Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
The country is gripped in an unprecedented economic downturn which is certainly going to spill over into the second half of this year unless the infection rate can be brought under control.
India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed the strongest rate of growth in three months in July amid improved demand conditions and easing of some local COVID-19 restrictions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 48.1 in June to 55.3 in July, pointing to the strongest rate of growth in three months. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
India's services industry expanded at its fastest pace in eight months in October as new business rose with discounting probably stoking demand, a survey showed on Wednesday.
Top losers are Sun Pharma, Bajaj Auto, L&T, ITC, Hero Moto.
The coronavirus outbreak has brought a large part of the world's second-largest economy China to a standstill and its impact has been felt across industries.
Indian service sector output broadly stabilised in September but remained in the contraction zone as incoming new business fell moderately due to the damaging impact of the pandemic on demand, leading to more job losses.
Domestic macroeconomic data, RBI policy and developments related to the Russia-Ukraine war would be major driving factors for the stock market this week, analysts said. Moreover, FPI investment and trends in crude oil would also influence the trading sentiment, they added. "This week, the RBI credit policy will be a critical factor for Indian markets.
India's manufacturing sector activities lost further growth momentum and fell to a seven-month low in March as demand was constrained by the escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 57.5 in February to a seven-month low of 55.4 in March. However, the latest reading was indicative of a substantial improvement in the health of the sector that outpaced the long-run series average, it said. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
PMI went up from 51.2 points in May to 53.1 in June. Owing to the June figure, PMI for manufacturing stood at 51.9 points in the first quarter of 2018-19 against 51.8 points in the fourth quarter of 2017-18.
India's manufacturing sector activities eased slightly in February but firms were upbeat as they responded to increased new work intakes by stepping up production and purchasing activities, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally-adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell marginally to 57.5 in February from 57.7 in January, indicating that even though the pace of growth eased from January it remained sharp in the context of historical data. The headline figure for February remained above its long-run average of 53.6, the survey noted. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said there were visible signs of revival in the economy but the GDP growth may be in the negative zone or near zero in the current fiscal.
India's services sector activities eased in March as growth was hit by the detrimental impact of the coronavirus pandemic and input costs remained elevated, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally-adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 55.3 in February to 54.6 in March. Though the rates of expansion softened, it indicated growth for the sixth consecutive month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising nearly 6 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, SBI, Maruti, Tech Mahindra and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty surged 183.70 points to close at 17,166.90.
There will be status quo with regard to the MoUs signed with Hengli Engineering, PMI Electro Mobility Solutions JV with Photon and Great Wall Motors on June 15, 2020.
The survey also showed that both input and output prices rose at a slower pace during the month.
The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 in November to 52.7 in December. Factories benefited from a rebound in demand, and responded by scaling up production to the greatest extent since May. As per the survey, new work orders witnessed marked improvement, with the pace of expansion picking up to the fastest since July.
The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index fell to 50.2 in May, from 51.0 in April, pointing to the slowest growth rate in the current 12-month stretch of expansion.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 58.9 in October to a three-month low of 56.3 in November, indicating that the manufacturing sector growth remained strong, despite losing traction.
India was already in the midst of a protracted economic slowdown before the virus hit due to a festering crisis among shadow lenders and declining consumer demand and private investment. Service sector activity in India is still effectively on hold.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, zooming over 12 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv and Kotak Bank. On the other hand, ITC, NTPC, Titan, Reliance Industries and ONGC were the laggards.
Macro-economic data from China and minutes of the US Federal Reserve's last meeting caused the turmoil as stocks tumbled around the globe.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
Services companies reported an increase in new work intakes, which they attributed to successful marketing efforts and strengthening demand.
Broadly stagnant sales causes the first drop in business activity in over a year.
On the job front, Indian service providers continued to add to their payrolls and the sector witnessed the second-strongest increase in employment since March 2011.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has spooked financial markets globally, will set the tone for Dalal Street this week amid concerns over energy prices and foreign fund outflows, analysts said. Participants will also track key macroeconomic signals like GDP estimates and PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week, they added. "With earnings season behind us and given the overall sentiments, markets are expected to move in sync with global peers in the coming week. "A close eye will be kept on the developments concerning the Russia - Ukraine crisis and considering the inflation overhang, market participants will also observe movements in energy prices," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.
The main factor boosting production was a sustained rise in new work inflows.
This is the 14th consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI remained above the 50-point mark. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
A figure above 50 indicates that the sector is expanding, while a figure below that level means contraction.
Firms seem to have adopted a wait-and-see approach on their plans until public policies become clearer upon the formation of a government.
Stock markets are expected to remain under pressure this week due to the overhang of US presidential polls and uncertainty over global growth due to resurging cases of coronavirus, according to analysts.
The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose sharply from 34.2 in July to 41.8 in August, the highest since March, before the escalation of the pandemic.
New business received by Indian manufacturers expanded at the fastest pace since February.
The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index, that maps both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose from 53.3 in June to 54.1 in July.
This is the 22nd consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50-point mark.
The services sector suffering due to slowing orders, says HSBC.
It will bear fruit in the next five years, which is why FDI is so strong. The foreigners clearly know what Indians don't, asserts T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
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