Global index provider MSCI has announced the addition of four Indian companies-including Fortis Healthcare and Paytm - to its Global Standard indices. According to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, each of these companies is expected to see passive inflows exceeding $400 million. Shares of Paytm rose 4.3 per cent on Thursday, while Fortis Healthcare dipped 1.1 per cent.
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
UBS has turned bullish on emerging markets (EM), including India, as it finds benign macro trends, positive momentum in earnings revisions, and resilient EM currencies helping these economies sustain higher valuations and attracting flows. Among regions, it has upgraded Mainland China to 'attractive' and China Tech to 'most attractive', while downgrading Philippines to 'neutral'.
Just over a year ago, India was investors' top pick among EMs. Its slide down the rankings follows $30 billion (over 2.5 trillion) of foreign selling over the past 12-13 months.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower in a highly volatile trade on Thursday amid relentless foreign fund outflows and selling in blue-chip ICICI Bank. Falling for the second day in a row, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 148.14 points or 0.18 per cent to settle at 83,311.01.
China has stayed on top for two consecutive months in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (EM IMI), after ceding the position to India in August. At the end of October, China's weight in the key EM gauge stood at 24.72 per cent, up from 21.58 per cent at the end of August. India's weight during this period has slipped to 20.42 per cent from 22.27 per cent.
The Indian equity markets will soon account for over a fifth of a key emerging market (EM) benchmark tracked by funds with assets exceeding $500 billion. This development is expected to funnel as much as $3 billion into the domestic markets. Following the latest review undertaken by global index provider MSCI, India's weighting in the MSCI EM index will surpass 20 per cent for the first time, narrowing its gap with the current top-weighted China to fewer than 400 basis points.
Global emerging market investors are sharply cutting back on India, making it the largest underweight market, as funds rotate into China, Hong Kong, and South Korea amid tariff shocks and valuation concerns.
GST 2.0 may cushion consumers against US tariffs, but like the 2019 corporate tax cut, it risks being another tactical fix rather than a structural growth strategy, expects Debashis Basu.
You can't be the second-most expensive market in the world and deliver just 10 per cent EPS growth, points out Akash Prakash.
HDFC Bank's latest shareholding data showed that the room for foreign investment has fallen just 5 basis points short of the threshold set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to fully include the stock in its indices. Currently, the index provider has applied an adjustment factor of 0.5 since the foreign room is less than 25 per cent. Removal of the adjustment factor will result in inflows of a massive $4.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) into HDFC Bank, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
IndusInd Bank, Suzlon, and Paytm will remain under focus, as the stocks are pegged to get added to the MSCI global standard index. These stocks, along with six others, are seen attracting cumulative inflows of nearly $2 billion from passive funds tracking MSCI indices. Persistent Systems, APL Apollo, Polycab, Macrotech Developers, Tata Motors DVR, and Tata Communication are the other six stocks that will be added to the MSCI index, shows an analysis done by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research.
Promoters of India's top private listed companies have cut their stakes sharply since 2021, taking advantage of elevated valuations and reshaping ownership dynamics in the market. Holdings of promoters in the top 200 privately owned listed firms declined nearly 600 basis points (bps) to 37 per cent at the end of FY25, from 43 per cent in FY21.
New-age stocks to buy: Most new-age stocks have turned out to be wealth destroyers in stock markets, so far, in calendar year 2025. Shares of Ola Electric Mobility, for instance, have plunged nearly 50 per cent in the first half of CY 2025, while those of Swiggy, PB Fintech, Paytm, and Eternal (Zomato) have crashed between 6 per cent and 25 per cent, ACE Equity data shows.
Financial index provider MSCI on Thursday said that it is reviewing the free float status of some Adani Group securities after market participants flagged concerns over eligibility of some of the group firms' securities for its indexes. MSCI defines the free float of a security as the proportion of shares outstanding that is considered available for purchase in the public equity markets by international investors. In a statement, the index provider said that it has received feedback from a range of market participants concerning the eligibility and free float determination of specific securities associated with the Adani Group for the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes.
While the stocks met various other inclusion parameters, there were fears they may still get disqualified given the sharp run up in their stock prices.
With India overtaking China in terms of weightage in the Morgan Stanley emerging markets IMI, Indian equities could see inflows of about $4.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore), according to estimates. This week, Morgan Stanley announced that India has overtaken China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (MSCI EM IMI). The weight of India in MSCI EM IMI stood at 22.27 per cent compared to 21.58 per cent of China.
As the Indian stock markets tumble under the panic set off by US President Donald Trump's tariff tantrums, three market experts weigh in on the reasons behind this fall, how much pain is left and how should investors adapt their strategies to invest in markets.
ITC's move to hive off its hotel business will have implications for passive funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) similar to that seen during the Reliance Industries-Jio Financial demerger. As ITC is part of popular indices such as Nifty and Sensex, it is held by several index funds and ETFs.
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
Domestic passive mutual fund (MF) schemes will have to sell around Rs 1,500 crore worth of ITC Hotels shares once the demerged entity lists on the exchanges, according to estimates. Passive MF schemes - especially those tracking the Nifty 50 and Sensex - will have to offload their holdings in ITC Hotels as the stock will be excluded from the indices.
Analysts are of the view that long-term investors could continue to hold the stock, irrespective of the MSCI development.
Zomato on Monday became the first new-age company to join the prestigious 30-share benchmark Sensex, replacing JSW Steel. This milestone marks a significant achievement not only for Zomato but also for the Indian startup ecosystem, which is increasingly making its presence felt in the $5.2 trillion listed ecosystem.
A delegation of high-level executives from US public pension funds (non-profit and government sectors) is visiting India next week to assess and familiarise themselves with the investment opportunities in the country. These executives belong to various American states and cumulatively represent $1.8 trillion in assets under management (AUM) invested across the US and global markets. The United States (US) mission to India, which includes its embassy and consulates and the Department of Treasury, along with India's Ministry of Finance and the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), is hosting the delegation.
Equity benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled nearly 700 points to sink below the 79,000 level on Tuesday, extending its losses for the second straight day due to selling pressure in HDFC Bank, SBI and ITC amid fresh foreign capital outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 692.89 points or 0.87 per cent to settle at 78,956.03. During the day, it tanked 759.54 points or 0.95 per cent to 78,889.38.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
This will follow Israel's exit from the Index and entry into the MSCI World Index, comprising developed markets.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
Morgan Stanley Capital International has added Maruti Udyog to its India index with effect from August 29.
South Korea's move to ban stock short-selling may further delay its quest to bag an 'upgrade' to 'developed market' status from global index provider MSCI, said analysts. South Korea will prohibit stock short-selling until June 2024 to allow its regulators to "actively" improve rules and systems. South Korea is currently classified as an 'emerging market (EM)' alongside India, China and Taiwan in MSCI indices.
The rupee has depreciated by 0.6 per cent so far in the current financial year.
The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board's (FRTIB), one of the US government's main retirement funds, decision to change the benchmark index for gaining international exposure will channel $3.6 billion (Rs 30,000 crore) inflows into domestic equities. India has a weightage of 5.3 per cent, seventh-most in the new MSCI ACWI IMI ex USA ex China ex Hong Index, which FRTIB now plans to use. India isn't part of the current developed markets-dominated MSCI EAFE index that the pension fund uses.
The Indian equity markets have significantly increased in importance within the emerging market (EM) basket of stocks in recent years. Since 2018, India's weighting in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) EM Index - tracked by passive funds with assets of nearly $500 billion - has doubled, while the number of domestic stocks has grown by almost 70 per cent.
'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'
Despite the rally in equities over the last few years, India, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is still in early stages of an equity cult. Any changes to the capital gains tax for equities - both long-term and short-term - in Budget 2024 scheduled to be announced on July 23, he believes, can trigger a bigger correction that what the markets witnessed post the Lok Sabha election outcome on June 4 that saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lose majority, though it was able to form the government with the help of coalition partners.
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