The imposition of safeguard duty, an uptick in exports, and an increase in input cost are driving steel prices higher. The latest round of price increase took place on Friday, with some steel mills increasing hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices by ~500-750 a tonne, according to price reporting and market intelligence firm BigMint. HRC is a benchmark for flat steel.
The Indian steel industry is faced with a paradox: Rising demand and falling prices. Demand continues to surge as user industries gather pace, with the World Steel Association projecting around 9 per cent annual growth for India over 2025 and 2026, the year domestic demand is projected to be almost 75 million tonnes (mt) higher than in 2020.
Domestic steel prices have seen an increase over the past couple of months in anticipation of a safeguard duty, but a looming global trade war is likely to weigh as threat of import rises and prospect of export flounders. Data from BigMint showed that in March 2025, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices ex-Mumbai increased by Rs 600 per tonne month-on-month (M-o-M), rising from Rs 48,400 per tonne in February to Rs 49,000 per tonne.
'We have to be prepared for the larger disruption that is likely to take place.'
India's leading steel companies hope the Modi 3.0 Budget will continue the massive capital expenditure currently underway, focusing on infrastructure development, manufacturing, and fair trade. The infrastructure segment is the largest steel user, and the government's focus has fuelled steel consumption even as international markets have underperformed. According to provisional statistics, steel consumption grew 13.6 per cent in FY24, reaching 136 million tonnes (mt), according to a CRISIL report.
From setting up cutting-edge facilities to cater to the domestic market and building capabilities of global standards, the action is building up.
Strong demand in the domestic market, coupled with an increase in raw material prices, is pushing up steel prices. According to SteelMint, a market intelligence and price reporting firm, the list price of flat steel has seen an increase of Rs 750-2,000 per tonne for October deliveries. The long steel price witnessed an increase of Rs 1,500 per tonne towards the end of September.
Worried by a spike in Chinese imports, the Indian Steel Association (ISA) plans to take up the matter with the government and seek measures to fix "trade distortions". Alok Sahay, secretary general of the group that represents the country's steel producers, said systemic changes were needed. "In order to take any trade measure, it takes a minimum of 15 months' time, due to prevalence of lesser duty rule in India, making India an easy target. "We are going to write to the government on this," he said.
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
Raw material prices had been on the rise, but since Russia waged war on Ukraine, prices have surged.
When the world was upended by the Covid-19 pandemic, metals got its shine back. In the last two years, infrastructure spending by major economies spurred demand, energy transition and intermittent supply disruptions fuelled a scorching rally in metals after a downturn during the first Covid wave. Now, Russia's war on Ukraine is ensuring that elevated prices stay the course.
Russia's war on Ukraine has sent steel prices soaring to its highest levels in the domestic market since November 2021. But there is little cheer in the industry. That's because input costs are spiralling out of control, leaving the big boys nearly as high and dry as the small, medium and secondary steel producers. Russia and Ukraine are major providers of steel and raw materials to the world.
Positive cues from China - which accounts for 56.5 per cent of global crude steel production - are likely to keep demand-supply in balance and provide support to prices. All eyes have been on China, which opened after New Year holidays, as it was widely expected that prices would recover post-holidays after the weakness in January. Jayanta Roy, senior vice president, ICRA pointed out, barring last year when Covid-related restrictions affected China's steel demand in February 2020, historical trends show a typical upward movement in steel prices post-new year festivities. China's opening post-holidays was keenly awaited, especially in the wake of the sluggishness in the market in January.
Spiraling steel prices led the government to cut customs duty by 2.5-5.5 per cent on a range of products from semi-finished to flat and long products for the benefit of MSMEs, that have been at the receiving end.
Metal prices from copper to aluminum and tin have shot up by about 7-32 per cent in the past three months.
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