April-June 2023 (Q1FY24) was a mixed quarter for India's top family-owned business groups. Three of the big five in terms of revenue reported a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in combined net sales and two saw a Y-o-Y fall in net profits. Combined net sales of all listed companies in the five groups were up just 2.2 per cent Y-o-Y at Rs 6.6 trillion in the quarter, down sharply from the 10.3 per cent in the March 2023 quarter (Q4FY23) and 42.8 per cent in Q1FY23.
TVS Motor Company met expectations in terms of revenue and posted a strong margin performance in Q1FY25. The key drivers were material cost savings and a better mix. The domestic demand outlook looks good with a rural rebound but geopolitical uncertainties in key export markets may dent overall growth.
The stock of Voltas, the country's largest room air- conditioner (RAC) maker, is up 22 per cent in the past three months. Robust demand on the back of a sweltering summer, distribution expansion, slew of launches and backward integration are expected to forge a good operating performance for the company. In the core RAC segment, there are multiple triggers for the company.
However, the Polycab share price is up by nearly 80 per cent while Havells' has risen by 39 per cent. The Sensex has gained 26 per cent in this period. The Q1FY25 results were in line for both companies.
Shares of healthcare services major Max Healthcare Institute have gained over 23 per cent since the start of this month and the stock crossed the Rs 1 trillion mark on September 24. On September 25, it closed 989.85 apiece at the NSE. The gains were cornered on the back of a strong outlook for the sector and aggressive expansion plans for the chain led by acquisitions and organic growth.
There has been a sharp recovery in the headline corporate earnings in the April-June 2023 quarter (Q1FY24), after a dismal showing by early bird companies. The combined net profit of the 983 listed companies that have declared their quarterly results, so far, was up 64.7 per cent year-on-year to record a high of Rs 2.68 trillion in the first quarter, but growth in earnings remained lopsided because most of the incremental gains came from a handful of companies. Moreover, the quarterly numbers showed a continued slowdown in revenue growth.
The Indian IT services industry is expected to clock revenue growth in the mid-single digit for the financial year 2024-2025 (FY25), according to a report by Icra for the year.
The "asset-right" strategy, reiterated by ITC chairman Sanjiv Puri during the company's 112th annual general meeting (AGM) on August 11, received a thumbs up from the analysts. They, however, believe that sustained earnings growth and synergies with the demerged hotel's vertical will help the stock break out from the ongoing consolidation. "The stock is expected to consolidate between Rs 420 and Rs 450 in the near future.
Ola Electric is conducting an restructuring exercise which is expected to affect over 500 employees across various roles within the organisation, according to sources. This would be over 12 per cent of staff at the firm which has about 4,000 people. "This is a restructuring exercise ongoing for the last few months and is expected to conclude by next month," said a person familiar with the development.
Coal India looks set to achieve its 2024-25 (FY25) production targets. If it can achieve its aim of ramping up Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA) and e-auction volumes, along with cost-saving, evacuation and infrastructure-improvement projects, the company could maintain its momentum as a critical infrastructure and core industry performer. Analysts estimate e-auction volumes of 108 million tonnes (MT) in FY25 and 120 MT for FY26, which is encouraging given the premium of e-auction prices which are consistently over 50 per cent higher than FSA.
Mahindra & Mahindra on Wednesday posted a 20 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit at Rs 3,283 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2024. The Mumbai-based company had reported a profit after tax of Rs 2,745 crore in the year-ago period. Revenue rose 10 per cent year-on-year to Rs 37,218 crore as compared to Rs 33,892 crore in the June quarter of last fiscal, the company said.
Balance-level delinquencies in the credit card segment saw a 17 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in the quarter ending June 2024 (Q1FY25). In all other credit segments, including personal loans, delinquencies declined even as retail credit growth moderated, consequent to banks tightening the supply of credit to the unsecured segments, a report by TransUnion CIBIL said on Monday. Data shows that balance-level delinquencies, measured in terms of 90 days or more past due, in the credit card segment stood at 1.8 per cent in Q1FY25- highest among all other credit segments.
Insurance companies reported nearly 23 per cent growth in first year premium in the first quarter of financial year 2024-25, when compared to the same period last year, with market leader LIC leading the charge with 28 per cent growth. According to the data released by the Life Insurance Council, the new business premium (NBP) increased by 22.91 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ~89,726.7 crore in Q1FY25 from ~73,004.87 crore in Q1 FY24, reflecting a robust demand for insurance policies in the country.
During the September quarter (Q2FY25), Hindustan Zinc's (HZL's) revenue was reported at Rs 8,300 crore (up 22 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y, and 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q), marginally above consensus. Operating profit stood at Rs 4,100 crore (up 31 per cent Y-o-Y and 5 per cent Q-o-Q), also a small beat. The operating profit margin was 50 per cent, up from 48.5 per cent in Q1FY25.
Private sector banks that announced their earnings for the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25) reported a rise in credit costs due to higher provisions, mainly for unsecured retail loans.
States are on track of fiscal consolidation with their total borrowings reaching Rs 5 trillion till October, which is 60 per cent of the projected borrowings of Rs 8.38 trillion till December 2024, according to data from official sources. Government officials said the lower-than-projected borrowings by states were a sign of prudent fiscal management by them. States announce their borrowing plans every quarter.
India's steel market is out of step with global trends. Global demand is weak with China at a huge supply surplus to its domestic demand, pushing down global steel prices. India's domestic demand for steel is strong, given the continuing infrastructure push and is likely to accelerate as urbanisation improves, and the auto sector continues to grow alongside the infrastructure push.
In calendar year 2024, the stock price of Trent has zoomed 160% As compared to the 18% rally in the BSE Sensex during the same period. It has outperformed the market in the past 10 consecutive years.
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
Banks are likely to see their net interest margins (NIM) - broadly the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits - shrink by another 30 basis points (bps) over the next few quarters. After hitting a peak of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter (Q3) of the financial year ended March 31, 2023 (FY23), NIMs have been on a downward trajectory, touching 3.13 per cent in Q2FY24 on higher cost of funds, according to capital markets firm CARE Ratings. Banks are still grappling with the Reserve Bank of India's policy rate increases - that have made deposits costlier as the interest payable to customers has increased - and the regulatory actions on unsecured lending.
Reserve Bank on Thursday retained the growth and inflation projection at 7.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively for the current fiscal amid expectations of a normal monsoon. In its last bi-monthly monetary policy review in June, RBI had projected real GDP growth and retail inflation at the same.
Consolidated earnings for oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries (RIL) may report sequential weakness, and modest year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in the June 2024 quarter (Q1FY25), said analysts. Lower refining margins are expected to moderate gains made from other businesses. RIL is slated to report its financial performance for Q1FY25 on July 19.
Economists at the country's largest lender SBI on Wednesday said they see Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and if it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7 per cent. It can be noted that the April-June period saw the real GDP expanding by 6.7 per cent, the lowest in 15 quarters.
Despite steady loan growth, the banking sector is expected to report subdued margins in the quarter ending June 2024 (Q1FY25), driven by high demand for deposits amidst tight liquidity conditions. However, according to Bloomberg analysts, listed banks are forecasted to see a 14.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in net profit. Estimates showed that banks' net interest income (NII), and revenues from interest minus interest expenses might grow 11.9 per cent Y-o-Y.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
Deputy Governor Michael Patra warned about the spillover effects of food inflation.
Outward remittances under the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) liberalised remittance scheme (LRS) surged by 50.64 per cent to $9.1 billion in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), driven by healthy growth across segments due to a revision in the timeline of tax collected at source under the LRS scheme and normalisation in international travel. Major drivers include equity and debt investments, deposits, and the international travel segment, among others. According to the latest RBI data, the amount remitted under LRS stood at $9.1 billion in Q1FY24, compared with $6.05 billion in the same quarter last year.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
India's information technology (IT) sector will witness subdued hiring in 2023-24 as macro uncertainties impact demand environment, with clients either taking a pause on spend or stopping discretionary spend, say human resource experts. To begin with, unlike earlier years, the three large IT players TCS, HCLTech, and Wipro have not provided any new hiring targets for the financial year. And Wipro has said that its hiring target will depend on the demand environment.
Concerns have been raised over Marico's exposure to Bangladesh in the wake of turmoil in that country. However, the management reiterated expectations of growing domestic business at double digits and maintaining international growth. Marico scaled up its food business by 4 times between FY20-24 and aims to double it again in the next three financial years.
The outcome of the Union Budget, quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends are the major factors to drive stock market sentiments this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude are also crucial aspects to watch out for.
While analysts assessed One97 Communications (Paytm) Q1FY24 results as in-line with guidance, the market was disappointed and the stock fell by around 5 per cent. Paytm reported a net loss of Rs 360 crore, but revenue grew 39 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 2,340 crore. It was supported by strong growth in gross merchandising value (GMV), higher disbursements and the addition of subscription devices.
The K-shaped economic recovery in India from the pandemic slowdown shows in corporate results as well. The automobile sector, which represents big-ticket consumption, continues to do well and has increased its share in corporate revenues and profits while fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies that sell low-ticket consumer goods are struggling with poor sales and earnings growth. The share of the automobile sector, including makers of auto ancillaries, in corporate net sales rose to a 10-quarter high of 10.05 per cent during July-September 2023 (Q2FY24) from 8.94 per cent a year earlier and 9.75 per cent in Q1FY24.
Private equity (PE) investment in real estate declined 5 per cent year-on-year in April-June to $1.9 billion because of high interest rates, according to Anarock. PE inflows stood at $2 billion in the year-ago period. Real estate consultant Anarock has come out with a report titled 'FLUX Q1 FY24 Market Monitor for Capital Flows in Indian Real Estate'.
Steel companies are witnessing margin pressures in Q2FY25 and this may persist until China sees growth recovery.
Passenger vehicle sales are expected to experience muted growth in the current financial year.
Britannia Industries reported revenue growth of 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY25 and volume growth of 8 per cent implying price trends were adverse. Other operating income jumped 195 per cent, due to the incentive received for the Ranjangaon plant. The non-biscuit portfolio (rusk, cake, bread) remained key to growth and contributed 25 per cent of the total revenue.
The ratio of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (GDP) in India remains elevated despite the recent correction in the equities markets. It was 147.5 per cent on December 3, 56 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 94 per cent. The current ratio is slightly lower than the all-time high ratio of 154 per cent at the end of September this year.
A strong business update for the April-June quarter of the 2023-24 financial year Q1FY24 has led to a big jump of over 7 per cent in the share price of Bajaj Finance on Tuesday (July 4). The non-banking financial company's (NBFC's) new loan book grew 34 per cent with 9.9 million new loans booked in Q1FY24 from 7.2 million loans booked in Q1FY23. The company's total customer franchise rose to 72.98 million (as on June 30, 2023), compared to 60.30 million year-on-year (YoY) with the highest-ever quarterly increase of 3.84 million in Q1FY24. Assets under management (AUM) grew by 32 per cent to about Rs. 270,050 crore in Q1FY24 from Rs. 204,018 crore in Q1FY23.
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) saw strong volume performance in the first quarter of the current financial year (Q1FY25), but margins disappointed due to weak spare part sales and negative electric vehicle (EV) margins. The company hopes for a strong festive season due to better rural sentiment. Revenue grew 16 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 10,140 crore, operating profit was up 21 per cent to Rs 1,460 crore, and adjusted net profit grew 19 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 1,120 crore.
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