The Indian government has extended the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mandate to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a tolerance band of 2 per cent on either side, for another five years until March 2031.
Almost a decade after India shifted to a formal inflation-targeting regime under the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a high-level panel of economists said that the flexible inflation targeting has largely worked in keeping it under control and no major revamp is required.
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
"Our endeavour is to bring headline inflation in line with the target over the medium term," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, addressing concerns about the central bank's policy stance and economic outlook.
Members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have indicated that interest rate hikes may be necessary sooner rather than later, as headline inflation is projected to rise from its current benign levels in the coming months, according to the minutes of the August review.
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, driven primarily by costlier food items, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4 per cent for the first time under the new series.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.45 per cent in July, up from 4.38 per cent in June, primarily due to higher food prices, particularly onions and ginger. This marks the second consecutive month the inflation rate has remained above the Reserve Bank's median target.
A new report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) indicates that inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy have become more significant drivers of gold prices than traditional geopolitical conflicts, with markets increasingly focusing on these economic factors.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting, prioritising clarity on inflation trends, particularly concerning energy costs and geopolitical developments.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced plans to launch long-lasting polymer currency notes by the next financial year. He also discussed the central bank's data-dependent approach to interest rates, its focus on aligning inflation with the 4 per cent target, and the orderly trajectory of the rupee amidst geopolitical tensions.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged in the August monetary policy review, with economists citing elevated inflation risks and the pending closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme as key factors. Most anticipate a 'Neutral' policy stance but with a hawkish tone due to geopolitical tensions, high crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon.
The Indian government has approved the introduction of one billion polymer banknotes in Rs 10 and Rs 20 denominations for field trials, aiming to enhance durability. This move comes as the Finance Minister also addressed Parliament on declining retail inflation, GST reforms, and other fiscal measures taken to support the economy and household consumption.
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile with a corrective bias as investors assess the latest flare-up in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and inflation data, which could reshape expectations for global interest rates, according to analysts.
India's finance ministry anticipates inflation will remain relatively contained in the coming months, supported by a correction in crude oil prices and softening input costs following the cessation of the West Asia conflict, despite earlier spikes in wholesale and retail inflation.
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) reported Q1FY27 results showing significant margin pressures at both Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) and its domestic operations, despite strong volume growth in the India business. Analysts expect these margin headwinds to persist, potentially offsetting gains from increased sales and new launches.
Voltas has announced a joint venture with Atomberg Innovation to manufacture high-efficiency room air conditioner (RAC) compressors, aiming to strengthen localisation and supply-chain resilience. Despite significant volume growth in RACs, the company's margins remain a key concern for analysts.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
India Inc's first-quarter earnings season was significantly impacted by the West Asia conflict, leading to rising costs, calibrated price increases, and margin pressures across various sectors including FMCG, automotive, steel, and cement. Companies are implementing price hikes to protect profitability, with many anticipating further escalations if input costs remain elevated.
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
The Reserve Bank of India has increased its retail inflation projection for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. This revision is primarily attributed to mounting input costs, driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic petrol and diesel rates, which have seen significant increases since May.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
Indian passenger vehicle manufacturers are significantly increasing production and stocking dealerships in anticipation of strong festival season demand, with new launches planned and supply bottlenecks being addressed. However, the industry faces potential moderation in growth during the second half of FY27 due to a high base from last year's post-GST surge, commodity inflation, and elevated inventory levels.
Start SIPs early, increase investments steadily, and let compounding beat inflation to secure retirement wealth, says Ramalingam Kalirajan
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
With the next review of the flexible inflation target (FIT) framework coming up soon, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said the current inflation target of 4 per cent with a +/-2 per cent tolerance band is appropriate for the next five years. The country adopted the FIT framework in 2016, and the next review of the inflation target is due before March 31, 2021. "The current numerical framework for defining price stability, i.e., an inflation target of 4 per cent with a +/-2 per cent tolerance band, is appropriate for the next five years," the RBI said in the Report on Currency and Finance (RCF) for the year 2020-21.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, acknowledging robust growth prospects and strong external finances. However, the agency highlighted concerns over elevated government debt, lagging structural metrics, and potential fiscal spending pressures due to rising youth unemployment.
The panel was set up to suggest ways to reform India's monetary policy.
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) reported a mixed Q1 FY27, with record quarterly sales driving strong revenue growth, but operating performance was below expectations due to higher commodity and other costs impacting margins. Brokerages anticipate sustained sales growth for the company in the current fiscal year, supported by new launches, robust demand, and significant capacity expansion.
Tata Consumer Products reported healthy revenue growth in Q1 FY27, driven by its India branded business and accelerating momentum in newer segments, which are now expected to sustain double-digit sales growth and improve profitability.
An intensified DVAC probe into a multi-crore liquor scam, allegedly involving former DMK Minister V Senthil Balaji, has led to a suggestion to privatise retail liquor sales in Tamil Nadu. The investigation targets alleged collusion in TASMAC bar licences, transport tenders, and procurement, with the Madras High Court dismissing Balaji's anticipatory bail plea. The FIR details systemic corruption, significant revenue loss, and illicit fund generation, prompting political reactions.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Maharashtra Cyber Police have identified over 500 social media profiles involved in a coordinated cross-border disinformation campaign during a recent nationwide protest. The campaign used AI-generated and deepfake content to manipulate public perception and provoke unrest, with technical analysis pointing to elements operating from Pakistan and Middle Eastern countries. Legal action has been initiated, and the public is urged to verify information from credible sources.
Sahil Kapoor of Edelweiss Retail Capital Market Research says that setting up a monetary policy committee should have been the first step. And the central bank could have moved towards a formal inflation targeting mechanism after the processes and data sets are in place.
Mahindra & Mahindra's Q1FY27 results missed consensus estimates due to declining gross margins, but strong demand for its SUV portfolio and strategic price hikes are expected to drive near-term gains, particularly in the auto segment, despite headwinds in farm equipment.
The government maintained a strong pace of capital expenditure, which jumped nearly 24 per cent to Rs 3.40 trillion in April-June.
Moody's on Thursday said the new 'inflation targeting' mechanism is a "credit positive" move.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6.6 per cent from an earlier 6.9 per cent, primarily attributing the change to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. Despite this moderation, India is still expected to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy.
