'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
Recent documents by NITI Aayog and periodic labour force surveys on employment show that the importance of agriculture is rising in the Indian economy.
Employment in urban areas in the first quarter of 2024-25 (FY25) improved over the previous one. The unemployment rate in April-June (Q1) declined to 6.6 per cent from a four-quarter high of 6.7 per cent in January-March FY24 owing to the fall in the male unemployment rate, according to the quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data, released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
The unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 6.7 per cent in the January-March period from 6.8 per cent a year ago, according to the National Sample Survey Survey (NSSO). Joblessness, or unemployment rate, is defined as the percentage of unemployed people in the labour force. The unemployment rate in the March quarter of FY23 was 6.8 per cent, while it was 6.6 per cent in April-June as well as in the third quarter (July-September 2023) of the previous fiscal.
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
The report highlights that India's population in 2036 is expected to be more feminine compared to the 2011 population, as reflected in the sex ratio which is projected to increase from 943 in 2011 to 952 by 2036, highlighting a positive trend in gender equality.
The labour ministry on Monday rebutted a recent report by Citigroup which forecast that India will struggle to create sufficient employment opportunities even with a 7 per cent growth rate. The ministry in a statement said the report "fails to account for the comprehensive and positive employment data available from official sources such as Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and the Reserve Bank of India's KLEMS data."
The unemployment rate for women was last this low around Diwali in 2022. The unemployment rate has dropped for women from 14.9 per cent in December 2023 to 11 per cent in January 2024, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). It was higher in January 2023 at 13.5 per cent.
Unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years or above declined to 3.1 per cent in 2023, the lowest in the last three years, as per a report of National Sample Survey Organisation under the statistics ministry. According to Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for calender year 2023, the unemployment rate came down to 3.1 per cent in 2023 from 3.6 per cent in 2022 and 4.2 per cent in 2021. Joblessness, or unemployment rate, is defined as the percentage of unemployed people in the labour force.
'it's not just youth in India who are left behind because of their inability to find jobs; nearly two-thirds of Indian women of working ages do not participate at all in the paid labour force.'
'...to think apna time aa gaya after the 2024 election.'
'Three manufacturing sectors can create jobs by the million: Apparel, food, and electronic assembly.' 'Let's talk to them and ask them what it would take to scale by a factor of ten,' suggests Naushad Forbes.
The share of women employed in regular salaried jobs in urban India hit a fresh low in the January-March quarter (Q4) of 2023-24 (FY24). In the same period, the share of women engaged in self-employment went up. An analysis of the latest quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data showed the share of women in regular wage work among all employed women stood at 52.3 per cent in Q4FY24, down from 53 per cent in the previous quarter.
Schemes like the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana strain fiscal resources amid rising unemployment and prices of food items.
'Till a few years ago, girls wouldn't take an autorickshaw alone. Now, things have improved.'
Home-grown FMCG major Dabur India on Thursday said it will set up a Rs 400-crore manufacturing plant in Tamil Nadu's Villupuram district, marking the company's maiden foray into the South. State Industries Minister TRB Rajaa said, Dabur has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the state government to this effect on Thursday. The MoU outlines an approved Phase 1 investment of Rs 135 crore, scaling up to Rs 400 crore over five years, Dabur India said in a statement.
'When manufacturing or even services cannot generate the kind of employment they are looking for, they prefer to be unemployed rather than under-employed.'
As more companies ask their employees to return to office after the pandemic, the share of women employed in regular salaried jobs in urban India decreased from 54 per cent in the first quarter to 52.8 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year, according to the quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data. The slump in the share is the lowest in wage employment in any quarter in the last six years when the National Statistical Office started releasing the quarterly PLFS surveys in Q3 of FY19. The share of women in wage work was highest in Q1 of FY21 at 61.2 per cent.
'The policy focus of the government should have been on creating more good quality jobs but that was not their focus.'
'Generating employment requires a shift in policy.' 'If not, the country will face economic, social and political challenges in the coming years.'
Playing down reports of a poor response to removal of the decades-old one-child policy, China on Tuesday said that besides generating a labour force of 30 million by 2050, the new policy could also boost stagnating growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Illegal immigration, he said, has resulted in crime, corruption and inflation.
China's demographic problem due to ageing population is showing up as the labour force for first time has decreased by 3.45 million last year, prompting officials to appeal to the new leadership to devise "appropriate and scientific" population policy.
'Over the next 20 years, we would be adding almost 10 million people to the workforce every year!' 'And we won't be able to give employment to even 2 million out of the 10 million every year.' 'Don't forget, it keeps adding every year.'
According to the World Bank, economic growth in middle-income countries, including India, is not accelerating. 'In fact, it is slowing down as incomes increase, with the trend becoming more pronounced each decade.'
India's unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above was recorded at a six-year low of 3.2 per cent during July 2022-June 2023, as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2022-2023 released by the National Sample Survey Office. Joblessness or unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of unemployed persons in the labour force. Considering the importance of the availability of labour force data at more frequent time intervals, the NSSO launched the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) in April 2017.
India is not reaping the benefits of demographic dividends, former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said on Tuesday, emphasising that there is a need to focus on improving the human capital and enhancing their skill sets. "I think we are in the midst of it (demographic dividend), but the problem is we are not reaping the benefits," Rajan said at a conference on "Making India an Advanced Economy by 2047: What Will it Take" at the George Washington University in Washington DC. "That's why I said 6 per cent growth.
While the country's unemployment rate is falling, the quality of employment seems to have taken a hit. The pace of formalisation slowed in the five months of the current financial year (April-August) with more than half a million fewer formal jobs created in the period compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). The payroll data showed that cumulatively 4.92 million new subscribers joined the social security organisation between April-August this year, compared to 5.51 million subscribers in the same period in the previous year, reflecting a 10.7 per cent decline in the number of new payrolls created.
'Efforts are on to make the data readily available so that it proves useful for policymakers.'
'The noise that we are hearing is because the five big IT players are not hiring significantly.'
In 2022-2023, 15.5 per cent of women were unemployed compared to 11.2 per cent in 2017-2018. For every one woman employed, 10 men got a job.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
'The government should come back as a job creator as it did in the 1960s and the 1970s.'
The quality of employment has deteriorated in 12 of the 21 major states and Union Territories, as the proportion of workers in regular or salaried jobs declined between July 2022 and June 2023 compared to the previous year, according to a Business Standard analysis of the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) released by the National Statistical Office. Assam experienced the most significant decline in the share of workers in salaried work, dropping by 8.7 percentage points to 10.8 per cent in the July 2002-June 2023 period from 19.5 per cent in the July 2021-June 2022 period. This was followed by Delhi (6.2 percentage points), Uttarakhand (5.2 percentage points), and Chhattisgarh (1.6 percentage points).
This is the full text of the address to the nation by President Droupadi Murmu on the eve of India's 78th Independence Day.
Urban employment rate increased to 34.96 per cent in February. This is the highest employment rate recorded in urban India since September 2020.
With the reality of coalition politics staring the BJP in its face, this was inevitable, points out Ramesh Menon.
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