For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'The CM kept his cool, but his adviser was liberal with filthy language.' Tamal Bandyopadhyay recreates the diary of a general manager in a public sector bank, providing a glimpse of how they balance their work and life.
Believe it or not, the regulator is even stretching its arm to identify stressed borrowers and gauge the 'distance to default' as a measure of a particular bank's fragility, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Banks do extensive investigation before declaring an account fraud; they owe it to us as they deal with our money. Why would they try to fix an innocent borrower? asks Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The difference between what the banks play in the US and India is not that of soccer and football but rugby and football. SVB also has a unique character. But when risks are mispriced, the fallout could be very similar, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
When he didn't respond (Mr Saver has lost count of how many relationship managers he has had in the past few years!), the gentleman landed up at his doorstep and started pleading with him to open fixed deposits with the bank, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The drop in net interest margin will separate the men from the boys, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
While the collapse of a large financial intermediary can wreak havoc on the system because of the interconnectivity, a large business conglomerate too can play spoilsport if the banks have too much exposure to the entity, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das kept the red flag on cryptocurrencies flying, warning that the next financial crisis can be triggered by private cryptocurrencies if such speculative instruments are allowed to grow.
The growth opportunity for a business, people running the business, governance structure at a company, technology adoption and the firm's belief in frugality are the list of priorities which should be considered before choosing a stock to invest in, Jhunjunwala said.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Employees across segments, including those involved in specialised jobs such as technology, compliance and risk management, have started leaving the bank fold in hordes, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Since the beginning of 2020, i-bankers have collected nearly Rs 1,800 crore by way of IPO fees. Interestingly, the India fees this year form just 1 per cent of the global fee pool of $13.7 billion from IPOs.
The RBI refuses to classify a cryptocurrency as an asset since it doesn't have future cash flow and its value is always fluctuating because of speculation. There is also no consumer protection, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay, and hence the e-rupee trial run.
That's the only way to convince those who have money to return to the bank fold, ditching other asset classes, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Collectively, the pack of 12 has posted a 50 per cent rise in profits -- Rs 25,685 crore. On a quarter-on-quarter basis (that is, September over June), the rise is 68 per cent. Public sector banks have never had such a stellar performance, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In Chanda's defence, one can always say, why would the Videocon Group take care of her husband as a quid pro quo to get a loan? After all, the group has taken money from the entire banking industry and ICICI Bank's share in the pie is not even 10 per cent. So, if it had a quid pro quo with Chanda to get the money, it must have had similar arrangements with other banks, too. If this is not the case, one must accept that it had got money from all banks, including ICICI, without any under-the-table conditions, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Of the 2,562 customer complaints received between January 2020 and March 2021, a majority relate to illegal apps. At least two dozen suicide cases have been reported, perpetrated by the harassment by loan app operators, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Since the bankcuptcy law came into effect from December 2016, with every quarter, the recovery rate has progressively been going down, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Merely bringing down the government stake below 51% may not find any taker for the PSBs. The government must bring down its holding to at least 26%, recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In its scheme of things, tackling inflation now comes ahead of ensuring growth in the world's sixth largest economy, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The branch managers have come out of their glass cabins and the sellers' market has transformed into a buyers' market, but there is no end to the harassment of customers, asserts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
One thing is for sure: It smacks of the regulator's lack of confidence in the bank's board, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The currency market won't care for our moans, groans, cries and sighs. The rupee will find its own level, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
If the banks throw caution to the winds for building loan books, the hydra-headed bad loans may resurface and spoil the party, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
While a DFI will help banks derisk their loan portfolios, creation of a bad bank will clean up their balance sheets.
Indeed, there were frauds, and the politician-banker-industrialist nexus played a role in the rise of NPAs, but governance issues in Indian banking are far more nuanced and complex, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Many banks' profits will take a hit and a few of them could even end up being in the red because of treasury losses, triggered by a sudden spike in government bond yields in the rising interest rate cycle, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
We'll need to wait a couple of years to see how many restructured loans turn bad and whether some banks fall victim to their obsession for growth, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The primary market is set for a bumper Rs 80,000-crore bonanza with 30 companies already filing IPO papers to raise Rs 55,000 crore, while around 10 more are lined up for this month itself, seeking to mop up another Rs 25,000 crore, say investment bankers. The market has been on a non-stop rally, hitting new records almost every week, on the back of an influx of investors -- a vast majority of them first-timers -- coupled with a flood of liquidity. Foreign funds alone had pumped in a record $35 billion into the market in FY21, while the trend has continued this fiscal as well. Domestic institutions led by LIC have also infused trillions of rupees, helping woo retail investors in troves -- the year saw over 20 million new investors coming to the market.
Shifting to floating rate deposits can work as an anaesthetic gel for some customers, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Flush with liquidity, banks are eager to lend. And, therein lies the problem, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Your promise to protect bankers for their commercial decisions is a huge confidence booster, but how does one define a commercial decision? Are our investigative agencies well equipped to dissect lending decisions of bankers?
With the rise in interest rates, bond yields have been on the rise; this will dent banks' treasury profits. Also, many retail borrowers may find it difficult to service their loans when the loan rates rise, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
But there are challenges, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The government plans to bring down its stake to 26 per cent in these two banks, which are yet to be identified. This may not come in the way of getting investors for these banks, provided the government is willing to step back rather than run them the way it had been doing for over five decades since these banks were nationalised, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Unlike any other national asset, which is typically sold to the highest bidder, the profile of the bidder is the most important criterion for a licence to bank, and even for acquiring more than 5 per cent stake, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
New norms are in place to strengthen regulations for this set of lenders which has been playing a critical role in Asia's third largest economy, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Why can't we have a sunset clause for the ARCs, which is a global norm? questions Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
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