The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
Ahead of the 2023-24 Union Budget, the thinking at the top level of the central government is clear: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6-6.5 per cent is a comfortable enough target for FY24 and the focus should be on fiscal consolidation to ensure that the sovereign cost of borrowing does not become prohibitively expensive in a high-interest rate environment, according to people in the know. Those aware of deliberations between the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Finance said while the Budget would look to strike a balance between infrastructure investment and welfare schemes, it is unlikely to be populist, though it will be the last full-year Budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Incidentally, 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth is what the upcoming 2022-23 Economic Survey is expected to project for FY24.
China will not be allowed to use the southern port of Hambantota for military purposes, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe has said, apparently attempting to allay fears in India and the United States about China's increasing maritime presence in the strategic Indo-Pacific region.
Ajay Banga was on Wednesday appointed the next president of the World Bank, becoming the first-ever Indian-American to head the global financial institution which said it looks forward to working with him at a time when it's tackling the toughest development challenges facing developing countries. "The executive directors of the World Bank today selected Ajay Banga as president of the World Bank for a five-year term beginning June 2, 2023," the bank said in a press statement. In February, President Joe Biden announced that the US would be nominating Banga, 63, to lead the World Bank because he is "well equipped" to lead the global institution at "this critical moment in history."
Union Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said speaking Hindi gives her 'shivers' and she speaks the language with hesitation.
The IMF on Tuesday cut India's economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year, with its chief economist Gita Gopinath saying that the slight downgrade is mainly due to the impact of the spread of the Omicron variant. "If you look at the 2021-22 fiscal year, we have a slight downgrade of -0.5 percentage points and for the next fiscal year 2022-23 we have a slight upgrade of 0.5 percentage points. So, growth for the previous fiscal year is now nine per cent and for this year now is at nine per cent. We moved it up slightly," Gopinath told reporters during a news conference in Washington. In its latest update of World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund has cut India's economic growth forecast to 9 per cent for the current fiscal year ending March 31, joining a host of agencies which have downgraded their projections on concerns over the impact of the spread of Omicron on business activity and mobility.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
India's external debt rose by 8.2 per cent year-on-year to $620.7 billion as of March 2022, which according to the finance ministry is sustainable. While 53.2 per cent of it was denominated in the US dollar, Indian rupee-denominated debt, estimated at 31.2 per cent, was the second largest, as per the status report on India's external debt released by the ministry. "India's external debt continues to be sustainable and prudently managed. As of end-March 2022, it stood at $620.7 billion, growing by 8.2 per cent over the level a year ago.
Doggedly persisting with its much-criticised zero-Covid policy, China has slipped deeper into the coronavirus quagmire as it reported a record 31,444 infections on Thursday with many of its cities, including Beijing, resorting to community lockdowns to stem the virus amid worsening wintery weather.
India will grow at around 7.4 per cent in 2022-23 and continue at the same pace in the next year as well, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday. Sitharaman said there are risks on the external front and this is not the right time to throw caution to the wind, and also assured exporters of all the necessary support from the government as they face the headwinds. Speaking at the FE Best Bank Awards event here, Sitharaman said global agencies like IMF and the World Bank have taken cognisance of the strengths of the Indian economy by saying that it will be among the fastest growing ones in the next two years.
The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.865 billion to a record high of $592.894 billion for the week ended May 21, boosted by gold and currency assets, RBI data showed on Friday. The previous all-time high for the forex kitty was $590.185 billion for the week ended January 29, 2021. For the previous week ended May 14, the reserves had increased by $563 million to reach $590.028 billion.
Pakistan will remain on the 'grey list' of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) until it further demonstrates that action is being taken against Jamaat-ud-Dawah chief Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammed founder Masood Azhar who are listed as global terrorists by the United Nations, the global anti-money laundering and terror financing watchdog said on Thursday.
The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $563 million to reach $590.028 billion in the week ended May 14, RBI data showed on Friday. The reserves had touched a lifetime high of $590.185 billion in the week ended January 29, 2021. In the previous week ended May 7, 2021, the reserves had increased by $1.444 billion to $589.465 billion.
The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $758 million to reach a record high of $586.082 billion in the week ended January 8, RBI data showed on Friday. In the previous week ended January 1, the reserves had increased by $4.483 billion to $585.324 billion.
The silver lining for India's presidency is likely to be the support by almost all G20 countries to its proposal to include the African Union as a permanent member of the bloc that has emerged as perhaps the most influential multilateral forum after the United Nations.
Notably, Ukrainian forces disabling bridges across the Dnipro river and attacking Russian supply lines made it very difficult for Russia to defend the occupied territory.
Gauba is said to be the key architect of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act under which Jammu and Kashmir was divided into two Union territories following the abrogation of the special status given to the erstwhile state under Article 370 of the Constitution.
The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.701 billion to $584.107 billion in the week ended April 23, 2021, RBI data showed. In the previous week ended April 16, 2021, the reserves had risen by $1.193 billion to $582.406 billion. The reserves had touched a lifetime high of $590.185 billion in the week ended January 29, 2021.
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
The country's foreign exchange reserves declined by a massive $6.24 billion to reach $583.945 billion in the week ended February 5, RBI data showed on Friday. In the previous week, the reserves had touched a record high of $590.185 billion after rising by $4.852 billion. In the reporting week ended February 5, the decline in the forex kitty was mainly on account of a fall in foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves.
The country's foreign exchange reserves soared by $16.663 billion to touch a lifetime high of $633.56 billion in the week ended August 27, mainly due to an increase in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) holdings, RBI data showed. On Wednesday, RBI had said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made an allocation of SDR 12.57 billion (equivalent to around $17.86 billion at the latest exchange rate) to India on August 23, 2021. SDR holdings are part of the foreign exchange reserves of a country.
India will encourage greater investments in Sri Lanka's economy, especially in areas of energy, tourism and infrastructure, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on Friday, as he expressed India's solidarity with the debt-ridden Island nation during its "difficult moments".
With a narrow industrial base and dysfunctional politics, and a counter-productive national security agenda, Pakistan could well remain an 'international migraine', observes T N Ninan.
It would be a difficult task for the Indian economy to reach the $5-trillion mark a year before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of 2026-27. Pankaj Chaudhary, minister of state for finance, said in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the government is taking steps to make the country a $5-trillion economy at a date earlier than the IMF's projection. In that context, it would not be difficult to meet the projection in the third quarter of FY27.
The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.739 billion to $582.037 billion in the week ended on March 12, the RBI data showed. In the previous week ended March 5, the reserves had declined by $4.255 billion to $580.299 billion. The reserves had touched a record high of $590.185 billion in the week ended January 29, 2021.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
The country's foreign exchange reserves rose $183 million to touch a record high of $560.715 billion in the week ended October 30, RBI data showed on Friday. In the previous week ended October 23, the reserves had jumped $5.412 billion to $560.532 billion.
Extreme poverty in India declined by 12.3 percentage points between 2011 and 2019, with rural areas doing better than urban centres, according to a working paper of the World Bank. India has not released a new household consumption survey since the NSS from 2011. By extension, the country has not released any official estimates of poverty and inequality for over a decade now, added the paper co-authored by economists Sutirtha Sinha Roy and Roy van der Weide.
'A stable and strong Pakistan with an anti-India mindset and hatred is not good for us.'
India's forex reserves increased for the second consecutive week, touching $584.554 billion as of February 26, up by $689 million, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. The overall reserves had increased by $169 million to $583.865 billion in the previous reporting week. The reserves, which have been steadily increasing over the last few months, had touched an all-time high at $590.185 billion for the week ended January 29 this year.
A statement from the finance ministry said, 'it shall be the policy of the Sri Lankan government to suspend normal debt servicing...shall apply to amounts of affected debts outstanding on April 12, 2022'.
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
The country's foreign exchange reserves fell by $249 million to $583.697 billion in the week ended February 12, RBI data showed on Friday. In the previous week, the reserves had declined by $6.24 billion to stand at $583.945 billion. It had touched a record high of $590.185 billion in the week ended January 29, 2021.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
A high-tech Chinese research ship docked at the strategically important Hambantota port departed from Sri Lankan waters on Monday after a controversial six-day visit.
The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.518 billion to touch a lifetime high of $575.29 billion in the week ended November 20, RBI data showed on Friday. In the previous week ended November 13, the reserves had surged by $4.277 billion to $572.771 billion. In the reporting week, the increase in the forex kitty was on account of a rise in foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
Gold reserves rose by $321 million in the reporting week to $37.521 billion.
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