in sectors such as commodities, industrials, commercial vehicles and public sector units (PSUs) fall in this bracket.
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma and Tata Steel were the major gainers. On the other hand, Nestle, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
Rajan has ignored pressure to loosen policy.
Scanty rain would have put extra pressure on food prices.
Experts say lending rates won't come down significantly,as banks are grappling with NPAs
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
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